Европейска схема

Macroeconomic forecast for GHG emissions in the period 2005-2012 based on “business as usual” scenario

In determining the threshold emission limits/annum from participating installations, the projection for overall national GHG emissions comprising all anthropogenic sources of emissions plays a central role. In order to prepare a representative estimate, considerable amount of work was performed within the short deadlines set for developing the NAP. As of 23 January 2006, the team had in place a projection for GHG emissions, based on the forecast macroeconomic indicators of the country.

The methodology used for the forecast includes the following steps:

1. Macroeconomic forecast for the growth rate of GDP and GVA for the country and by sectors for both covered and non-covered by the Scheme economic sectors, including the following groups of industries:

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  Ferrous metallurgy
  
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  Cement production
  
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  Lime production
  
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  Glass production
  
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  Ceramics production
  
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  Cellulose and paper production.
  

2. Elaboration of a macroeconomic assessment of the relation of the GVA growth with the changes in the production volume in above groups of industries.

3. Preparation of a forecast for the combustion energy balance of the country, including:

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  A forecast for the final consumption of fuels and energy by sectors for both covered and non covered sectors, also by groups;
  
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  A plan for least cost development of the electric power industry;
  
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  A forecast for primary gross consumption of fuels and energy.
  

4. Preparation of a detailed projection for the GHG emissions with a level of detail corresponding to the level of detail in the forecasts under the above three points.

5. Assessment of the effect of adopted policies and measures to reduce CO₂ emissions in not covered sectors.

The approach applied to the preparation of the above mentioned forecasts is “business as usual”. This approach does not take into account new measures, which are still not adopted as official state policy and are especially directed to the reduction of emissions, particularly when the purpose of this reduction is emission trading. This means, for example, that the assumption is that energy efficiency, renewable energy sources and co-generation will develop on the basis of the usual market mechanisms. The reduction of emissions will be stimulated through emission trading and the reserve for new entrants determined in the NAP.

At the various stages of the preparation of the forecast, the work has been performed by the AEAF, NSI and MEE, with the assistance of Bulgarian and Dutch consultants. Information from other ministries and agencies has been used as well, in order to cover all sectors of the industry, agriculture and forestry, transport, services, households, public sector and waste.

The forecast is based on the Government’s Programme for ensuring a rate of 5.5% GDP growth. The main macroeconomic indicators are presented in the Table below.