| Step 3: Analyze and interpret the data
Regularly review the data from routine reports and check if it crosses the threshold level.
Threshold levels are determined based on three criteria:
1. Pre-existing National/Internationally developed thresholds: e.g. a single case of measles in a
tribal area is considered an outbreak
2. Based on Historical Data: e.g. if data for a particular disease is available, then the monthly
mean should be calculated for the previous three years (excluding months in which there was
an outbreak).
3. Increasing trends of the disease over a short duration of time (e.g. in weeks). If the number
of cases is found to be much below the threshold, you could interpret it as no cause for worry.
Alternatively, you could check for under-reporting or review the threshold value.
If the cases are approaching the threshold level or have crossed it, then suspect an outbreak. Analyze the reports for surveillance quality as follows:
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