2011 State of the Future

Section 2.

Please provide your judgments about some factors that may add important details to the scenarios. In this matrix some initial suggestions are given for your reaction. Please click on suggestions to change the initial entry, add your own, or see the items others have suggested. Feel free to add suggestions that support or argue with the lists that appear. Your opinion is invited about what should be included in the final scenarios.

When you provide your reasons or comments, please keep your comments short while still communicating your judgments; participants will be able to see your text as you enter it.

Note that you must click "save" at the bottom of the page for your input to be recorded.

Four Alternative Scenarios for the year 2020

Top of Form

User: tedjgordon

.	Scenario 1. Business-as-Usual	Scenario 2. Environmental Backlash	Scenario 3. High Tech Economy	Scenario 4. Political Turmoil
2.01 Consider: Global GDP? World depressions? Recessions? Growth spurts? Accelerations?	Comments	Comments	Comments	Comments
2.02. Demand - per region and/or economic grouping (qualitative)	Comments	Comments	Comments	Comments
2.03. Economies successfully adapt to factor of 50 percent increase in energy prices without undue inflation	Comments	Comments	Comments	Comments
2.04. Changes in human values, wealth and expression of status	Comments	Comments	Comments	Comments
2.05. Motivations, social purposes	Comments	Comments	Comments	Comments
2.06. Global GDP/Capita	Comments	Comments	Comments	Comments
2.07. Possible price of oil in 2020 (in today US$)	Comments	Comments	Comments	Comments
2.08. Environmental Movement Impacts	Comments	Comments	Comments	Comments
2.09. Key environmental events/developments	Comments	Comments	Comments	Comments
2.10. Amount of carbon emissions (Nature processes 3 or 3.5 billion tons via trees, ocean algae. Today about 7 billion tons are emitted)	Comments	Comments	Comments	Comments

Bottom of Form

Section 3.

Please provide your estimates of the energy mix for the year 2020 assuming the "business as usual scenario."  If you wish to add estimates for the other scenarios, please use the appropriate columns.

In the top row, using the drop down menu, please provide an estimate of the total amount of energy likely to be provided in 2020 (in million tons of oil equivalents - Mtoe)

Primary energy sources (not electricity) and the percentage that these comprise of the total are listed in the left columns. For each of the given energy sources listed, please provide an estimate of the anticipated percentage in 2020 for each of the scenarios.

You do not have to fill in all the blank cells ? just those for which you feel comfortable proving your judgments. "No comment" is an acceptable answer. Please also add any comments about your estimate if you wish. For example, what might increase or decrease your estimate? Even if you do not provide an estimate, you are still most welcome to add comments about the status of that energy source for the 2020.

As mentioned, the first row requests your estimates of total energy produced in 2020 (in Mtoe). For the remainder of the rows, the drop down menus list the percentages that the energy source represents of that total.

Red cells indicate that your answer differs from the average by more than +/- 10%. Please provide your reasons where appropriate. Note that the last row of the matrix calls for your additions. Click on suggestions in that row and a page will open for you to list other energy sources that you think we should consider for the scenarios. You may enter as many as you like.

Top of Form

User: tedjgordon

.	Scenario 1. Business-as-Usual	Scenario 2. Environmental Backlash	Scenario 3. High Tech Economy	Scenario 4. Political Turmoil
3.01. Total Energy- All sources Current: 11,411 Mtoe	Avg.: 5-10% Responses: 3 Comments	Avg.: 1-5% Responses: 2 Comments	Avg.: 5-10% Responses: 3 Comments	Avg.: 10-20% Responses: 2 Comments
3.02 Oil (conventional ranges) Current: 32 percent	Avg.: 10-20% Responses: 7 Comments	Avg.: 20-30% Responses: 2 Comments	Avg.: 20-30% Responses: 2 Comments	Avg.: 30-40% Responses: 1 Comments
3.03. Unconventional sources (Tar sands and Shale) Current: greater than .1 percent	Avg.: less than 1% Responses: 5 Comments	Avg.: less than 1% Responses: 2 Comments	Avg.: 1-5% Responses: 2 Comments	Avg.: less than 1% Responses: 1 Comments
3.04. Natural Gas Current: 21 percent	Avg.: 20-30% Responses: 5 Comments	Avg.: 20-30% Responses: 2 Comments	Avg.: 20-30% Responses: 1 Comments	Avg.: 20-30% Responses: 1 Comments
3.05. Methane gas hydrates Current: 0 percent	Avg.: less than 1% Responses: 5 Comments	Avg.: less than 1% Responses: 2 Comments	Avg.: less than 1% Responses: 1 Comments	Avg.: less than 1% Responses: 1 Comments
3.06 Coal (conventional) Current: 24 percent	Avg.: 20-30% Responses: 6 Comments	Avg.: 20-30% Responses: 3 Comments	Avg.: 10-20% Responses: 2 Comments	Avg.: 20-30% Responses: 1 Comments
3.07. Coal processes total from liquefaction, oxygenated, gasification	Avg.: 1-5% Responses: 4 Comments	Avg.: 1-5% Responses: 2 Comments	Avg.: 1-5% Responses: 1 Comments	Avg.: 1-5% Responses: 1 Comments
3.08. Nuclear fission Current: 5.5 percent	Avg.: 5-10% Responses: 5 Comments	Avg.: 1-5% Responses: 2 Comments	Avg.: 1-5% Responses: 1 Comments	Avg.: 1-5% Responses: 1 Comments
3.09. Nuclear fusion Current: 0 percent	Avg.: less than 1% Responses: 4 Comments	Avg.: less than 1% Responses: 2 Comments	Avg.: less than 1% Responses: 2 Comments	Avg.: less than 1% Responses: 1 Comments
3.10 Solar (Photovoltaics on earth, solar power towers, solar thermal, and space solar power)	Avg.: 1-5% Responses: 5 Comments	Avg.: 5-10% Responses: 2 Comments	Avg.: 5-10% Responses: 2 Comments	Avg.: 1-5% Responses: 1 Comments

Bottom of Form