Table 5. Forecast for the GDP growth and production volume, billion leva
Year
|
2005
|
2006
|
2007
|
2008
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
2012
|
GDP, prices as of 2003
|
38,511
|
40,629
|
43,026
|
45,565
|
48,117
|
50,643
|
53,302
|
56,020
|
Actual GDP growth, %
|
5,6
|
5,5
|
5,9
|
5,9
|
5,6
|
5,25
|
5,25
|
5,1
|
GVA, prices as of 2003
|
33,595
|
35,443
|
37,570
|
39,899
|
42,213
|
44,450
|
46,984
|
49,615
|
Including:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
services
|
19,993
|
21,093
|
22,358
|
23,744
|
25,121
|
26,453
|
27,961
|
29,527
|
industry
|
9,904
|
10,448
|
11,075
|
11,762
|
12,444
|
13,104
|
13,850
|
14,626
|
agriculture and forestry
|
3,699
|
3,902
|
4,136
|
4,393
|
4,648
|
4,894
|
5,173
|
5,463
|
Production volume, current prices
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Industrial enterprises
|
32,356
|
36,322
|
40,311
|
44,437
|
49,239
|
53,852
|
59,127
|
64,760
|
Construction enterprises
|
5,081
|
5,653
|
6,141
|
6,627
|
7,191
|
7,702
|
8,283
|
8,889
|
Primary energy
|
4,499
|
4,924
|
5,312
|
5,687
|
6,114
|
6,482
|
6,891
|
7,300
|
The National Electrical Company (NEK), pursuant to the Energy Act, has prepared a forecast for the consumption and production of electric energy until 2012. The expected average annual growth of gross energy consumption is about two times lower than the GDP growth (2.9% and 5.5%, respectively). Data is summarised in Table 6.
Table 6. Forecasted energy balance
Year
|
2002
|
2003
|
2004
|
2005
|
2006
|
2007
|
2008
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
2012
|
Production of electric energy, GWh
|
42 701
|
42 546
|
41 620
|
44 259
|
40 770
|
40 400
|
40 980
|
42 680
|
46 090
|
48 630
|
47 310
|
Consumption in the country, GWh
|
36 406
|
37 057
|
35 741
|
36 617
|
36 770
|
37 410
|
38 310
|
39 130
|
40 530
|
42 060
|
43 140
|
Maximum load, MW
|
6 768
|
6 717
|
6 394
|
6 502
|
6 930
|
7 100
|
7 240
|
7 380
|
7 540
|
7 770
|
7 950
|
Export, GWh
|
6 295
|
5 489
|
5 879
|
7 642
|
4 000
|
2 990
|
2 670
|
3 550
|
5 560
|
6 570
|
4 170
|
NEK prepared also a plan for the functioning and development of the electric energy system. The plan envisages closing some of existing capacities and opening new capacities. The least cost plan allows determining the consumption of fuels for production of electric energy in the thermal power plants and co-generation plants. Projections for GHG emissions from TPP and co-generation have been prepared, based on the forecast for used fuels for production of electricity and heating:
Table 7. Projection for GHG emissions from TPP and cogeneration
Year
|
|
2007
|
2008
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
2012
|
Condensing plants
|
Gg.
|
22 326
|
22 415
|
24 028
|
27 580
|
30 252
|
29 086
|
Co-generation plants
|
Gg
|
9 123
|
9 210
|
9 299
|
9 494
|
7 884
|
8 002
|
The statistical analysis of production volumes by sectors is used to determine the following forecast changes in production volumes until 2012 of functioning plants in the sub-sectors with installations covered by the emission trading scheme:
Table 8. Index of production volumes of sectors participants in the scheme (except new entrants and sleeping installations), 2003 =1
Sector
|
2004
|
2005
|
2006
|
2007
|
2008
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
2012
|
-heating – public sector
|
1,037
|
1,102
|
1,166
|
1,231
|
1,295
|
1,359
|
1,424
|
1,488
|
1,553
|
-heating for industrial purposes and other CP, incl.:
|
0,000
|
0,000
|
0,000
|
0,000
|
0,000
|
0,000
|
0,000
|
0,000
|
0,000
|
Production of chemical products and rubber
|
1,111
|
1,182
|
1,250
|
1,316
|
1,380
|
1,442
|
1,503
|
1,562
|
1,621
|
Production of food and beverages
|
1,058
|
1,119
|
1,179
|
1,238
|
1,297
|
1,356
|
1,415
|
1,473
|
1,531
|
Production of wood material and wood articles thereof (except for wooden furniture)
|
1,029
|
1,142
|
1,254
|
1,366
|
1,479
|
1,591
|
1,704
|
1,816
|
1,929
|
Production of textile and textile articles (except for apparel)
|
1,081
|
1,173
|
1,265
|
1,357
|
1,449
|
1,540
|
1,632
|
1,724
|
1,816
|
Production and casting of non-ferrous metals
|
0,986
|
1,019
|
1,049
|
1,076
|
1,101
|
1,124
|
1,145
|
1,165
|
1,184
|
Production of machines, equipment and household appliances
|
1,053
|
1,106
|
1,155
|
1,200
|
1,241
|
1,281
|
1,317
|
1,352
|
1,385
|
Healthcare and social activities
|
1,037
|
1,102
|
1,166
|
1,231
|
1,295
|
1,359
|
1,424
|
1,488
|
1,553
|
