“Bottom-up” projections for emissions of registered installations by sectors
The allocation of the determined overall volumes of emissions to participants in the scheme is based both on projected emissions as developed in p.2.3 using the “top-down” approach applied to calculate projected emissions, and the “bottom-up” approach from the installations. The “bottom-up” projection is based on development forecasts carried out by the operators of the installations. They are collected through the questionnaires and are part of the registration of each installation.
The sectors defined are the same as in p. 2.3.1. Based on data received from operators of installations, the overall emissions by sectors and sub-sectors are determined – total seven sectors and four sub-sectors for each year j of the period. In this case, sub-sectors are treated as sectors.
For a sector “g”:
 ,
where  - projected emissions from a sector “g” for a year “j” – approach “bottom-up”
 - projected emissions from an installation “i” of a sector “g” for a year “j” – approach “bottom-up”
Total for participants in the Scheme for year “j” using the “bottom-up” approach:
 , where  – projected emission for one year “j” – “bottom-up” approach
Thus, projections for emissions are calculated for each sector (sub-sector) and overall emissions of all sectors – functioning installations (Table 12), known new entrants (Table 13), sleeping installations (Table 14) and known new cogeneration (Table 15) – “bottom-up”
Table 12. Projected CO2 emissions by sectors (bottom-up), kt – functioning installations
Year
|
2007
|
2008
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
2012
|
Overall CO2 emissions from installations covered by the Scheme, Gg CO2
|
48 370,40
|
52 330,52
|
54 128,25
|
55 789,17
|
56 208,07
|
55 861,47
|
Energy activities, including
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
-electric power
|
19 957,35
|
23 822,18
|
25 347,53
|
26 824,33
|
27 129,13
|
27 765,81
|
-combined production of heat and electric power
|
8 751,07
|
8 682,87
|
8 871,03
|
8 964,31
|
8 999,31
|
7 962,76
|
-heating – public sector
|
660,19
|
671,67
|
686,87
|
695,12
|
706,54
|
717,66
|
-heating for industrial purposes and other CP, incl.:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Production of chemical products and rubber
|
365,14
|
397,02
|
397,02
|
397,02
|
397,02
|
397,02
|
Production of food and beverages
|
72,71
|
76,51
|
79,37
|
86,82
|
89,78
|
90,65
|
Production of wood material and wood articles thereof (except for wooden furniture)
|
84,83
|
85,80
|
86,78
|
87,75
|
88,72
|
89,70
|
Production of textile and textile articles (except for apparel)
|
27,82
|
28,84
|
29,85
|
30,86
|
31,88
|
32,89
|
Production and casting of non-ferrous metals
|
187,92
|
174,10
|
178,99
|
184,14
|
187,36
|
190,90
|
Production of machines, equipment and household appliances
|
47,01
|
94,38
|
96,61
|
98,13
|
99,53
|
100,96
|
Healthcare and social activities
|
3,68
|
4,09
|
4,09
|
4,09
|
4,09
|
4,09
|
Agriculture, hunting and related services
|
9,79
|
10,31
|
10,60
|
10,60
|
10,60
|
10,60
|
Distribution of natural gas
|
181,09
|
181,09
|
181,09
|
181,09
|
181,09
|
181,09
|
Refineries and oil products
|
7 410,01
|
7 418,02
|
7 426,03
|
7 434,04
|
7 442,06
|
7 442,06
|
Cement production
|
3 309,55
|
3 309,55
|
3 309,55
|
3 309,55
|
3 309,55
|
3 309,55
|
Lime production
|
338,06
|
369,53
|
377,53
|
394,62
|
395,01
|
395,66
|
Cellulose and paper production
|
213,35
|
215,84
|
217,47
|
219,84
|
222,59
|
224,94
|
Glass production
|
300,41
|
300,41
|
300,41
|
300,41
|
300,41
|
303,10
|
Ceramics production
|
228,53
|
233,21
|
250,52
|
257,72
|
261,63
|
267,43
|
Ferrous metallurgy
|
6 221,87
|
6 255,10
|
6 276,91
|
6 308,72
|
6 351,77
|
6 374,61
|
Table 13. Projected CO2 emissions by sectors (bottom-up) – known new entrants, kt
Year
|
2007
|
2008
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
2012
|
Ceramics production
|
2,03
|
2,03
|
2,51
|
2,51
|
2,51
|
2,51
