Draft Import Risk Analysis Report for Fresh Apple Fruit from the People’s Republic of China

Consequences

The consequences of the establishment of B. dorsalis in Australia have been estimated previously for longan and lychees from China and Thailand (DAFF 2004a) and mangoes from Taiwan (Biosecurity Australia 2006c). This estimate of impact scores is provided below expressed in the current scoring system (Table 2.3).

Plant life or health E

Any other aspects of the environment C

Eradication, control etc. F

Domestic trade E

International trade E

Environment D

Based on the decision rules described in Table 2.4, that is, where the consequences of a pest with respect to one or more criteria are ‘F’, the overall consequences are estimated to be HIGH.

6. 
   Unrestricted risk estimate
   

Unrestricted risk is the result of combining the probability of entry, establishment and spread with the estimate of consequences. Probabilities and consequences are combined using the risk estimation matrix shown in Table 2.5.

Unrestricted risk estimate for Oriental fruit fly
Overall probability of entry, establishment and spread	Moderate
Consequences	High
Unrestricted risk	High

As indicated, the unrestricted risk for Oriental fruit fly has been assessed as ‘high’, which exceeds Australia’s ALOP. Therefore, specific risk management measures are required for this pest.

6. 
   Oystershell scale - Diaspidiotus ostreaeformis
   
   1. 
      Introduction
      

Diaspidiotus ostreaeformis (oystershell scale) is not present in Western Australia and is a pest of regional quarantine concern for that state.

Diaspidiotus ostreaeformis belongs to the armoured scale insect family Diaspididae which construct a wax-like covering or ‘scale’ that encapsulates the insect (Carver et al. 1991) and protects it against physical damage and natural enemies (Foldi 1990). Throughout most of their life, armoured scales are sessile and are firmly affixed to their host plant by their mouthparts (Burger and Ulenberg 1990).

Females and males of D. ostreaeformis have a different life cycle. The female life stages include egg, nymph and adult, while the male has egg, nymph, pre-pupa, pupa and adult stages. There is no pupal stage in the female lifecycle. The adult females are approximately 1.3 mm in diameter, grey and conically shaped. The adult males are approximately 1mm in length, winged, and live only from 1 to 3 days. Hatched first instar nymphs (crawlers) are active and once they settle on the plant to feed, they become immobile and develop a protective covering. Although heavy infestations of oystershell scale are mainly found on the bark and stems of apple trees, they can also be found on fruit near the calyx or stem-end. Diaspidiotus ostreaeformis overwinters as diapausing second instar nymphs. There is one annual generation per year (CAB International 2008).

The risk scenario of concern for D. ostreaeformis is the presence of nymphs and adults on apple fruit.

Diaspidiotus ostreaeformis was assessed in the Final Import Risk Analysis Report for Apples from New Zealand (Biosecurity Australia 2006a) and New Zealand stone fruit to Western Australia (Biosecurity Australia 2006b).

The probability of importation for D. ostreaeformis was rated as ‘low’ in the assessments in the New Zealand apple IRA (Biosecurity Australia 2006a) because this species is only found in New Zealand’s South Island, which constitutes only a small portion of the apple export production area of New Zealand.

The distribution of D. ostreaeformis with a commodity after arrival in Western Australia, its establishment and spread in Western Australia, and the consequences it may cause will be the same for any commodity in which the species is imported into Western Australia. Accordingly, there is no need to re-assess these components. However, differences in commodities, horticultural practices, climatic conditions and the prevalence of the pest between previous export areas (New Zealand) and China make it necessary to re-assess the likelihood that D. ostreaeformis will be imported to Western Australia with apples from China.

2. 
   Reassessment of probability of importation
   

The likelihood that D. ostreaeformis will arrive in Western Australia with the importation of the commodity: MODERATE.

• 
  Diaspidiotus ostreaeformis is reported in the provinces of Anhui, Heilongjiang, Liaoning, Shaanxi and Shanxi, and the autonomous regions of Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang Uygur of China. Apple is one of the main hosts (Watson 2005).
  
• 
  Diaspidiotus ostreaeformis mostly infests the bark on the stems and branches of the host trees, causing drying of the tissues (Watson 2005). It may also occur on fruit, where it causes red spots (Watson 2005). This damage may be noted during quality inspection.
  
