ElNinoLaNinainecafinal docx

	Report No: ACS24825
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	Europe and Central Asia
	THE IMPACTS OF THE EL NIÑO AND LA NIÑA ON LARGE GRAIN PRODUCING COUNTRIES IN ECA: YIELD, POVERTY AND POLICY RESPONSE
	May 2018
	GFA03
	EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA
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El Niño


THE IMPACTS OF THE EL NIÑO AND LA NIÑA ON LARGE GRAIN PRODUCING COUNTRIES IN ECA:

YIELD, POVERTY AND POLICY RESPONSE




La Niña


La Niña

Contents

Abbreviations 7

Acknowledgements 8

Executive Summary 9

1.Introduction 15

1.1.Background and Rationale 15

1.2.Objective and Scope 19

1.3.Methodology 19

2.The El Niño Phenomenon and Grain Production 21

2.1.El Niño /El Niña events 21

2.2.The Agricultural Stress Index 22

2.3.Measuring Drought Intensity 24

2.4.Grain production and El Niño/La Niña events 26

2.4.1.Ukraine 28

2.4.2.Kazakhstan 30

2.4.3.Russian Federation 33

2.5.Summary of findings 37

3.Policy Response to Droughts in the RUK Region 39

3.1.Introduction 39

3.2.Grain Production, Policy Interventions, And Trade In The Eca Wheat Sector 39

3.2.1.Russia 40

3.2.2.Ukraine 43

3.2.3.Kazakhstan 45

3.2.4.South Caucasus and Central Asia 47

3.3.Trade patterns 48

3.3.1.Russia 48

3.3.2.Ukraine 48

3.3.3.Kazakhstan 49

3.3.4.South Caucasus 49

3.3.5.Central Asia 50

3.4. The Effects of wheat export controls in the RUK 51

3.4.1.Impact on domestic wheat markets in RUK 51

3.4.2.Price effects on the wheat-to-bread supply chain in the RUK 53

3.4.3.Effects on price volatility in the RUK 54

3.4.4.Price effects on import-depending countries in CA and SC 55

3.5.Effects on competition and trade 59

3.5.1.The effects on market competition 59

3.5.2.Effects on regional trade 60

4.Agricultural Stress due to Climatic Variations and Poverty 62

4.1.Kazakhstan 64

4.2.Russia 65

4.3.Ukraine 66

5.Conclusion 68

References 70

List of Boxes

List of Tables

List of Figures