Project scenario
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Emissions during construction and operation of the project activity
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CO2
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No
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Minor emission source
|
CH4
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No
|
Minor emission source
|
N2O
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No
|
Minor emission source
|
B.4.Establishment and description of baseline scenario
The baseline scenario is identified according to the “Baseline Methodology Procedure” of ACM0002 ver.15 (page 10). The project activity is installation of a new grid-connected wind farm with 16 turbines and is not modification/retrofit of an existing grid-connected power plant. So, first identification of this procedure is selected for proposed project activity, which is described as:
“Electricity delivered to the grid by the project activity would have otherwise been generated by the operation of grid-connected power plants and by the addition of new generation sources, as reflected in the combined margin (CM) calculations described in the “Tool to calculate the emission factor for an electricity system”(v.4).
To describe the baseline and its development for the project activity, long-term electricity demand and supply projections for Turkey are assessed.
Demand for electricity in Turkey is growing rapidly with average 6.27%18 for previous ten years. TEİAŞ, who is responsible from the grid reliability has prepared an electricity demand projection for next ten years period (2013-2022) for Turkey and announced on November 2013, given in Table 6 and Figure 4Error: Reference source not found, reflecting the continuation of current demand growth19.
Table : Low and High Demand Projection Scenarios for Ten Years Period (TWh)
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