• 
  Post-harvest grading and packing procedures would not be effective in removing this pest from the fruit, because the insects settle and stick on the fruit.
  
• 
  Diaspidiotus ostreaeformis overwinters as second instar nymphs (Watson 2005), suggesting that temporary cold storage and transportation would not be effective in killing this scale.
  

The widespread distribution of oystershell scale in China moderated by the removal of damaged fruit during quality inspection supports a risk rating for importation of ‘moderate’.

3. 
   Probability of distribution, of establishment and of spread
   

As indicated above, the probability of distribution, of establishment and of spread for D. ostreaeformis in Western Australia will be the same as those assessed for apples from New Zealand (Biosecurity Australia 2006a). The ratings from the previous assessments are presented below:

Probability of distribution: LOW

Probability of establishment: HIGH

Probability of spread: MODERATE

4. 
   Overall probability of entry, establishment and spread
   

The overall probability of entry, establishment and spread is determined by combining the probabilities of entry, of establishment and of spread using the matrix of ‘rules’ for combining qualitative likelihood shown in Table 2.2.

The overall likelihood that D. ostreaeformis will enter Western Australia as a result of trade in the commodity from the country of origin, be distributed in a viable state to suitable hosts, establish in that area and subsequently spread within Western Australia: LOW.

5. 
   Consequences
   

The consequences of the establishment of D. ostreaeformis in Western Australia have been estimated previously for apples from New Zealand (Biosecurity Australia 2006a). This estimate of impact scores is provided below:

Plant life or health D

Any other aspects of the environment A
Eradication, control, etc. C
Domestic trade B
International trade C
Environment B

Based on the decision rules described in Table 2.4, that is, where the consequences of a pest with respect to one or more criteria are ‘D’, the overall consequences are estimated to be LOW.

6. 
   Unrestricted risk estimate
   

Unrestricted risk is the result of combining the probability of entry, establishment and spread with the estimate of consequences. Probabilities and consequences are combined using the risk estimation matrix shown in Table 2.5.

Unrestricted risk estimate for oystershell scale
Overall probability of entry, establishment and spread	Low
Consequences	Low
Unrestricted risk	Very low

As indicated, the unrestricted risk for oystershell scale has been assessed as ‘very low’, which achieves Australia’s ALOP. Therefore, specific risk management measures are not required for this pest.

.

7. 
   Pear white scale - Lopholeucaspis japonica
   

1. 
   Introduction
   

Lopholeucaspis japonica (pear white scale) belongs to the armoured scale insect family Diaspididae which construct a wax-like covering or ‘scale’ that encapsulates the insect (Carver et al. 1991) and protects it against physical damage and natural enemies (Foldi 1990). Throughout most of their life, armoured scales are sessile and are firmly affixed to their host plant by their mouthparts (Burger and Ulenberg 1990). Lopholeucaspis japonica is a major pest of Citrus species and also feeds on many other horticultural crops such as apple and pear and ornamental and amenity plants (Ben-Dov et al. 2006; CABI/EPPO 2007b).

Females and males of L. japonica have a different life cycle. The female life stages include egg, nymph and adult, while the male has egg, nymph, pre-pupa, pupa and adult stages. There is no pupal stage in the female lifecycle. Adult females are pale violet, 0.9–1.1 mm long and protected by a red-brown scale cover, 1.5–2.0 mm in length. Male scales are smaller and more oblong than the female and at the final moult produce tiny winged males that slip out from beneath the scale and fly off to find females to mate. Eggs of L. japonica are 0.25 mm long and are laid under the scale cover of the adult female. First-instar nymphs or ‘crawlers’ are mobile; the sexes are indistinguishable at this stage. Second instar female nymphs are sessile and are protected by a dark-brown scale cover 1.5–2.0 mm long. Second instar male nymphs are similar to females but smaller with whitish scale cover (CAB International 2008). It reproduces one to two generations per year (CAB International 2008).

The risk scenario of concern for pear white scale is the presence of nymphs and/or adults on apple fruit.

Lopholeucaspis japonica (pear white scale) was included in the existing import policy for pears from China (AQIS 1998b; Biosecurity Australia 2005b) and Fuji apples from Japan (AQIS 1998a). The assessment of pear white scale presented here builds on these existing policies.

