2011 State of the Future

C2-5 Round 2 - Invitation and Questionnaire with Draft Scenarios

AC/UNU Millennium Project - Millennium 3000 Round 2
Dear Colleague,
Thank you for your participation in Round 1 of the Millennium 3000 panel. As you remember, the Millennium Project of the American Council for the United Nations University in cooperation with The Foundation for the Future collected foreseeable factors that might significantly affect the next 1000 years. You and your colleagues on the Millennium 3000 panel rated these factors as to: a) how plausible it is that the factor will influence the human condition 1000 years from today; b) assuming that the factor does occur, how important its effect might be on the human condition; and c) ability of human intervention such as policy and/or funding to affect that factor’s trajectory. The results are enclosed for your review and further comments.
Round 1 also asked about the factor’s likely trajectory, benchmarks of its development, and some possible unexpected or low probability consequences. We used these views to construct draft scenario sketches to the year 3000. Six scenario sketches are enclosed:
Scenario 1. Still Alive at 3000

Scenario 2. End of Humanity and the Rise of Phoenix

Scenario 3. It’s About Time

Scenario 4. The Great Divides

Scenario 5. The Rise and Fall of the Robot Empire

Scenario 6. ETI Disappoints after 9 Centuries

This second and final questionnaire asks for your additions, edits, corrections, and comments, on these scenarios. You are also asked -- in the space proved at the end of each scenario -- to list a fundamentally important question or two that arises due to the scenario. You do not have to comment on all six scenarios. The results will be published in the next State of the Future and may be published in Foundation for the Future reports and used as input to the Humanity 3000 Conference in August 2000. No attributions will be made without permission, but your name will be listed in the State of the Future as a participant.
Please return the enclosed questionnaire by March 15, 2000. You do not need to return the entire questionnaire with all the scenarios. You can simply give your responses with the appropriate scenario number. If you do add material to the text of the scenarios, then please do so in UPPER CASE so that it will be easy to find your edits. We prefer email your responses, because faxes of hand written or typed responses can be misunderstood or mis-entered. This questionnaire can also be download from: html.
Please contact us with any questions. We look forward to including your views.

Sincerely yours,

Jerome C. Glenn and Theodore J. Gordon

co-directors, AC/UNU Millennium Project

Summary of rating from Round 1
The first round respondents’ scoring of the factors was computed as the product of probability, importance, and priority. The table below ranks the factors by this index. The number in Parentheses next to each factor is the number the sequence of the factor as listed in the Round 1.

Very Long-Range Factors	Prob	Import	Priority	Index
Human-Environment Dynamics (3)	4.114	4.163	4.095	70.133
Human Genetics (11)	4.302	3.951	4.098	69.655
Safe Energy (4)	3.753	4.250	4.341	69.240
Nanotechnology (5)	4.311	3.814	3.930	64.618
Forms of Movement (6)	3.091	4.429	4.000	54.760
Increasing Intelligence (13)	3.667	4.024	3.548	52.354
Occurrence Climate Change (2)	3.761	3.977	3.444	51.514
Control Forces to Destroy Humanity(7)	2.891	4.341	3.788	47.539
Conscious Technology (12)	3.545	3.548	3.738	47.015
Collective Futures (9)	3.111	3.744	3.476	40.487
Avoid Climate Change (1)	2.844	4.163	3.233	38.277
Gender Relation (16)	3.444	3.520	3.088	37.435
Philosophy and Mental Maps (8)	3.000	3.538	3.308	35.111
Conscious Evolution (14)	2.974	3.556	3.222	34.074
Space migration (18)	3.093	2.977	3.651	33.618
Global Ethical System (10)	2.930	3.100	3.525	32.018
Extraterrestrial Contact (7)	2.359	3.876	2.811	25.702
Immortality (15)	2.643	2.825	2.825	21.093
Interspecies Communication (19)	2.425	2.744	3.051	20.302

The views on the trajectory of these factors comprise approximately 100 pages. You can download them at http://millennium-project/millennium/m3000-rd1res.html. If you wish to make further comment on these factors or the textual results of round 1 please send them with your comments on the scenarios.

Now, please read scenarios 1-6 and add your comments in the space provided at the end of each.
Editor's Note: As these scenarios are the draft version of the scenarios from Section 3, were not included in this appendix. However, they are available on the Millennium Project's web site, direct address: < http://www.geocities.com/acunu/millennium/m3000-rd2.html>
For each scenario the participants were asked to suggest "Additions, Edits, Corrections, Comments, and Key questions this bring up."
Also, the participants were asked to suggest "What scenario(s) is(are) not included in this set of six that should be to show a range of thinking about the very long-range future for humanity?"