Mobile phone networks that include internet access - wireless telephony's so-called third generation or "3G" - have been a magnet for irrational exuberance in the telecoms sector over the last decade. Despite all the hype about the "convergence" of phones and personal computers, commercially viable 3G networks have been slow to emerge. In an attempt to give Chinese telecoms equipment makers a leg up in what was expected to be a lucrative market in supplying hardware and handsets for these networks, China decided in the late 1990s to launch its own home-grown 3G technology standard. Today this techno-nationalist gambit looks increasingly like an expensive failure, and 3G mobile networks may prove as disappointing in China as everywhere else. But amid this botched effort, an unanticipated success story has emerged: Chinese telecoms equipment firms have carved out a profitable global niche for themselves selling cost-effective systems based on existing international standards. China's 3G adventure began in the late 1990s, when the industry overlord, the Ministry of Information Industry (MII), surveyed the telecoms world and saw that it was not good. Chinese telecoms equipment makers had already spent $20bn on royalties to the holders of patents underlying first-generation mobile telephony networks (i.e., telecom equipment firms like Ericsson and Qualcomm). They were well on their way to shelling out an even more enormous sum (about $50 bn by the end of 2007) to the patent-holders controlling the dominant 2G standards, GSM and CDMA. MII concluded that the best way to end this techno-colonialism and climb the value chain would be for China to develop its own 3G standard. The stakes were high: for a patent-less equipment firm, royalty payments can reach 15% of the retail price of a 3G handset, according to an industry insider. Multiply that times half a billion handsets, and it's easy to see the appeal of a domestic standard. The Chinese standard's underlying technology, developed by state-owned Datang Telecom Technology, is fundamentally solid. But Chinese equipment manufacturers lacked experience developing a new standard from scratch. Even with help from outside firms like Siemens, which has participated in developing the standard, a process that ought to have taken four or five years is still grinding on in year 10. Meanwhile, the European and American 3G standards - WCDMA and CDMA2000 - reached technical maturity and commercial deployment. According to Beijing, technical setbacks to the home-grown standard are not to blame for the delay in issuing 3G licenses. Instead, MII claims that 3G networks around the world have proved expensive failures. Until there is a proven 3G business model, it says, there is no reason to issue licenses. The explanation is self-serving but also contains more than a grain of truth. The global wireless revolution that 3G was supposed to usher in has not materialized. In 2000, European wireless carriers spent a whopping $129bn for 3G spectrum licenses alone, an investment now widely viewed as a debacle. The big reason that 3G hasn't taken off is that internet users are now accustomed to the speeds they enjoy with broadband connections on their PCs. They are reluctant to pay hefty fees for more sluggish 3G data services. This may be an insuperable technological barrier for 3G: CDMA, the basic technology underlying all 3G standards, was originally designed for voice, not data, so there are limits to the web-browsing and download speeds of any 3G service. At UK-based Vodafone, whose equity interests in 25 countries make it the world's second-largest mobile telecom carrier behind ChinaMobile, data services (excluding short messages) accounted for just 6% of total revenues in the year to September. Regardless of how well the Chinese 3G standard fares in China, it is now virtually certain that MII's dreams of Chinese equipment manufacturers marketing the Chinese standard abroad will not be realised. This is not necessarily bad news for the Chinese industry. MII exaggerated the ability of domestic equipment manufacturers to establish a new wireless standard for the world. But it vastly underrated those same firms' ability to grab global market share using established standards. In recent years, China's top two telecoms equipment firms, Huawei and ZTE, have enjoyed spectacular revenue growth from contracts to install or upgrade traditional wireless networks in international markets. Nearly two-thirds of Huawei's revenue now comes from outside China, in markets as diverse as Russia, Venezuela, Nigeria, Colombia, Morocco and Saudi Arabia. In the first half of 2007, foreign revenues accounted for 48% of ZTE's revenues, up from 15% in 2004. Chinese telecoms firms still ring up most of their sales in the more price-conscious developing world, but their mere presence trims margins even in rich countries. Network operators in Europe and North America cite price quotes from Chinese manufacturers in negotiations with their top-tier western rivals. Moreover, the Chinese advantage is not all about price. Five years ago, Huawei mainly sold copycat versions of international vendors' costlier equipment. Today its equipment boasts unique proprietary features. The lesson of the success of Huawei and ZTE is that innovation and the profits that flow from it are not usually a matter of producing a radically new technical standard or technological breakthrough. The most lucrative innovations are those that deploy existing technology in ways that better meet the needs of the market. 62903293 Document FTCOM00020080317e43h0002c
MARKETS & DATA
Platts Oilgram News Selective Index: February 25, 2008 - March 7, 2008
5,130 words
11 March 2008
Platts Oilgram News
PON
10
Volume 86, Issue 50
English
(c) 2008 McGraw-Hill, Inc. Platts Oilgram News Selective Index: February 25, 2008 - March 7, 2008
Date Page
COMPANIES
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