Agriculture, hunting and related services
|
1,037
|
1,102
|
1,166
|
1,231
|
1,295
|
1,359
|
1,424
|
1,488
|
1,553
|
Distribution of natural gas
|
1,000
|
1,000
|
1,000
|
1,000
|
1,000
|
1,000
|
1,000
|
1,000
|
1,000
|
Refineries and oil products
|
1,060
|
1,124
|
1,191
|
1,262
|
1,338
|
1,419
|
1,504
|
1,594
|
1,689
|
Cement production
|
1,084
|
1,168
|
1,252
|
1,336
|
1,420
|
1,504
|
1,588
|
1,672
|
1,756
|
Lime production
|
1,084
|
1,168
|
1,252
|
1,336
|
1,420
|
1,504
|
1,588
|
1,672
|
1,756
|
Cellulose and paper production
|
1,143
|
1,285
|
1,428
|
1,570
|
1,713
|
1,855
|
1,998
|
2,140
|
2,283
|
Glass production
|
1,038
|
1,070
|
1,098
|
1,123
|
1,145
|
1,165
|
1,183
|
1,200
|
1,216
|
Ceramics production
|
1,027
|
1,057
|
1,083
|
1,107
|
1,129
|
1,149
|
1,167
|
1,185
|
1,201
|
Ferrous metallurgy
|
1,022
|
1,050
|
1,074
|
1,096
|
1,117
|
1,136
|
1,154
|
1,170
|
1,186
|
Based on those forecast indices and emissions from sectors covered by the Scheme for 2003, the projected emissions have been determined.
Table 9. Macroeconomic projection “business as usual” for anthropogenic GHG emissions, Gg.
Year
|
2007
|
2008
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
2012
|
Obligation under the Kyoto Protocol, Gg CO2 eqv.
|
-
|
127 283
|
127 283
|
127 283
|
127 283
|
127 283
|
Overall anthropogenic GHG emissions in the country, Gg CO2 eqv.
|
79 805,25
|
83 829,92
|
88 870,19
|
97 707,95
|
101 544,81
|
102 927,10
|
Overall GHG emissions of sectors not covered by the Scheme, Gg CO2 eqv
|
24 815,00
|
26 501,00
|
27 424,00
|
28 523,00
|
29 181,00
|
29 778,00
|
Overall GHG emissions of sectors covered by the Scheme, Gg CO2 eqv
|
54 990,25
|
57 328,92
|
61 446,19
|
69 184,95
|
72 363,81
|
73 149,10
|
Overall CO2 emissions of sectors covered by the Scheme, Gg CO2
|
50 413,42
|
52 544,80
|
56 302,00
|
63 366,83
|
66 205,67
|
66 934,66
|
Energy activities, including
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
-electric power
|
22 326,04
|
22 415,13
|
24 028,10
|
27 580,62
|
30 252,25
|
29 086,36
|
-combined production of heat and electric power
|
9 123,85
|
9 210,26
|
9 299,67
|
9 494,08
|
7 884,58
|
8 002,88
|
-heating – public sector
|
905,77
|
953,17
|
1 000,57
|
1 047,97
|
1 095,37
|
1 142,77
|
-heating for industrial purposes and other CP, incl.:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Production of chemical products and rubber
|
432,05
|
452,96
|
473,37
|
493,35
|
512,98
|
532,31
|
Production of food and beverages
|
601,31
|
630,16
|
658,91
|
687,39
|
715,96
|
744,34
|
Production of wood material and wood articles thereof (except for wooden furniture)
|
208,52
|
225,68
|
242,84
|
260,00
|
277,15
|
294,31
|
Production of textile and textile articles (except for apparel)
|
188,31
|
201,05
|
213,80
|
226,55
|
239,30
|
252,04
|
Production and casting of non-ferrous metals
|
156,68
|
160,29
|
163,63
|
166,74
|
169,65
|
172,39
|
Production of machines, equipment and household appliances
|
105,21
|
108,86
|
112,28
|
115,51
|
118,56
|
121,46
|
Healthcare and social activities
|
353,20
|
371,68
|
390,17
|
408,65
|
427,13
|
445,62
|
Agriculture, hunting and related services
|
219,18
|
230,65
|
242,12
|
253,59
|
265,06
|
276,53
|
Distribution of natural gas
|
219,00
|
219,00
|
219,00
|
219,00
|
219,00
|
219,00
|
Refineries and oil products
|
2 389,74
|
2 533,13
|
2 685,11
|
2 846,22
|
3 017,00
|
3 198,01
|
Cement production
|
4 588,08
|
4 933,63
|
5 376,48
|
7 139,70
|
7 359,82
|
7 579,94
|
Lime production
|
1 596,71
|
1 692,56
|
1 779,31
|
1 866,07
|
1 952,82
|
2 039,57
|
Cellulose and paper production
|
530,72
|
582,32
|
663,69
|
706,58
|
748,70
|
788,49
|
Glass production
|
371,94
|
375,68
|
379,81
|
383,57
|
387,04
|
388,42
|
Ceramics production
|
199,20
|
202,96
|
206,90
|
210,12
|
213,12
|
215,95
|
Ferrous metallurgy
|
5 897,92
|
6 045,62
|
6 166,23
|
6 261,12
|
6 350,20
|
6 434,28
|
Unknown new entrants
|
0,00
|
1 000,00
|
2 000,00
|
3 000,00
|
4 000,00
|
5 000,00
|
Corrections of the macroeconomic projection “business as usual” for compulsory measures that increase emissions and for reporting the amount of emission reductions under JI projects
The macroeconomic forecast “business as usual” does not take into account the impact of non economic factors on GHG emissions. Those factors results from the official Government policy and have a direct effect on covered installations. The factors are considered through corrections of the forecast.
