Европейска схема

Reconciliation of the quantity of emission allowances by sectors

The above “bottom-up” projections by sectors, sub-sectors and total is compared to the macroeconomic projection derived in p.2., and presented in Table 20. At this stage, both the differences in the two projections – bottom-up and top-down, and the difference between the forecast for 2004 (top-down) and the reported data for installations for the same year - should be overcome. In case of difference in data for 2004, a correction of the “top-down” projection is undertaken.

When the differences in the projections for the period 2005-2012 are insignificant, the decision for a compromise projection could be taken at the level of the Inter-ministerial working group and between ministries.

When the differences are considerable and lead to a risk of non-implementation of the commitments under the Kyoto Protocol, a complete and detailed revision of “bottom-up” forecasts and projections of sectors is undertaken. The revision covers an assessment of the estimated production volumes and of the compliance of those volumes with the state policy taken into account in the macroeconomic “top-down” forecast. The branch organizations are also involved in discussions on the revision.

As a result of the activities mentioned above, it is expected that a consensus will be reached regarding projected CO₂ emissions by sectors and sub-sectors for the period 2007–2012. Determined projections of emission volumes are presented in a table, which repeats the structure of Table 6 in section 3.1. Compromise volumes of emissions (allowances) are expressed by, where “j” means the specific year, and “g” – a specific sector.