2. 
   Probability of entry
   

The probability of entry is considered in two parts, the probability of importation and the probability of distribution, which consider pre-border and post-border issues respectively.

Probability of importation

The likelihood that L. japonica will arrive in Australia with the importation of the commodity: HIGH.

• 
  Lopholeucaspis japonica is widely spread in many provinces of China, including main apple production areas such as Shanxi (CAB International 2008).
  
• 
  Lopholeucaspis japonica also attacks apples although its main hosts of economic importance are Citrus species (CAB International 2008; CABI/EPPO 2007b).
  
• 
  Nymphs and adults of L. japonica are found on leaves and also on the bark of branches and sometimes on fruit (CABI/EPPO 2007b).
  
• 
  Once the first instar crawlers settle on the host, subsequent nymphs and adults inside the scale covers are sessile and remain attached to their host. Thus, the fruit sorting and packing processes may not remove them effectively.
  
• 
  Lopholeucaspis japonica would be likely to survive cold storage and transportation because it readily overwinters at temperatures of -20 to -25 °C in the Russian Far East (CAB International 2008).
  
• 
  The small size of L. japonica (scale cover 1.5-2 mm) makes them difficult to detect, especially at low population levels.

  The small size, sessile nature of most life stages and hard external covering of almost all life stages of scales all support a risk rating for importation of ‘high’.

  
  

Probability of distribution

The likelihood that L. japonica will be distributed in Australia as a result of the processing, sale or disposal of the commodity: LOW.

• 
  Apple fruit is intended for human consumption and nymphs and adults of L. japonica may remain on the fruit during retail distribution. The unconsumed parts of the fruit, especially skin and calyx of infested fruit is likely to end up in fruit waste, which may further aid distribution of viable L. japonica. Disposal of infested waste fruit is likely to be via commercial or domestic rubbish systems or discarded where the fruit is consumed. However, some fruit waste may be disposed of in the home garden which provides an opportunity for these pests to transfer to susceptible hosts in the vicinity.
  
• 
  The ability of L. japonica to disperse is limited. Nymphs and adults lack active mechanisms for long range dispersal, the first-instar nymphs (crawlers) can be carried by wind. Second-instar nymphs and adult females are sessile. Adult males have wings but are fragile and short-lived.
  
• 
  Lopholeucaspis japonica has been reported from 25 families, 43 genera and at least 58 species or subspecies of host plants (Ben-Dov et al. 2006).
  

The limited mobility of almost all life stages of L. japonica supports a risk rating for distribution of ‘low’.

Overall probability of entry (importation  distribution)

The overall probability of entry is determined by combining the probability of importation with the probability of distribution using the matrix of rules shown in Table 2.2. The likelihood that L. japonica will enter Australia as a result of trade in the commodity and be distributed in a viable state to a suitable host: LOW.

3. 
   Probability of establishment
   

The likelihood that L. japonica will establish based on a comparison of factors in the source and destination areas that affect pest survival and reproduction: HIGH.

• 
  Lopholeucaspis japonica feeds on a wide range of host plants including several horticultural crops such as apple, pear, citrus as well as some ornamental plants such as camellia and ficus (Ben-Dov et al. 2006).
  
• 
  Lopholeucaspis japonica has been reported from Africa, Asia, North and South Americas and Russia (Ben-Dov et al. 2006). This indicates the species has the ability to adapt to new environments. Climatic conditions in many parts of Australia are similar to the areas where L. japonica currently occurs.
  
• 
  Lopholeucaspis japonica has one generation per year in a cold climate such as Far East of Russia and two generations per year in milder climates such as Maryland and Virginia, USA and parts of Japan (CAB International 2008).
  
• 
  In spring, adult females each lay 35-60 eggs under the scale cover. The first-instar larvae hatch and emerge from under the female's scale to seek feeding sites on the bark (especially in cool countries) or (in warmer conditions) on the upper leaf surface, near a vein or leaf margin. Lopholeucaspis japonica overwinter as second instars under the bark in the former USSR and Oita, Japan, and as mated adult females in Tokyo, Japan (CAB International 2008).
  
• 
  Existing control programs may be effective for some hosts (e.g. broad spectrum pesticide application) but not all hosts, because of its wide host range.
  

