Contributions

Environmental characterization and scenario analysis: Major mechanistic crop models will be used to prescribe the set of target locations and future production environments (TPEs) where varieties and hybrids developed by FP4 and NARES will be grown. Prediction of genotype performance in a TPE informs selection by predicting future performance, averaged over several farms and seasons. The use of TPE is critical in rainfed and low resource-use agriculture, where seasonal weather variations, soil quality and depth, and management differences abound, causing GxExM interactions that hamper simultaneous genetic and agronomic progress toward improved system productivity and resilience. Yet phenotypic variation in target environments, genetic correlation and trait heritability in test and target environments determine selection efficiency and the size of realized genetic gain. This element is critical for modernizing GLDC breeding. Thus initially, due to the complexity and scale of GxExM work required for 9 crops, in diverse agroecologies and farming systems, CoA 4.1 will focus on groundnut because it is grown in West Africa, Eastern Africa, Southern Africa and South Asia to build a scalable system for other prioritized crops. The mechanistic crop models (Simple Simulation Model- SSM, APSIM, or SAMARA) will be used to (i) characterize TPEs for GLDC crops or crop groups and (ii) within each TPE, identify the genetics, agronomic practices, or their combinations that improve system productivity and resilience. This activity will also integrate modelling tools in decision-making by geneticists/breeders (FP4/FP5) and agronomists (FP3) in their work. For instance, end-user demand attributes for grain or crop residue of sorghum could be designed for particular TPE in South India, leading to higher return on investment than with a generic plant type²⁴⁹. And it will also support integration of modelling outputs by social scientists and economists for forecast modelling (e.g. global futures) or policy interventions. Environmental characterization will initially start in West Africa where two strategic partnerships exist, namely, IAVAO²⁵⁰, an initiative of CIRAD in which ICRISAT, IRD and CERAAS partner with national programs in WCA, and LAPSE²⁵¹, an IRD laboratory in Senegal that collaborates with CERAAS and ISRA, aligned to regional initiatives of ECOWAS and WAAPP²⁵² .