The correction for compulsory measures which increase emissions is applied with the purpose to issue additional allowances to installations which for the period 2007–2012 will introduce compulsory measures that will increase emissions – for example, desulphurization installations that use lime or limestone.
The volume of the correction for each year “j” is defined on the basis of planned reduction of emissions of pollutants (mainly SO2) under the international obligations of the country and is equal to the volume of emissions that will be generated as a result of the application of the measures. These emissions increase the emissions in rows 1, 3 and 4 in Table 11.
Correction for reporting the volume of emission reductions (including early credits) under approved and supported JI projects Vcr (credits)
The assigned amount units for the country reflect the admissible emissions of the country under the Kyoto Protocol. “Joint Implementation” projects, within which early credits have been approved, should be considered in the determination of the change in admissible emissions for the country. Emission reductions which have been approved or supported for transfer to other countries in the framework of JI projects as early credits, reduce the volume of AAUs for the period 2008-2012. Emission reduction units as a result of already approved and supported JI projects are accounted in the projections for GHG emissions, therefore, they also should be considered here as a reduction of assigned amount units, following the guidelines of the European Commission according to which those allowances should not be reallocated for a second time.
The annual correction is equal to one fifth of the sum of already approved and planned for approval early credits of all JI projects. It is accepted that the correction for early credits will be expressed as a correction of the obligation under the Kyoto Protocol.
Table 10. Correction of the macroeconomic projection
№
|
Year
|
2007
|
2008
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
2012
|
1.
|
Compulsory measures, Gg CO2 eqv.
|
330,53
|
475,82
|
512,08
|
560,99
|
729,91
|
899,81
|
2.
|
Approved early credits JI, Gg CO2 eqv
|
|
624,50
|
624,50
|
624,50
|
624,50
|
624,50
|
3.
|
Supported early credits JI, Gg CO2 eqv
|
|
256,19
|
256,19
|
256,19
|
256,19
|
256,19
|
4.
|
Approved emission reductions JI, Gg CO2 eqv
|
|
1 616,57
|
1 616,57
|
1 616,57
|
1 616,57
|
1 616,57
|
5.
|
Supported emission reductions JI, Gg CO2 eqv
|
|
703,60
|
703,60
|
703,60
|
703,60
|
703,60
|
6.
|
Total correction credits JI, Gg CO2 eqv
|
|
3 200,87
|
3 200,87
|
3 200,87
|
3 200,87
|
3 200,87
|
The correction for compulsory measures (Table 3, p.1.2) affects figures in Table 9 as an increase in emissions for the period 2007 – 2012, and the correction for approved JI projects – as a reduction of the obligations under the Kyoto Protocol. Thus, the corrected projection for GHG emissions is calculated (Table 11):
Table 11. Corrected macroeconomic projections for anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases with accounting compulsory measures and early credits
№
|
Year
|
2007
|
2008
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
2012
|
|
Corrected obligation under the Kyoto Protocol, Gg CO2 eqv.
|
- *
|
124 082
|
124 082
|
124 082
|
124 082
|
124 082
|
1
|
Overall anthropogenic GHG emissions in the country, Gg CO2 eqv.
|
80 136
|
84 306
|
89 382
|
98 269
|
102 275
|
103 827
|
2
|
Overall GHG emissions from sectors not covered by the Scheme, Gg CO2 eqv
|
24 815
|
26 501
|
27 424
|
28 523
|
29 181
|
29 778
|
3
|
Overall GHG emissions from sectors covered by the Scheme, Gg CO2 eqv
|
55 321
|
57 805
|
61 958
|
69 746
|
73 094
|
74 049
|
4
|
Overall emissions of CO2 from sectors, covered by the Scheme, Gg CO2
|
50 744
|
53 021
|
56 814
|
63 928
|
66 936
|
67 834
|
5
|
Free quantity of emission rights, Gg CO2
|
|
39 776
|
34 700
|
25 813
|
21 807
|
20 255
|
* In 2007, the country does not have obligation under the Kyoto Protocol, because the First period of fulfilment of obligations starts in 2008.
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