The wide host plant range, adaptability of armoured scales over a wide climatic range and limited pesticide effectiveness to control these pests support a risk rating for establishment of ‘high’.

4. 
   Probability of spread
   

The likelihood that L. japonica will spread, based on a comparison of factors in the area of origin and in Australia that affect the expansion of the geographic distribution of the pest: MODERATE.

• 
  Lopholeucaspis japonica occurs in many parts of Asia, Africa and North and South America, indicating the Australian environment would be suitable for its spread.
  
• 
  The commercial fruit crop hosts of L. japonica such as apples, citrus and pears are grown in many parts of Australia. Widely distributed suitable hosts are grown in home gardens, parks and along roads, which would aid the spread of L. japonica.
  
• 
  With natural barriers including arid areas, climatic differentials and long distances present between these areas, it would be difficult for L. japonica to disperse from one area to another unaided.
  
• 
  The main dispersal phase of L. japonica is the first-instar crawler, which is probably capable of walking no more than a metre or so, within the same tree or possibly from one tree to another if the branches are touching. However, crawlers can be carried greater distances by the wind and on larger animals including people as they move around the orchard (CAB International 2008).
  
• 
  Adult males have wings, but are very fragile and short lived and only travel for short distances.
  
• 
  Apples and other fruit hosts have unrestricted movement around most of the country. Such movement would aid the spread of L. japonica on infested fruit.
  
• 
  Natural enemies such as parasitoids and general predators are reported as being associated with L. japonica (CAB International 2008) but their potential effectiveness in Australia is difficult to assess.
  

The lack of a natural mechanism for long distance dispersal and the restricted mobility to first instar nymphs support a risk rating of L. japonica for spread of ‘moderate’.

5. 
   Overall probability of entry, establishment and spread
   

The overall probability of entry, establishment and spread is determined by combining the probabilities of entry, of establishment and of spread using the matrix of ‘rules’ for combining qualitative likelihood shown in Table 2.2.

The overall likelihood that L. japonica will enter Australia as a result of trade in the commodity from the country of origin, be distributed in a viable state to suitable hosts, establish in that area and subsequently spread within Australia: LOW.

6. 
   Consequences
   

The consequences of the establishment of L. japonica in Australia have been estimated according to the methods described in Table 2.3.

Based on the decision rules described in Table 2.4, that is, where the consequences of a pest with respect to one or more criteria are ‘D’, the overall consequences are estimated to be LOW.

Reasoning for these ratings is provided below:

Criterion	Estimate
DIRECT
Plant life or health	D – Significant at the district level Lopholeucaspis japonica is a main pest of Citrus species and also feeds on many other horticultural crops such as apple and pear and ornamental and amenity plants (Ben-Dov et al. 2006; CABI/EPPO 2007b). Lopholeucaspis japonica attacks all citrus severely, multiplying rapidly to cover the trunk, branches and young shoots with dense colonies. Individual trees are killed by heavy infestations, while neighbouring trees may be virtually unaffected (CAB International 2008).
Other aspects of the environment	B – Minor significance at the local level There are no known direct consequences of this species on the natural or built environment, but its introduction into a new environment may lead to competition for resources with native species. Note that the impact was rated as ‘C’ in Biosecurity Australia (2008b) when three species of armoured scales, including L. japonica, were considered together.
INDIRECT
Control, eradication, etc.	D – Significant at the district level Programs to minimise the impact of this pest on host plants may be costly and may include additional pesticide applications and crop monitoring. Existing control strategies in place for other economically important armoured scales may have impacts on L. japonica in Australia. However, existing IPM programs may be disrupted due to possible increases in the use of insecticides. Costs for crop monitoring and consultant’s advice regarding management of this pest may be incurred by the producer.
Domestic trade	C – Significant at the local level If L. japonica becomes established in part of Australia, it might have an effect at the local level due to resulting trade restrictions on the sale or movement of a wide range of commodities such as apples, pears and citrus between areas in Western Australia and between other states/territories.
International trade	C – Significant at the local level The presence of L. japonica in commercial production areas of a wide range of commodities (e.g. apples, pears and citrus) might limit access to some overseas markets which are free from these pests.
Environment	B – Minor significance at the local level Pesticide applications or other control activities would be required to control this pest on susceptible crops, which could have minor indirect impact on the environment.

7.