2011 State of the Future

Real-Time Delphi

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For new users, please log in with the user name of your choosing to begin using RT Delphi. (Please remember this for future visits to the site; it is case sensitive. For previous users, please log in with your user name.

RT Delphi allows a group of users to develop a matrix of potential decisions and to test them against a set of criteria to help identify the best decision among those that are being considered.

In the process of completing this assessment you will be asked to:

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  Consider alternative decisions to a problem about which your judgment is important.
  
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  Review the list of selection criteria and assess their weights.
  
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  Provide judgments about how each alternative decision meets each criterion, in full consideration of the emerging judgment of the group and justifications that have been provided by others.
  

Consensus is not a requirement, but users should think carefully when their weights or criteria are very different than that of the group as a whole. If you have questions or comments, please email: [e-mail]

After the sign in page, respondents were shown the following:

A series of new global energy scenarios will be written on the basis of responses to this questionnaire. You are invited to provide judgments about statements that will help construct those scenario, such as:

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  Estimates of when certain developments may occur.
  
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  Narrative suggestions about elements that should be considered for the scenarios
  
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  Expectations about the contribution of various energy sources
  
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  Recommendations for energy policies.
  

Please answer only those questions about which you are expert or feel comfortable; “no comment” will be an acceptable answer. Your answers will remain anonymous although your name will be listed in the final report as a participant. Leaving sections blank is a very acceptable answer.

Input to this questionnaire will end on January 21, 2006. Should you wish to use an alternate format for the questionnaire, please go to http://www.acunu.org/millennium/energy-delphi.html .

This questionnaire refers to four scenario themes:

1. 
   Business as usual. This scenario assumes that the global dynamics of change continue without great surprises or much change in energy sources and consumption patterns other than those that might be expected as a result of the change dynamics already in place.
   
2. 
   Environmental backlash. This scenario assumes that the international environmental movement becomes much more organized; some lobbying for legal actions and new regulations and suing in courts, while others become violent and attack fossil energy industries.
   
3. 
   High tech economy. This scenario assumes that technological innovations accelerate beyond current expectations, and have impacts in the energy supply mix and consumption patterns, to a similar magnitude as the Internet initiated in the 1990s.
   
4. 
   Political turmoil. This scenario assumes increasing conflicts, wars, and several countries collapsing into failed states, leading to increasing migrations and political instabilities around the world.
   

Some factors are common to all scenarios, although they may differ in importance and magnitude. You are invited to judge how they differ.

Questions are presented in the form of matrixes and each cell in these matrixes contains the following information

AVG. = the average quantitative response so far

Responses = the number of responses so far

Your input (using a pull down menu)

Reasons = Click here to see reasons others have given for their answers

AND TO PROVIDE REASONS OF YOUR OWN.

When you see a red cell in a matrix it means your answers differ considerably from the average and your reasons for having a different view are particularly invited.

These instructions could be turned off by the respondents to avoid seeing them repeatedly each time they signed on.
The questions themselves were presented in four sections. In the following presentation, all four sections are illustrated but only the first ten entries are shown.

Section 1.

Please provide your judgments about the dates you think the following events might occur in each scenario. Please use the scale that appears on the pull down menus:

Never

After 2030

2025- 2030

2020- 2025

2015- 2020

2010- 2015

2005- 2010

Already happened

No comment

When you provide your reasons or comments, please keep your comments short while still communicating your judgments; all participants will see the text as you enter it.

NOTE THAT YOU MUST CLICK "SAVE" AT THE BOTTOM OF THE PAGE FOR YOUR INPUT TO BE RECORDED AND BEFORE YOU PROVIDE YOUR REASONS. AFTER YOU HAVE ADDED REASONS, HIT "SAVE" AGAIN

The last row of the matrix invites your additional suggestions. Click on suggestions and a page will open for you to enter other developments that you think should be considered in constructing the scenarios. You may enter as many new developments as you like.

Four Alternative Scenarios for the year 2020

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User: tedjgordon

.	Business as usual	Environmental Backlash	High Tech Economy	Political Turmoil
1.01. Hubbert Peak when half the conventional oil is gone (but conventional may one day in the future include deep drilling, tar sands, and shale)	Avg.: 2020- 2025 Responses: 19 Comments	Avg.: 2025- 2030 Responses: 15 Comments	Avg.: 2025- 2030 Responses: 16 Comments	Avg.: 2015- 2020 Responses: 15 Comments
1.03. First demonstration of cost-effective generation and delivery of base load electricity from solar earth orbital satellites	Avg.: 2025- 2030 Responses: 15 Comments	Avg.: 2025- 2030 Responses: 15 Comments	Avg.: 2020- 2025 Responses: 13 Comments	Avg.: 2025- 2030 Responses: 13 Comments
1.04. A solution is found for long-term safe storage or destruction of radioactive waste	Avg.: 2025- 2030 Responses: 16 Comments	Avg.: 2020- 2025 Responses: 13 Comments	Avg.: 2020- 2025 Responses: 14 Comments	Avg.: 2025- 2030 Responses: 13 Comments
1.05. One million electric cars per year are produced, plurality manufactured in China	Avg.: 2020- 2025 Responses: 13 Comments	Avg.: 2020- 2025 Responses: 10 Comments	Avg.: 2015- 2020 Responses: 12 Comments	Avg.: 2025- 2030 Responses: 10 Comments
1.06. New credible fission technologies are developed to solve problems of nuclear generation; improved security, reduced risk of malfunction	Avg.: 2025- 2030 Responses: 11 Comments	Avg.: 2025- 2030 Responses: 8 Comments	Avg.: 2020- 2025 Responses: 9 Comments	Avg.: 2025- 2030 Responses: 8 Comments
1.07. High efficiency engines power 25 percent of new cars; e.g. using Stirling engines	Avg.: 2025- 2030 Responses: 11 Comments	Avg.: 2020- 2025 Responses: 7 Comments	Avg.: 2020- 2025 Responses: 8 Comments	Avg.: 2025- 2030 Responses: 8 Comments
1.08. 30 percent of electrical power is generated at the point of use	Avg.: After 2030 Responses: 13 Comments	Avg.: 2025- 2030 Responses: 11 Comments	Avg.: 2025- 2030 Responses: 13 Comments	Avg.: 2025- 2030 Responses: 12 Comments
1.09. Significant portions of urban centers in most major cities are closed to private vehicle traffic, or have a system of tolls for entry by cars.	Avg.: 2015- 2020 Responses: 14 Comments	Avg.: 2015- 2020 Responses: 12 Comments	Avg.: 2015- 2020 Responses: 14 Comments	Avg.: 2025- 2030 Responses: 12 Comments
1.10. The amount of energy consumed per dollar of GDP worldwide drops 25 percent from today’s value	Avg.: After 2030 Responses: 11 Comments	Avg.: 2020- 2025 Responses: 9 Comments	Avg.: 2020- 2025 Responses: 11 Comments	Avg.: 2025- 2030 Responses: 9 Comments

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