Comparison of key macroeconomic and budgetary projections
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Real GDP
(% change)
SP Apr 2009
10.4
6.4
2.4
3.6
4.5
COM Spring 2009
10.4
6.4
-2.6
0.7
n.a.
CP Nov 2007
8.8
6.8
5.8
5.0
n.a.
HICP inflation
(%)
SP Apr 2009
1.9
3.9
2.2
3.6
4.1
COM Spring 2009
1.9
3.9
2.0
2.4
n.a.
CP Nov 2007
1.7
2.3
2.6
2.7
n.a.
Output gap2 (% of potential GDP)
SP Apr 2009
5.1
6.5
3.5
1.7
1.0
COM Spring 20092
6.5
8.0
0.9
-2.2
n.a.
CP Nov 2007
1.8
2.3
2.1
1.4
n.a.
Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world
(% of GDP)
SP Apr 2009
-4.6
-5.8
-4.2
-2.9
-2.6
COM Spring 2009
-4.7
-5.6
-7.6
-6.2
n.a.
CP Nov 2007
-3.4
-1.9
-1.1
-0.4
n.a.
General government revenue
(% of GDP)
SP Apr 2009
32.7
33.4
32.1
31.6
31.8
COM Spring 2009
32.5
32.7
33.6
34.1
n.a.
CP Nov 2007
33.2
33.0
31.8
31.8
n.a.
General government expenditure
(% of GDP)
SP Apr 2009
34.6
35.6
35.1
34.5
34.1
COM Spring 2009
34.4
34.9
38.3
39.4
n.a.
CP Nov 2007
35.7
35.3
33.7
32.6
n.a.
General government balance
(% of GDP)
SP Apr 2009
-1.9
-2.2
-3.0
-2.9
-2.2
COM Spring 2009
-1.9
-2.2
-4.7
-5.4
n.a.
CP Nov 2007
-2.5
-2.3
-1.8
-0.8
n.a.
Primary balance
(% of GDP)
SP Apr 2009
-0.6
-0.9
-1.7
-1.7
-1.0
COM Spring 2009
-0.5
-0.9
-3.3
-4.0
n.a.
CP Nov 2007
-1.0
-0.9
-0.3
0.5
n.a.
Cyclically-adjusted balance3 (% of GDP)
SP Apr 2009
-3.4
-4.1
-4.0
-3.4
-2.5
COM Spring 2009
-3.8
-4.5
-4.9
-4.7
n.a.
CP Nov 2007
-3.0
-3.0
-2.4
-1.2
n.a.
Structural balance4
(% of GDP)
SP Apr 2009
-4.2
-3.8
-4.4
-3.5
-2.6
COM Spring 2009
-3.8
-4.7
-5.0
-4.7
n.a.
CP Nov 2007
-3.0
-3.1
-2.4
-1.2
n.a.
Government gross debt
(% of GDP)
SP Apr 2009
29.4
27.6
31.4
32.7
32.7
COM Spring 2009
29.4
27.6
32.2
36.3
n.a.
CP Nov 2007
30.6
30.8
30.5
29.5
n.a.
Notes:
1The 2007 data on real GDP, HICP inflation were provided on a bilateral basis.
2Output gaps and cyclically-adjusted balances according to the programmes as recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the information in the programmes.
3Based on estimated potential growth of 5.6%, 4.9%, 4.4% and 3.9% respectively in the period 2007-2010.
4Cyclically-adjusted balance excluding one-off and other temporary measures. One-off and other temporary measures are 0.8% of GDP in 2007, 0.4% of GDP in 2009, 0.1 of GDP in 2009 and 2010 - deficit-increasing and 0.3% of GDP in 2008 deficit-reducing according to the most recent programme and 0.2% of GDP in 2008 and 0.1% of GDP in 2009 and 2011 deficit-increasing in the Commission services' forecast.
Source:
Stability programme (SP); Commission services’ April 2009 spring forecasts (COM); Commission services’ calculations
1 În conformitate cu Regulamentul (CE) nr. 1466/97 al Consiliului privind consolidarea supravegherii pozițiilor bugetare și supravegherea și coordonarea politicilor economice, statele membre trebuie să prezinte anual proiecții macroeconomice și bugetare actualizate. Aceste actualizări se numesc programe de stabilitate, în cazul statelor care au adoptat moneda unică, și programe de convergență, în cazul acelor state care nu au adoptat-o încă. Regulamentul mai este denumit și „componenta preventivă” a Pactului de stabilitate și creștere.
2 For more recent developments see: http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/thematic_articles/article15382_en.htm.
