Table 17. Comparison between the macroeconomic projection and the bottom-up projection for registered installations
№
Year
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
1
Overall allowances for registered installations – macroeconomic projection
49 470 560
50 161 260
52 583 634
58 304 621
60 343 473
59 864 886
Overall allowances for registered installations – bottom up projection
50 180 444
54 022 797
55 709 952
61 243 618
64 315 800
63 635 910
2.1
Energy activities, including
2.1.1
Electric power – macroeconomic projection
22 326 044
21 907 164
23 125 522
26 268 762
28 840 447
27 355 107
Electric power – bottom-up projection
19 957 347
23 314 214
24 444 958
28 182 136
31 137 556
31 454 792
2.1.2
Combined production – macroeconomic projection
8 061 028
8 161 776
8 240 503
8 411 681
6 994 499
7 097 189
Combined production – bottom-up projection
8 980 512
9 118 680
9 306 839
9 466 113
9 501 113
8 452 229
2.1.3
Heating power – public sector – macroeconomic projection
828 190
871 531
914 871
958 212
1 001 552
1 044 893
Heating power – public sector – bottom-up projection
660 188
671 668
686 867
695 115
706 538
717 656
2.1.4
Heating for industrial purposes
Production of chemical products and rubber – macroeconomic projection
324 655
340 368
355 702
370 719
385 469
399 989
Production of chemical products and rubber – bottom-up projection
365 140
397 017
397 017
397 017
397 017
397 017
Production of foods and beverages – macroeconomic projection
39 739
41 792
43 872
45 801
47 903
49 909
Production of foods and beverages – bottom-up projection
73 531
77 529
80 617
88 161
91 385
92 433
Production of woods and wood products (except furniture) – macroeconomic projection
92 309
99 905
107 500
115 095
122 691
130 286
Production of woods and wood products (except furniture) – bottom-up projection
84 830
85 803
86 777
87 750
88 724
89 697
Production of textile and textile products (except for apparel) – macroeconomic projection
23 867
25 483
27 098
28 714
30 330
31 945
Production of textile and textile products (except for apparel) – bottom-up projection
27 824
28 837
29 850
30 863
31 876
32 889
Production and casting of non-ferrous metals – macroeconomic projection
129 870
132 863
135 629
138 204
140 617
142 888
Production and casting of non-ferrous metals – bottom-up projection
187 925
174 098
178 985
184 139
187 363
190 902
Production of machines, equipment and household appliances – macroeconomic projection
28 835
29 836
30 773
31 657
32 493
33 289
№
Year
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Production of machines, equipment and household appliances – bottom-up projection
47 007
94 377
96 613
98 128
99 529
100 958
Health protection and social activities – macroeconomic projection
3 765
3 962
4 159
4 356
4 553
4 750
Health protection and social activities – bottom-up projection
3 684
4 094
4 094
4 094
4 094
4 094
Agriculture and hunting and related to them services – macroeconomic projection
7 185
7 561
7 937
8 313
8 689
9 065
Agriculture and hunting and related to them services – bottom-up projection
9 791
10 312
10 599
10 599
10 599
10 599
Distribution of natural gas – macroeconomic projection
182 488
182 488
182 488
182 488
182 488
182 488
Distribution of natural gas – bottom-up projection
181 094
181 094
181 094
181 094
181 094
181 094
3.
Refineries – macroeconomic projection
6 752 931
7 158 107
7 587 593
8 042 849
8 525 420
9 036 945
Refineries – bottom-up projection
7 410 007
7 418 019
7 426 031
7 434 043
7 442 055
7 442 055
4.
Cement– macroeconomic projection
4 236 386
4 559 839
4 980 585
6 721 709
6 919 724
7 117 740
Cement – bottom-up projection
4 395 057
4 520 494
4 743 225
6 286 333
6 286 333
6 286 333
5.
Lime – macroeconomic projection
562 869
593 746
615 529
637 312
659 094
680 877
Lime – bottom-up projection
554 321
594 884
602 879
619 977
620 365
621 012
6.
Cellulose and paper – macroeconomic projection
375 463
412 976
480 258
509 054
537 076
562 773
Cellulose and paper – bottom-up projection
305 711
320 015
363 226
368 699
373 772
376 119
7.
Glass – macroeconomic projection
354 053
357 450
361 257
364 733
367 930
369 065
Glass – bottom-up projection
440 180
439 369
439 369
439 369
439 369
440 225
8.
Ceramics – macroeconomic projection
154 328
157 212
160 342
162 805
165 106
167 268
Ceramics – bottom-up projection
236 221
240 901
258 695
265 887
269 799
275 603
9.
Ferrous metallurgy – macroeconomic projection
4 986 555
5 117 201
5 222 016
5 302 157
5 377 393
5 448 420
Ferrous metallurgy – bottom-up projection
6 260 075
6 331 393
6 372 218
6 404 099
6 447 219
6 470 203
* Note: The two projections for the electric power sector differ considerably because the projection for the installations assumes that the installations will not improve their indicators in the period 2003-2012. The macroeconomic forecast assumes that as a result of the rehabilitation of power capacities, installations’ indicators will improve and specific emissions for the production of kWh electric power will be reduces by some 10 %. For 2007, the difference between the aggregated projected emissions by installations and by macroeconomic forecast exceeds 10%, therefore it is necessary to apply a compromise projection for the emissions in 2007.
Table 18. Compromise projection for CO2 emissions by sectors for 2007, t (allowances)
№
Sector/Year
2007
Energy activities, including
1.
Electric energy
22 326 044
2.
Combined production
8 061 028
3.
Heating power, public sector
744 189
4.
Heating power for industrial purposes
933 379
5.
Refineries
6 752 931
6.
Cement
4 395 057
7.
Lime
554 321
8.
Cellulose and paper
305 711
9.
Glass
397 116
10.
Ceramics
195 275
11.
Ferrous metallurgy
4 986 555
Total
49 651 606
2.2 If the potential, including the technological potential, of activities to reduce emissions was taken into account at this level, please state so here and give details in Section 4.3 below.
The technological potential is not taken into account at this level.
2.3 If Community legislative and policy instruments have been considered in determining separate quantities per activity, please list the instruments considered in Section 5.3 and state which ones have been taken into account and how.
The effects on emissions of carbon dioxide (both in terms of reduction and increase) resulting from the implementation of Directives 2003/96/ЕС, 2002/91/ЕС, 2001/77/ЕС, 96/61/ЕС, 2003/17/ЕС, 2001/80/ЕС, 1999/13/ЕС, have been taken into considerationduring the development of the National Allocation Plan. See also section 5.3.
2.4 If the existence of competition from countries or entities outside the Union has been taken into account, please explain how.
Bulgaria’s NAP does not include special measures to assess the competition from countries outside the European Union. The Plan will be co-ordinated with the Commission for Protection of Competition before it is submitted for approval to the Council of Ministers.