|
Glass production
|
121,22
|
120,41
|
120,41
|
120,41
|
120,41
|
118,58
|
Cement production
|
373,02
|
373,02
|
435,19
|
2 389,74
|
2 389,74
|
2 389,74
|
Ferrous metallurgy
|
37,88
|
75,76
|
94,70
|
94,70
|
94,70
|
94,70
|
Electric power
|
0,00
|
0,00
|
0,00
|
2 669,67
|
5 420,23
|
5 420,23
|
Table 14. Projected CO2 emissions by sectors (bottom-up) – sleeping installations, kt
Year
|
2007
|
2008
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
2012
|
Lime production
|
216,26
|
225,35
|
225,35
|
225,35
|
225,35
|
225,35
|
Ceramics production
|
5,66
|
5,66
|
5,66
|
5,66
|
5,66
|
5,66
|
Glass production
|
18,55
|
18,55
|
18,55
|
18,55
|
18,55
|
18,55
|
Cellulose and paper production
|
92,36
|
104,17
|
145,76
|
148,86
|
151,18
|
151,18
|
Cement production
|
712,48
|
837,92
|
998,48
|
587,05
|
587,05
|
587,05
|
-heating for industrial purposes and other CP, production of food and beverages
|
0,82
|
1,02
|
1,25
|
1,34
|
1,60
|
1,78
|
Electric power
|
2 591,39
|
2 591,39
|
1 969,46
|
2 498,19
|
2 498,19
|
2 498,19
|
Combined production of heating and electric power
|
23,55
|
154,02
|
154,02
|
154,02
|
154,02
|
154,02
|
Ferrous metallurgy
|
0,33
|
0,54
|
0,61
|
0,68
|
0,75
|
0,89
|
Table 15. Projected CO2 emissions by sectors (bottom-up) – known new cogeneration installations, kt
Year
|
2007
|
2008
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
2012
|
Cogeneration
|
205,89
|
281,79
|
281,79
|
347,79
|
347,79
|
335,448
|
The sum of all projections for the emissions of participating installations, known new entrants, sleeping installations and known new cogenerations represents the projected CO2 emissions by sectors (“bottom-up”) and is shown on Table 16.
Table 16. Projected CO2 emissions by sectors (bottom-up) - kt
|
2007
|
2008
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
2012
|
Overall CO2 emissions from installations registered in the Scheme, Gg CO2
|
50 180,44
|
54 530,76
|
56 612,53
|
62 555,48
|
65 727,60
|
65 367,16
|
Energy activities, including
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
-electric power
|
19 957,35
|
23 822,18
|
25 347,53
|
29 493,99
|
32 549,36
|
33 186,04
|
-combined production of heat and electric power
|
8 980,51
|
9 118,68
|
9 306,84
|
9 466,11
|
9 501,11
|
8 452,23
|
-heating – public sector
|
660,19
|
671,67
|
686,87
|
695,12
|
706,54
|
717,66
|
-heating for industrial purposes and other CP, incl.:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Production of chemical products and rubber
|
365,14
|
397,02
|
397,02
|
397,02
|
397,02
|
397,02
|
Production of food and beverages
|
73,53
|
77,53
|
80,62
|
88,16
|
91,38
|
92,43
|
Production of wood material and wood articles thereof (except for wooden furniture)
|
84,83
|
85,80
|
86,78
|
87,75
|
88,72
|
89,70
|
Production of textile and textile articles (except for apparel)
|
27,82
|
28,84
|
29,85
|
30,86
|
31,88
|
32,89
|
Production and casting of non-ferrous metals
|
187,92
|
174,10
|
178,99
|
184,14
|
187,36
|
190,90
|
Production of machines, equipment and household appliances
|
47,01
|
94,38
|
96,61
|
98,13
|
99,53
|
100,96
|
Healthcare and social activities
|
3,68
|
4,09
|
4,09
|
4,09
|
4,09
|
4,09
|
Agriculture, hunting and related services
|
9,79
|
10,31
|
10,60
|
10,60
|
10,60
|
10,60
|
Distribution of natural gas
|
181,09
|
181,09
|
181,09
|
181,09
|
181,09
|
181,09
|
Refineries and oil products
|
7 410,01
|
7 418,02
|
7 426,03
|
7 434,04
|
7 442,06
|
7 442,06
|
Cement production
|
4 395,06
|
4 520,49
|
4 743,22
|
6 286,33
|
6 286,33
|
6 286,33
|
Lime production
|
554,32
|
594,88
|
602,88
|
619,98
|
620,37
|
621,01
|
Cellulose and paper production
|
305,71
|
320,01
|
363,23
|
368,70
|
373,77
|
376,12
|
Glass production
|
440,18
|
439,37
|
439,37
|
439,37
|
439,37
|
440,22
|
Ceramics production
|
236,22
|
240,90
|
258,69
|
265,89
|
269,80
|
275,60
|
Ferrous metallurgy
|
6 260,08
|
6 331,39
|
6 372,22
|
6 404,10
|
6 447,22
|
6 470,20
|
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