Link with FDPs and RDPs & Link with the WWRP Mesoscale WG
Frost FDP RDP
Hymex
Activities in Europe
EurEPS Project (SRNWP)
LAM-EPS meeting & LAMEPS BC project
EPS DA meeting > Bologna
High resolution precipitation analyses (HIPRECA)
Link with SRNWP Interoperability Programme
Activities in NA by Josh Hacker
Activities in Asia by Jing Chen
Activities in SA by Celeste Saulo
TIGGE LAM @ ….
TIGGE LAM overall activities
Restructuring of the Panel
The Panel has been (and is being) restructured trying to make it more efficient at Regional level.
New members have been asked to join the Panel to engage people personally involved in LAM EPS and then in the position to make plans and to take commitments.
The Panel has been divided in regional sub-groups:
Some more work done especially on the scientific issues.
Tiziana and Josh will revise it together during the SRNWP meeting in Tallin next month.
Plan on the web in November
Archiving
Archiving of high priority parameters on regular lat/lon grids.
CMA is starting the archiving of TIGGE LAM HP parameters from CMA Regional system.
The archiving of European products at ECMWF has been slowed down due to other priorities at ECMWF.
Archiving of TIGGE LAM products on their native grids
LAM EPS are going to run at the convective-permitting scale. Products on the native grids should be made available and tools to manage these data should be developed.
As regards Europe, this task has been included into the GEO-WOW FP7 < D. Richardson presentation
Link with FDPs and RDPs & Link with the WWRP Mesoscale WG
Link with FDPs and RDPs FROST-2014 Forecast and Research in the Olympic Sochi Testbed
FROST
FROST-2014 Forecast and Research in the Olympic Sochi Testbed
WG1: Observations and nowcasting (including Verification)
Members: Arcadi Koldaev, Yury Melnichuk, Yong Wang, Paul Joe, George Isaac, Roy Rasmussen, Dmitri Moisseev, Peter Romanov, Anatoly Muravev, IRAM representatives, Gdaly Rivin, Evgeny Vasilev, Pertti Nurmi?
WG2: NWP, ensembles and assimilation (including Verification)
WG Leader: Michail Tsyrulnikov / , Andrea Montani
Members: Stephane Belair, Andrea Montani, Detlev Majewski, Gdaly Rivin, Yong Wang, Roy Rasmussen, TizianaPaccagnella, Donghi Wang, Anatoly Muravev, Michail Tolstykh, Inna Rozinkina, Pertti Nurmi?
WG3: IT including graphical tools, formats, archiving and telecommunication
WG Leader: Dmitry Kiktev
Members: Alex Kolker, Vladimir Krupchatnikov, Sergei Loubov, Gennady Novikov, Alexander Smirnov
WG4: Products, training, end user assessment and social impacts
WG Leader: Valery Lukyanov / Evgeny Vasilev
Members: Vladimir Oganesian, George Isaac, Anatoly Muravev, Dmitry Moiseev, Pertti Nurmi, Galina Zaimskikh, Inna Rozinkina, Pertti Nurmi.
FDP (Forecast Demonstration Project) ensemble activities
SOCHMEL7: limited-area ensemble system based on COSMO
(“relocation” of COSMO-LEPS)
Horizontal resoluzion: 7 km.
Vertical resolution: 40 model levels.
Forecast range: 72 hours.
Starting time: 00UTC, 12UTC.
Ensemble size: 10 members.
Boundary conditions: selected ECMWF EPS members.
Initial conditions: interpolated from ECMWF EPS members.
Link with WWRP MWFR WG
Activities in Europe
SRNWP-EurEPS-2013-2017 Cooperation on European Limited-area Ensemble Prediction Systems
In the Roadmap for the Forecasting Capability Area of EUMETNET the creation of a Eur-EPS Programme is envisaged
A major cooperative effort is required to develop a capability for convection-permitting ensembles in order to address prediction of severe or high-impact weather in a probabilistic framework
EurEPS
Phase I is proposed to be carried out in 2013, in order to identify properly all the needed technical facility, the requirements for Research and Development to design properly this innovative kind of systems and the potential framework for running the Phase II as a demonstration project
Phase II would be executed over a 4-year time frame (2014–2017) as a demonstration project
SRNWP LAM-EPS meeting, Bologna, 22-23 February 2011 Some Outcomes
The EUMETNET Forecasting Roadmap has been presented by A. Horanyi: Short-Range EPS is one of the 4 priority areas for cooperation which have been identified
Requirements to ECMWF in terms of EPS boundary conditions to drive LAM-EPSs have been discussed.
SRNWP LAM-EPS meeting, Bologna, 22-23 February 2011 Some Outcomes from the minutes
It was decided to make an inventory of the status and plans of LAM-EPS activities within SRNWP, based on the review provided by this meeting, highlighting the scientific issues.
This inventory would provide the basis to write a common paper, to be submitted to BAMS, where the status of the European contribution to TIGGE-LAM will be presented. Tiziana will contact the editor.
EPS DA meeting > Bologna
HIPRECA: HIgh resolution PREcipitation Analyses for verification as a complement to TIGGE and TIGGE LAM products.
The possibility to implement an European archive of high resolution precipitation analyses based on high density network data is being explored. Contacts are established with ECMWF and with other European groups and initiatives with the same objectives.
