Ents Alfred Nzo District Municipality strategic Agenda

About 80% of population in Alfred Nzo is young below the age of 35

	^0^-^1^4^(C^hi^l^d^r^en^)^1^5^to^3^4^(^Y^ou^t^h^)^3^5^to^6^4^(^Ad^u^l^t^s)^65^+^(^E^l^de^r^l^y^)	^Gr^an^d^T^o^t^a^l
^A^l^fred^Nz^o	^3^4^5^,^6^2^5^3^4^0^,^7^5^3^1^3^1^,^4^8^8^49^,9^9^7	^8^6^7^,^8^6^4
^M^atat^i^ele Umzimvubu Mbizana Ntabankulu	^82^,^1^8^0^86^,^0^3^1^37^,^0^4^4^14^,^1^9^2 73,104 80,467 33,337 12,713 138,257 123,567 42,669 15,455 52,083 50,689 18,441 7,636	^2^1^9^,^4^4^7 199,620 319,948 128,848

	^0 to^1^4^1^5^to^3^4^(^Y^ou^t^h^)^3^5^to^6^4^(^Ad^u^l^t^s)^65^+^(^E^l^de^r^l^y^) (Children)	^Gr^an^d^T^o^t^a^l
^A^l^fred^Nz^o	^3^9^.^8^3^9^.^3^1^5^.^2^5^.^8	^1^0^0
Matatiele Umzimvubu Mbizana Ntabankulu	37.4 39.2 16.9 6.5 36.6 40.3 16.7 6.4 43.2 38.6 13.3 4.8 40.4 39.3 14.3 5.9	100 100 100 100

^{Source: Statistics South Africa, 2016 Community Survey Table 1.4}
The demographic analysis of Alfred Nzo reveals that the population is young, with about 80% of the total population being below the age of 35 (See Table 1.4). This implies that expenditure on social infrastructure such as schools, health care facilities and recreational centers are crucial. However, evidence from both the age pyramid (Figure 1.4) and the structure of the population (Table 1.4) reveals that elderly people in Alfred Nzo are very few. Adults aged between 35 and 64, who are mature people responsible to bring food on the table, only account for 15% of the population. This implies that the dependency ratio in the district is high.
Dependency Ratio
What is Dependency ratio and what importance it has in demographic analysis? The dependency ratio measures the ratio of the non-working age population (i.e. people between the ages of 0 and

14 years old, and those older than 65 years) to the working age population (15–64 years). The higher the ratio, the more pressure there is upon the working age population to provide for the non- working age individuals.

Dependency ratios of Districts and Metros in the Eastern Cape
_90% 89%
80%


^80%
70% 66%

_{71% 73%} 74%



60%
_50% ^{48% 48%}
52%

40%

30%

Buffalo City Nelson Sarah

Eastern Joe Gqabi Amathole Chris Hani O.R. Tambo Alfred Nzo

Metro Mandela Bay

^Baartman

Source: Own Calculations based on Community Survey 2016 Figure 1.5
Results in 1.5 reveal that the higher dependency ratios are associated with rural districts and districts with limited economic activity. The opposite is also shown with lower dependency ratios being associated with urban districts and Metros. However, the measure does not take into account that age may not be an indicator of economic dependency as children and the elderly can qualify for social security grants. The indicator also assumes that those older than 65 years do not have other sources of income (e.g. pensions). However, the indicator does provide a useful indication of age- based dependency, both for households and for the state.
Where the ratio is high, there is a greater burden placed on the state to assist households with the provision of child and social services and welfare assistance. The highest dependency ratio in the province was in the Alfred Nzo District Municipality (88.8%), followed by the O.R. Tambo District Municipality (80.3%). The Eastern Cape’s two metros, namely the Nelson Mandela Bay Metro and the Buffalo City Metro, had the lowest dependency ratio at 45.9% and 47.8% respectively. Cities naturally attract the working age population who migrate from rural areas to seek work opportunities. This often results in the very young and old populations remaining in rural and under developed areas.

A young and growing population
Geographically, much of South Africa's population growth is taking place in the urban areas, where over 60 percent of the country's people now live. However, although they provide economic opportunities, urban areas face huge developmental challenges.

900000
867,864

850000

800000

801,344

750000

700000

650000

A Growing Population in Alfred Nzo Local Municipality
Source: Statistics South Africa and Quantec, 2016 Figure 1.6
Figure 1.6 provides demographic trends for Alfred Nzo District municipality. Between the last census in 2011 and the latest community survey in 2016, population growth in district has been very impressive. This, in turn, has an impact on resource allocation, the consumption of goods and services and human capital development, which influences factors such as education, employment, income distribution and the physical well-being of a population.

