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Report No: ACS24825

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Europe and Central Asia




THE IMPACTS OF THE EL NIÑO AND LA NIÑA ON LARGE GRAIN PRODUCING COUNTRIES IN ECA: YIELD, POVERTY AND POLICY RESPONSE













May 2018







GFA03




EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA










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Standard Disclaimer:

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This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/ The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.

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Copyright Statement:

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The material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions or all of this work without permission may be a violation of applicable law. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/ The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grant permission to reproduce portions of the work promptly.
For permission to photocopy or reprint any part of this work, please send a request with complete information to the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA, telephone 978-750-8400, fax 978-750-4470, http://www.copyright.com/.
All other queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA, fax 202-522-2422, e-mail pubrights@worldbank.org.




El Niño


THE IMPACTS OF THE EL NIÑO AND LA NIÑA ON LARGE GRAIN PRODUCING COUNTRIES IN ECA:

YIELD, POVERTY AND POLICY RESPONSE

https://www.climate.gov/sites/default/files/iconic_enso_elnino_lrg.jpg


La Niña


La Niña

https://www.climate.gov/sites/default/files/iconic_enso_lanina_lrg.jpg

Contents


Abbreviations 7

Acknowledgements 8

Executive Summary 9

1.Introduction 15

1.1.Background and Rationale 15

1.2.Objective and Scope 19

1.3.Methodology 19

2.The El Niño Phenomenon and Grain Production 21

2.1.El Niño /El Niña events 21

2.2.The Agricultural Stress Index 22

2.3.Measuring Drought Intensity 24

2.4.Grain production and El Niño/La Niña events 26

2.4.1.Ukraine 28

2.4.2.Kazakhstan 30

2.4.3.Russian Federation 33

2.5.Summary of findings 37

3.Policy Response to Droughts in the RUK Region 39

3.1.Introduction 39

3.2.Grain Production, Policy Interventions, And Trade In The Eca Wheat Sector 39

3.2.1.Russia 40

3.2.2.Ukraine 43

3.2.3.Kazakhstan 45

3.2.4.South Caucasus and Central Asia 47

3.3.Trade patterns 48

3.3.1.Russia 48

3.3.2.Ukraine 48

3.3.3.Kazakhstan 49

3.3.4.South Caucasus 49

3.3.5.Central Asia 50

3.4. The Effects of wheat export controls in the RUK 51

3.4.1.Impact on domestic wheat markets in RUK 51

3.4.2.Price effects on the wheat-to-bread supply chain in the RUK 53

3.4.3.Effects on price volatility in the RUK 54

3.4.4.Price effects on import-depending countries in CA and SC 55

3.5.Effects on competition and trade 59

3.5.1.The effects on market competition 59

3.5.2.Effects on regional trade 60

4.Agricultural Stress due to Climatic Variations and Poverty 62

4.1.Kazakhstan 64

4.2.Russia 65

4.3.Ukraine 66

5.Conclusion 68

References 70


List of Boxes


List of Tables



List of Figures





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