Currency equivalents

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1 Programme Complémentaire de Soutien à la Croissance.

2 Programme de Soutien à la Relance Economique.

3 Important progress occurred at the closing of the PER. On the one hand, in the 2007 draft Budget Law Authorities announced the implicit price of the oil barrel (US$49) needed to obtain enough hydrocarbon revenues to fill the non-hydrocarbon fiscal deficit. On the other hand, in the 2006 Complementary Budget Law, the rules of the FRR were amended to allow direct financing of the nonhydrocarbon fiscal deficit by the FRR.

4 Road transport is an exception where private operators have a significant market share — 93 percent of capacity in interurban passenger services, 97 percent of capacity in freight transport and 97 percent in urban transport in Algiers in 2004.

5 The precise total of the PCSC investment program has been a bit murky. This is due to the continuous change in the mix of (a) the PCSC original resources (DA 4,203 billion) with (b) its supplementary funds approved (DA1,191 billion); (c) the complementary resources transferred as dotations to special treasury accounts (DA 1,140 billion); (d) the remaining resources of the previous investment program (DA 1,071 billion); (e) the program for the development of the Southern region (DA 432 billion); and (f) the special program for the development of the Hauts Plateaux region (DA 668 billion). In all, the late June 2006 estimate of the total cost of the PCSC is about DA 8,705 billion (approximately US$114 billion). For consistency, this PER has based most of its analysis on the original figures provided to the Bank mission by Algerian officials in October, 2005 (Table A.3.10), and several updates provided until June 2006.

6 In 2000, real per capita GDP was equivalent to the rate in 1980.

7 The latest figure needs to be carefully scrutinized because it is based on a household survey conducted once a year in September, beginning in 2004. Since 2004, the number of people working at home and with temporary jobs has sharply increased.

8 The term “program” used in the PCSC document is not equivalent to the concept of “program” employed by the standard functional budget classification. For a more detailed discussion, see Chapter 4.

9 According to data from the Ministry of Finance, cost revaluations were 21 percent in 2000; 16 percent in 2001; 12 percent in 2002 and 2003; and 19 percent in 2004.

10 Some delays (implying cost revaluations) may well be necessary and unavoidable; but they far exceed a “reasonable” range in many cases.

11 The ratios presented here are executed/authorized budget outlays. Instead, the executed/approved (credits de paiements) ratios are higher. The conversion between both ratios is straightforward (see Chapter 3, para 3.20). Data for 2005 payment credits are taken from Table A.3.11.

12 Authorities reportedly completed the authorization of the last 25 percent share in the 2006 Finance Complementary Budget Law and the resources addressing the two regions in the 2007 Budget Law. Therefore, budget authorizations can not be deferred anymore.

13 The oil reference price has remained at US$19 per barrel, and is expected to remain at this level over the next 5-year period (2005–09), rendering the financing of a fiscal deficit highly unlikely in a current era of record oil prices. In comparison, the current OPEC reference band is US$22–28 per barrel.

14 IMF Country Reports 2004 (No.05/50) and 2005 (No.06/93) can be found in http://www.imf.org/external/country/DZA/index.htm.

15 Official unemployment figures suffer from measurement problems however, including variable sampling and methods, changing questionnaire contents, as well as nonperiodic and discontinuous surveys.

16 The Algerian think-tank, CNES (National Economic and Social Council), estimated in 2003 that informal jobs represent 17 percent of total employment, and up to 22 percent if the agriculture sector is excluded.

17 The most recent official poverty rate was reported at 12 percent in 2000, slightly down from 14 percent in 1995. But an unofficial estimate issued by the United Nations Country Program reports the poverty rate at 6.8 percent in 2004.

18 Per-capita growth is a more conventional measure used in empirical analysis assessing the effects of fiscal policy on growth, as this controls for bias introduced by population growth rates.

19 Correlation coefficients are formally tested using the Spearman rank correlation formula to avoid the effect of outliers. The Spearman rank correlation coefficient can be used to give an R-estimate, and is a measure of monotone association that is used when the distribution of the data make Pearson's correlation coefficient undesirable or misleading. The Spearman rank correlation coefficient is defined as:

where d is the difference in statistical rank of corresponding variables, and is an approximation to the exact correlation:

coefficient computed from the original data. Because it uses ranks, the Spearman rank correlation coefficient is much easier to compute. (Source: Weisstein, Eric W. 2002. "Spearman Rank Correlation Coefficient." From MathWorld - a Wolfram Web Resource: http://mathworld.wolfram.com/SpearmanRankCorrelationCoefficient.html.).

20 The execution rate of the PCSC (over budget allocations initially approved) is assumed to be 85 percent in 2006 and 2007, 90 percent in 2008 and 95 percent in 2009. In addition, the main components of current expenditures were projected as follows: wages and salaries: 2006 level = 2005 level + wage drift (2%) + wage increase (10%); goods and services: 2006 level = 2005 level*increase in wages and salaries + broadly estimated impact of PCSC on goods and services; transfers: 2006 level = 2005 level (1+2006 inflation) + broadly estimated impact of PCSC on other transfers.

21 The Algerian investment budget (budget d'équipement) includes two main components: (i) the investment component (investissement) and the capital operations component (operations en capital). The capital operations component includes both nongovernment capital expenditures, such as capital transfers to public enterprises, and government capital expenditures such as the special reconstruction program. To avoid confusion with the entire investment budget, its “investment component” will be referred to in this chapter as the “investment project component.”

22 These figures slightly overstate actual capital spending because the “investment budget” includes certain expenditures for maintenance and for financing the initial years of project operation, as well as some current subsidies and financial transactions included in the “capital operations” component of the investment budget.

23 Rough estimates from staff of the Ministry of Finance. For the “investment project component” of the investment budget, a comparison of totals of commitment appropriations and expenditures over 1998–2004 confirms this estimate (the unspent commitment appropriations exceeding 1,000 billion dinars).

24