HIPRECA: HIgh resolution PREcipitation Analyses for verification as a complement to TIGGE and TIGGE LAM products.
Criticity > lack of resources
Cooperation with other similar initiatives in Europe.
A meeting has been organized by Anna Ghelli at ECMWF on the 2nd Dec 2010. This meeting was aimed to coordinate this activity with the EUMETGRID/EUMETNET project leaded by Ole Tveito from Met.No. Participants: Anna Ghelli (ECMWF), Ole Tveito (Met.No), Dan Hollis (MetOffice), Tiziana Paccagnella (ARPA-SIMC TIGGE LAM). This initiative should also link with other ongoing projects like EURO4M and ARCIS (Northern Italy initiative)
Possibility to set-up a coordinated activity (to be hopefully funded by submitting a project proposal to EU)
Ongoing contacts with Ole Tveito.
This issue will be raised next week at the MWFR WG meeting in Berlin.
SRNWP Interoperability Programme Coordinator: Rachel North – Met Office
SRNWP Interoperability Programme Coordinator: Rachel North – Met Office
Continuation of the SRNWP Programme under discussion
Possible deliverables:
Maintenance Plan for the Adaptors
Extension of the existent SW tools to provide Lateral Boundary Conditions from Global and LAM to LAM
Soil aspects and Interoperability of Surface fields
The ET EPS and TIGGE LAM have been requested by Rachel North to express their opinions about the different possible options for phase two
Next steps (during Autumn):
Final agreement among the Programme Partners about the content of the continuation proposal
Submission of the proposal to STAC/PFAC and the the EUMETNET Assembly
Now includes 54 model outputs, that combine GCMs, with regional models (mainy ETA-BRAMS, and WRF).
Now includes 54 model outputs, that combine GCMs, with regional models (mainy ETA-BRAMS, and WRF).
Some models contribute with different members of their ensemble (CPTEC models, for example)
Products are available at station points (not maps!)
The web page is interactive, and the user can select any model, and any synoptic station and plot surface variables forecasts
Surface temperature according to some models.
Surface temperature according to some models.
Blue dots are the observations and red curve is the Super Ensemble Mean (bias corrected!)
TIGGE LAM @ ….
DRIHMS (Distributed Research Infrastructure for Hydro-Meteorology Study) -First open consultation meeting. Genova 14 Oct. 2010. “Limited Area Ensemble Forecasting and TIGGE-LAM” Tiziana Paccagnella
EGU 2010 Meeting, Vien. TIGGE, TIGGE LAM and the GIFS T. Paccagnella D. Richardson D. Schuster R. Swinbank Z. Toth S. Worley
4th HYMEX workshop, Bologna, 8-10 June 2010. “HyMeX and TIGGE-LAM”. Laurent Descamps, Andrea Montani, Tiziana Paccagnella
QPE QPF Meeting, 2010 Nanjing. Ongoing developments on LIMITED AREA ENSEMBLE FORECASTING and TIGGE LAM Tiziana Paccagnella
SOCHI Kick Off Meeting, 2011 Sochi. TIGGE LAM & SOCHI 2014T. Paccagnella R. Swinbank Z. Toth
WWRP JSC Meeting 2011 Geneva
EPS DA SRNWP meeting – 2011 Bologna
LAM EPS meeting – 2011 Bologna
Contribution to the definition of the GEO-WOW FP7 proposal
Contribution to THORPEX mid-term report
ERM – Sarah Jones
TIGGE – R. Swinbank and Zoltan Toth
Thank you!
Thank you!
SUPPORTING AND COMPLEMENTARY SLIDES
SRNWP-EurEPS-2013-2017 Cooperation on European Limited-area Ensemble Prediction Systems
EurEPS - A proposal by the SRNWP Expert Team on Predictability and EPS
The new EurEPS proposal To be presented at the EUMETNET Assembly on November 22nd
In the Roadmap for the Forecasting Capability Area of EUMETNET the creation of a Eur-EPS Programme is envisaged
A major cooperative effort is required to develop a capability for convection-permitting ensembles in order to address prediction of severe or high-impact weather in a probabilistic framework
EurEPS - Phase I is proposed to be carried out in 2013, in order to identify properly all the needed technical facility, the requirements for Research and Development to design properly this innovative kind of systems and the potential framework for running the Phase II as a demonstration project
Phase I
Phase I will:
build whenever possible on existing know-how and expertise, available within the various European NWP Consortia;
plan the use of results from SRNWP-I and SRNWP-V project for verification and interoperability of EPS;
schedule scientific and technical experiments for later to design a convection-permitting ensemble system;
consider the most suitable initial state, its ensemble spread, the models errors and lower-boundary uncertainties, the available nesting techniques;
meet the requirements of all the involved partners, to provide a suitable system, applicable by the different Meteorological Centres, which will permit to significantly improve the forecasts of high impact weather
Analyze and evaluate:
state-of-the-art of LAM-EPS scientific methodologies for very high-resolution ensemble, including technical constraints;
available and future computer resources scenarios;
consider the necessary products for key end-users
deliver the EurEPS Phase II project proposal for the EUMETNET Advisory Committees
Phase II
Phase II would be executed over a 4-year time frame (2014–2017) as a demonstration project that, outside of a fully operational context, would hopefully show the usefulness of its results towards fundamental case studies and the likely implementability of a full EurEPS project with a distributed load of responsibility among Members when adequate computing resources might be allocated.
