Appendix d progress towards Australia’s emissions reduction goals

Figure D.36: LULUCF share of Australia’s emissions, selected years, 1990–2030

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Figure D.36: LULUCF share of Australia’s emissions, selected years, 1990–2030

figure d.36 shows the historical and projected share of australia’s land use, land use change and forestry sector (lulucf) emissions between 1990 and 2030. in 2012, lulucf emissions accounted for 71 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent. lulucf emissions were 140 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 1990, 71 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2000 and 21 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2012. emissions are projected to continue to decrease under all scenarios in 2020 and 2030, except the no price scenario where emissions are projected to increase to 34 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2030. emissions are projected to decrease to 19 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent under both the low and medium scenarios, further decreasing to 11 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in the high scenario in 2030.

Source: Climate Change Authority calculations using results from Treasury and DIICCSRTE 2013

The Treasury and DIICCSRTE modelling projects that net LULUCF emissions could decrease to 13 Mt CO₂-e in 2020 and 11 Mt CO₂-e in 2030 in the high scenario, or otherwise increase to 30 Mt CO₂-e in 2020 and 34 Mt CO₂-e in 2030 in the no price scenario (Figure D.36).

Figure D.37: Deforestation and other land use change emissions and sequestration, 1990–2030

figure d.37 shows the historical and projected emissions of deforestation and other land-use change sequestration. deforestation emissions have fallen from around 140 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 1990 to around 47 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2012. deforestation emissions are projected to remain relatively stable between now and 2030. in 2030 deforestation emissions are projected to range between 42 and 52 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent. other land use change sequestration increased from zero in 1990 to 25 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2012. other land use change sequestration is projected to range between 18 and 31 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2030.

Note: Negative emissions reflect carbon sequestration. Upper and lower line bounds illustrate the range of modelled outcomes.

Source: Climate Change Authority calculations using results from Treasury and DIICCSRTE 2013

D9.2 LULUCF emissions outcomes, contributors and drivers

Figure D.38 shows actual LULUCF emissions and removals by subsector from 1990 to 2030. The vast majority of LULUCF emissions and removals, both current and projected, are from forestry activities (deforestation, reforestation and afforestation, and forest management). Non-forestry activities (cropland and grazing land management and revegetation) are much smaller sources of emissions and removals.

Figure D.38: Contributors to LULUCF emissions, selected years, 1990–2030, and to change in emissions relative to 2000 levels

figure d.38 shows the historical and projected emissions and contributors to australia’s land-use, land use change and forestry sector between 1990 and 2030. in 1990 land-use, land use change and forestry emissions were 140 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent and fell to 21 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2012. by 2030, net land-use, land use change and forestry emissions are projected to be decrease to 19 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent under both the low and medium scenarios, and 11 megatonnes under the high scenario. emissions are projected to increase to 34 megatonnes under the no price scenario in 2030. relative to 2000 level emissions, decreases (less sequestration) in afforestation and reforestation emissions will be more than offset by increase in forest management, other land use change activities and reduced deforestation (increase in sequestration) in 2030. combined, net change in emissions from these activities are projected to contribute between 38 and 60 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent emission reductions under all scenarios, including no price, compared to 2000.

Source: Climate Change Authority calculations using results from Treasury and DIICCSRTE 2013

D9.2.1 Outcomes

The Treasury and DIICCSRTE modelling projects net LULUCF emissions may decrease by 2 Mt CO₂-e to 19 Mt CO₂-e from 2012 to 2030 under both the low and medium scenario, and decrease to 11 Mt CO₂-e under the high scenario. Under the no price scenario, emissions are projected to increase to 34 Mt CO₂-e in 2030.

Over the period from 2013 to 2020, the Treasury and DIICCSRTE modelling projects cumulative LULUCF emissions reductions associated with the Kyoto Protocol accounting changes and additional land management acitivities of 90 Mt CO₂-e irrespective of price incentives. Cumulative emissions reductions are projected to rise to 126 Mt CO₂-e in the medium scenario. Similarly, the ANU Centre for Climate Law and Policy estimates potential LULUCF emissions reductions of 110–115 Mt CO₂-e from forest management, crop land management, grazing land management and revegetation activities from 2013 to 2020 (Issues Paper submission, pp. 12–14).

Since 1990, deforestation emissions have declined, reflecting economic factors and also the strengthening of state and territory restrictions on land clearing regulations over the period. Between 1990 and 2011, emissions fell by over 100 Mt CO₂-e to 38 Mt CO₂-e, before increasing to 47 Mt CO₂-e in 2012. The Treasury and DIICCSRTE modelling projects deforestation emissions will increase to 50 Mt CO₂-e in 2013, remain steady to 2020, and gradually decline to 46 Mt CO₂-e in 2030 under both the low and medium scenarios. Under the no price scenario, emissions are projected to increase to 52 Mt CO₂-e in 2030, peaking at 54 Mt CO₂-e in 2016. Recent relaxation of land clearing restrictions in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia may contribute to increasing emissions.

According to the Treasury and DIICCSRTE modelling, sequestration from reforestation and afforestation increased from 11 Mt CO₂-e in 2000 to 25 Mt CO₂-e in 2012. This was in part driven by economic conditions and forest Managed Investment Schemes, which allowed investors to deduct 100 per cent of their investment against taxable income earned elsewhere. Regulations governing these schemes were tightened in 2007 and have contributed to a reduction in tree plantation investments. ClimateWorks (2013, p. 21) reported the area of plantation forests cleared in 2012 exceeded new plantings, resulting in a reduction in the total plantation estate for the year.

The Treasury and DIICCSRTE modelling projects afforestation and reforestation sequestration will decrease to below 10 Mt CO₂-e in 2020 and 2030 under all scenarios. Many of the plantations established in the early 2000s were short-term pulpwood and are nearing readiness for harvest. Due to policy uncertainty and long investment returns from tree plantations, ClimateWorks (2013, p. 31) projects a significant proportion of harvested forest land will not be returned for reforestation over the next 5 to 10 years and will instead be converted to other land use.

D9.2.2 Contributors and drivers

The main contributors to emissions and sequestration in the LULUCF sector are clearing land, planting land or forestry management (Figure D.39).

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