Contributions

CoA 1.1 Foresight, climate change analysis and priority setting

The substance of priority setting in Phase I was evaluated with an objective of drawing out implications for Phase II using product lines as the organizing construct for delineating the research portfolio, each involving one or more easily identifiable prospective technologies¹²⁰. CoA 1.1 will continue and enhance the pre-proposal ex-ante impact and foresight analyses for targeting and prioritization¹²¹ during the first year of GLDC. Standard ex-ante economic impact evaluation of research using the economic surplus model¹²² will be complemented by ex-ante impact analysis of alternative GLDC technologies in collaboration with CRP-PIM using the IMPACT system of integrated models and building on the methods and experiences of the GFSF work consisting of bio-economic modelling tools linking site-specific or geo-spatial crop modelling with economic modelling¹²³. The work applies ex-ante impact assessment methods to a range of research and technology and management options and uses technical and market-related information including expert estimates obtained through wider expert and stakeholder consultations. Research and technology options identified in other FPs, e.g. farm management options (FP3) and available and new technologies (FPs4-5), to address particular constraints will be evaluated based on their potential rates of return as well as economic, environmental (e.g. biodiversity, soil and water conservation, etc.) and poverty reduction impacts using ex-ante impact and quantitative foresight methods. Value chain interventions (FP2) will be evaluated based on their potential impacts on the efficiency of GLDC value chains (e.g. changes in value capture by producers) and associated impacts on household incomes and poverty. Priority setting will also be informed by food supply, demand and prices projections under climate change and other socio-economic drivers of change such as technology, population growth, urbanization and changes in diets (strong links to PIM).

Overall, CoA 1.1 will provide the evidence base for priority setting and targeting alongside CoAs 1.2-1.4 and will serve as a platform for FP1 to provide a coordinated feedback to GLDC to guide priority setting. FP1 envisions that such a transparent and consultative process of priority assessment will ensure commitment of the national and regional stakeholders to the program.