Head of households in Alfred Nzo

Head of Household			Grand Total
	^Ma^l^e F^e^male	^Ma^l^e F^e^male
^East^e^rn^C^a^p^e	^9^0^2^,^7^1^9^8^7^0^,^7^5^5	^50^.9^49^.1	^1^,^7^73^,^4^7^3
^A^l^fred^Nz^o	^84^,2^6^6^1^1^1^,^7^0^9	^4^3^.^0^5^7^.^0	^1^9^5^,^9^7^5
^M^atat^i^ele Umzimvubu Mbizana Ntabankulu	^26^,^8^0^9^30^,^0^5^9 22,548 28,982 24,428 36,955 10,482 15,713	^47^.1^52^.9 43.8 56.2 39.8 60.2 40.0 60.0	^56^,^8^6^8 51,530 61,383 26,195

^{Source: Statistics South Africa, 2016 Community Survey Table 1.5}
This section highlighted four important facts about Alfred Nzo district municipality. Firstly, its high growing population could contribute to high demand for goods and services. Secondly, the population age structure results in both a triangular-shaped pyramid and a rectangular-shaped pyramid. Thirdly, households in Alfred Nzo is predominantly headed by female. Lastly, about 80% of the population is young below 35 years of age.

3.1.3 Alfred Nzo Socio Economic Performance and Development

This section presents a brief snapshot of Alfred Nzo District’s economy. It looks at the structure and performance of the economy, its features, dynamics, potentials of key sectors, and economic trends. It includes a sectoral analysis and makes reference to selected key sectors which are major contributors to the economic activity of the district and drivers of Alfred Nzo economic growth.
Alfred Nzo IDP acknowledges the following challenges facing the district:
 High rate of unemployment

 High poverty rate

 Low income levels

 Skills shortage

 Slow average economic growth

 Transformation on the ownership of land is slow

 Slow delivery on Land Reform Programme

 Land use planning : sparsely distributed population and topography resulting in costly provision of services

 Limited economic potential in rural areas / poor investment in the area due to land under the Traditional Authority (Communal Land Tenure)

 Environmental health and management related issues

 High prevalence of HIV / AIDS

 Absence of tertiary education facilities

 Poor access to Health Care facilities

 High number of child headed households

This document will provide a diagnostic of challenges facing the district in line with the socio- economic indicators listed above.
Selected key economic indicator: Alfred Nzo, 2015
Table 2.2 presents a summary of selected key economic indicators for Alfred Nzo.
 In 2015, the total production (Output) of goods and services in Alfred Nzo was R18 671 million.
 The input cost (Intermediate consumption expenditure) used to produce those goods and services was R8 859 million.
 The difference between Output and input (Also called Gross Value Added) was R9 812 million.
 57% of GVA was used as Compensation of Employees (CoE) and 41% as Gross Operating

Surplus (GOS)

 The input cost accounts for 47% of total production output and the GVA for 53%


Selected key economic indicators: Alfred Nzo, 2015 (R millions at constant 2010 prices)

	^Re^a^l^Gr^o^s^s^v^a^l^ue^Re^a^l^C^o^mp^en^s^a^t^i^o^n^R^ea^l^Gr^o^s^s^Re^a^l O^u^t^pu^t^a^t added at basic of employees operating surplus basic prices
^A^l^fred N^z^o	^9^,^8^1^2	^5^,^5^9^5	^4^,^0^1^7	^18^,^6^7^1
^U^m^z^i^m^v^ub^u Matatiele Mbizana Ntabankulu	^2^,^7^2^8^1^,^6^4^0^1^,^0^4^1^5^,^0^9^6 3,524 1,909 1,536 6,787 2,663 1,508 1,098 5,139 897 538 342 1,650
^E^a^stern C^ap^e	^2^1^0^,^0^0^6^1^1^8^,^3^2^8^87^,1^6^5^4^6^9^,^8^6^0

^{Source: Quantec easy data, 2016 Table 2.2}
GDP in Alfred Nzo has grown dramatically between 2003, it reached a pick of 6.7% growth in 2007. High performance was offset by recession in 2008/2009. Since then, growth in the district has stagnated above 2 percent. Overall, the district has performed above the province (See Figure 2.5).
Alfred Nzo economic performance and trends: GDP growth rate between 1994 and 2015



8.0
7.0
6.0

6.7

6.3



5.0
4.0

_5.1 5.2

^4.5 4.3 4.3



3.0
2.0
1.0
-
-1.0
-2.0

2.6

3.3

0.7

Eastern Cape Alfred Nzo

2.4
2.9

1.3

Source: Own calculations derived from Quantec Easy Data, 2016 Figure 2:5