Department of accounting


Actuarial Science Section & Centre for Actuarial Research



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Actuarial Science Section & Centre for Actuarial Research

Research Report 2006




Head of Section: Dr S. Kendal

Director of the Centre for Actuarial Research: Professor R.E. Dorrington
School Profile
The section produces about 20% of all South African actuaries. Approximately 60% of our graduates go on to complete the professional examinations to qualify as actuaries, which is one of the highest qualification rates of any university in South Africa. In 2001 we became the second university in the world to have postgraduate courses recognised for exemption from the professional examinations, and currently have more courses recognised for exemption purposes than any other university.
The Centre for Actuarial Research was established in 2001. It brings together multi-disciplinary teams to build capacity, improve techniques and produce independent research in the following areas:

  • Demography

  • Healthcare Financing

  • Social Security

  • HIV/AIDS Modelling

The Centre actively promotes the collaboration of people with research interests in demography, actuarial science, social security, economics, finance and public sector policy. In addition, the Centre has been home to the programme in demography with both masters and PhD students. The Centre for Actuarial Research at the University of Cape Town is the only unit of its kind at an African university.



School Statistics
Permanent and long-term contract staff


Professors

1

Associate Professors

1

Senior Lecturers

3

Lecturers

2

Researchers

1.4

Administrative and Clerical Staff

1

Total

9.4


Students


PhD

3

Masters

10

Honours

65

Post-graduate diplomas

10

Undergraduate

300

Total

388


Research Fields and Staff
Professor R.E. Dorrington
Demography; mortality; fertility; HIV/AIDS modelling; population estimation and projection
Dr S. Kendal
The impact of HIV/AIDS on retirement funds and employee benefits; measuring and managing retirement product risk; taxation of retirement funds
Associate Professor I.L. MacDonald
Applied probability; new time series models; mathematical finance
Dr T.A. Moultrie
Fertility; statistical analysis of census and survey data; modelling of birth intervals; contraception use and adoption; HIV/AIDS
Ms S. Ramjee

Health care product design and financing; medical price indices


Mr M. Ncube

Living annuities, dynamic financial analysis of insurance companies


Mr L. Johnson
HIV/AIDS modelling; epidemiology of STDs
Ms D. Budlender

Gender budgeting; costing social security benefits; labour/employment; poverty



Contact Details
Actuarial Science
Postal Address: Actuarial Science, University of Cape Town, Private Bag X3,

Rondebosch, 7701

Telephone: +27 21 650 2475

Fax: +27 21 689 7580

E-mail: Shieyaam.Jacobs@uct.ac.za

Web: http://www.commerce.uct.ac.za/actuarialscience/



Centre for Actuarial Research
Postal Address: Actuarial Science, University of Cape Town, Private Bag X3,

Rondebosch, 7701

Telephone: +27 21 650 2475

Fax: +27 21 689 7580

E-mail: care@commerce@uct.ac.za

Web: http://www.commerce.uct.ac.za/Demography/ and http://www.commerce.uct.ac.za/care/


Research Output
Articles in peer-reviewed journals
Johnson, L.F. and Dorrington, R.E. 2006. Modelling the demographic impact of HIV/AIDS in South Africa and the likely impact of interventions. Demographic Research, 14(22): 541-574.
Moultrie, T. 2006. The Demography of South Africa [Review]. Population Studies, 60(2): 233-242.

Published Conference Abstracts
Hallett, T.B., Aberle-Grasse, J., Dorrington, R.E., Bello, G. and Boulos, L.M. 2006. Declines in HIV prevelance can be associated with changing sexual behavious in Uganda, urban Kenya, Zimbabwe, and urban Haiti. 82: i1-i8.

EXTENSION AND DEVELOPMENT WORK
Dorrington, R.E. Johnson, L., Bradshaw, D. and Daniel, T.-J. 2006. The Demographic Impact of HIV/AIDS in South Africa. National and Provisional Indicators for 2006. Published jointly by the Centre for Actuarial Research, UCT, the Medical Research Council, and the Actuarial Society of South Africa, Cape Town. ISBN 0-7992 2322-0.

Department of Statistical Sciences
Please refer to the Faculty of Science report




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