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doi:10.1038/nrneurol.2015.81

Risk prediction models in dementia prevention

Alina Solomon and Hilkka Soininen

In the version of this supplementary file originally posted online, frailty variables for the FI-NTRF study were incorrect. The error has been corrected in this file as of 30th June 2015.


Supplementary Table 1. Brief summary of characteristics and predictive performance for available dementia risk scores


Risk score

Population

Mean age (years)

Follow-up (years)

Factors

AUC or

C statistic

Midlife CAIDE Dementia Risk Score
















Lancet Neurol 2006;5:735–411

Finnish

50

20

Age, sex, education, SBP, BMI, total cholesterol, physical activity

0.77

Age, sex, education, SBP, BMI, total cholesterol, physical activity, APOE ε4

0.78

Alzheimers Dement 2014;10:562–5702

USA

46

36

Age, sex, education, SBP, BMI, total cholesterol

0.75

PLoS One 2014;9(1):e861413

USA

80

3.5

Age, sex, education, SBP, BMI, total cholesterol, physical activity

0.49

Swedish

81

6

Age, sex, education, SBP, BMI, physical activity

0.54

USA

72

6

Age, sex, education, SBP, BMI, total cholesterol, physical activity

0.57

Late-life Dementia Risk Index

Neurology 2009;73:173–1794



USA

76

6

Age, cognition (3MS, DSST), BMI, APOE ε4, MRI findings (WML, enlarged ventricles), internal carotid artery thickness, coronary bypass surgery, time to put on and button shirt, alcohol

0.81

Brief Late-life Dementia Risk Index

Alzheimers Dement 2010;6:138–1415



USA

76

6

Age, cognition (MMSE recall, 3-step command, figure copying; verbal fluency – animal naming), self-reported ‘trouble keeping mind on things’(CES-D scale item), stroke, peripheral artery disease, coronary artery bypass surgery, BMI, alcohol

0.77

Australian National University AD Risk Index (ANU-ADRI)

PLoS One 2014;9(1):e861413



USA

80

3.5

Age, sex, education, diabetes, TBI, cognitive activities, social network, smoking, alcohol, physical activity

0.72

Swedish

81

6

Age, sex, education, diabetes, TBI, social network, smoking, alcohol

0.65

USA

72

6

Age, sex, education, diabetes, smoking, alcohol, physical activity, fish intake, depression symptoms

0.73

Dementia risk score in type 2 diabetes

Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol 2013;1:183–906



USA

71

10

Age, education, microvascular disease, diabetic foot, cerebrovascular disease, cardiovascular disease, acute metabolic event, depression

0.74

Vascular risk factor index

Eur J Neurol 2006;13(5):514-27



Swedish

70

10

Dizziness when suddenly standing up, calf pain while walking, chest pain, abnormal heart sound, aortic calcification, pulmonary congestion, EKG findings, diabetes, hypertension, angina, BMI, cholesterol

0.74

Swedish

70

20

Sex, calf pain while walking, chest pain, aortic calcification, pulmonary congestion, EKG findings, BMI, cholesterol

0.67

Brief dementia indicator for primary care

Alzheimers Dement 2014;10:656–6658



USA

73

6

Age, education, BMI, diabetes, stroke, needs help handling money/medication, depressive symptoms

0.68

USA

72

6

0.77

USA

71

6

0.76

USA

71

6

0.78

FI-NTRF

(Frailty index – nontraditional risk factors)

Neurology 2011;77:227–2349



Canadian

65+

5

19 frailty variables (self-rated health, problems with eyesight, hearing, denture fit, stomach, kidneys, respiratory function, skin, bladder & bowel control, orthopaedic problems, and others)

0.64

10

0.66

Published dementia risk scores were selected according to the following criteria: longitudinal studies with dementia as outcome, risk models including multiple health-related variables, and reporting AUC or C statistic. Studies focusing on risk estimation in patients with MCI, or on cognitive tests, neuroimaging or cerebrospinal fluid measurements without health-related variables, were not included here. Abbreviations: 3MS, Modified MMSE; AUC, area under the curve; APOE, apolipoprotein E gene; CAIDE, Cardiovascular Risk Factors, Aging and Dementia study; CES-D, Center for Epidemiologic Studies-Depression Scale; DSST, Digit Symbol Substitution; EKG, electrocardiogram; MMSE, Mini-Mental State Examination; SBP, systolic blood pressure; TBI, traumatic brain injury; WML, white matter lesions.
References

1. Kivipelto M, Ngandu T, Laatikainen T, Winblad B, Soininen H, Tuomilehto J. Risk score for the prediction of dementia risk in 20 years among middle aged people: a longitudinal, population-based study. Lancet Neurol. 2006;5(9):735-41

2. Exalto LG, Quesenberry CP, Barnes D, Kivipelto M, Biessels GJ, Whitmer RA. Midlife risk score for the prediction of dementia four decades later. Alzheimers

Dement. 2014;10(5):562-70

3. Anstey KJ, Cherbuin N, Herath PM, Qiu C, Kuller LH, Lopez OL, Wilson RS, Fratiglioni L. A self-report risk index to predict occurrence of dementia in three independent cohorts of older adults: the ANU-ADRI. PLoS One. 2014 Jan 23;9(1):e86141

4. Barnes DE, Covinsky KE, Whitmer RA, Kuller LH, Lopez OL, Yaffe K. Predicting risk of dementia in older adults: The late-life dementia risk index. Neurology 2009;73(3):173-9

5. Barnes DE, Covinsky KE, Whitmer RA, Kuller LH, Lopez OL, Yaffe K. Commentary on "Developing a national strategy to prevent dementia: Leon Thal Symposium

2009." Dementia risk indices: A framework for identifying individuals with a high dementia risk. Alzheimers Dement. 2010;6(2):138-41

6. Anstey KJ, Cherbuin N, Herath PM, Qiu C, Kuller LH, Lopez OL, Wilson RS, Fratiglioni L. A self-report risk index to predict occurrence of dementia in three independent cohorts of older adults: the ANU-ADRI. PLoS One. 2014 Jan 23;9(1):e86141

7. Exalto LG, Biessels GJ, Karter AJ, Huang ES, Katon WJ, Minkoff JR, Whitmer RA. Risk score for prediction of 10 year dementia risk in individuals with type 2

diabetes: a cohort study. Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol. 2013;1(3):183-90

8. Mitnitski A, Skoog I, Song X, Waern M, Ostling S, Sundh V, Steen B, Rockwood K. A vascular risk factor index in relation to mortality and incident dementia.

Eur J Neurol. 2006;13(5):514-21

9. Barnes DE, Beiser AS, Lee A, Langa KM, Koyama A, Preis SR, Neuhaus J, McCammon RJ, Yaffe K, Seshadri S, Haan MN, Weir DR. Development and validation of a brief dementia screening indicator for primary care. Alzheimers Dement. 2014;10(6):656-665



10. Song X, Mitnitski A, Rockwood K. Nontraditional risk factors combine to predict Alzheimer disease and dementia. Neurology. 2011;77(3):227-34

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