Our forecast of total opex includes an allowance to account for efficient changes in opex over time.
There are several reasons why forecast opex that reflects the opex criteria might differ from expenditure in the base year.
As set out in the Expenditure Forecast Assessment Guideline (the Guideline), we have developed an opex forecast incorporating the rate of change to account for:59
price growth
output growth
productivity growth.
This appendix contains our assessment of the opex rate of change for use in developing our estimate of total opex.
-
We have applied the same rate of change methodology to derive our alternative estimate of opex as we used in our preliminary decision. We do not agree with SA Power Networks' criticisms of our rate of change forecasting methodology. We consider our rate of change forecasting methodology for the 2015–20 regulatory control period leads to a forecast rate of change in opex an efficient service provider would require to meet the opex objectives.
We have updated our estimate of the rate of change in opex to reflect the most recent forecasts of labour price growth in the South Australian utilities industry from Deloitte Access Economics (DAE) and BIS Shrapnel. The net impact of these changes results in an annual rate of change that is on average 0.36 per cent higher than our preliminary decision estimate.
Our average annual estimated rate of change for the 2015–20 regulatory control period is 1.15 per cent (see table B.1).
Table B. SA Power Networks and AER rate of change (per cent real)60
|
2015–16
|
2016–17
|
2017–18
|
2018–19
|
2019–20
|
SA Power Networks revised proposal
|
|
|
|
|
Price growth
|
1.21
|
1.21
|
1.44
|
1.50
|
1.58
|
Output growth
|
1.05
|
0.96
|
0.94
|
1.02
|
0.92
|
Productivity growth
|
–
|
–
|
–
|
–
|
–
|
Overall rate of change
|
2.28
|
2.18
|
2.40
|
2.54
|
2.51
|
AER
|
|
|
|
|
|
Price growth
|
0.31
|
0.28
|
0.62
|
0.78
|
0.90
|
Output growth
|
0.57
|
0.57
|
0.57
|
0.57
|
0.57
|
Productivity growth
|
–
|
–
|
–
|
–
|
–
|
Overall rate of change
|
0.88
|
0.85
|
1.19
|
1.35
|
1.47
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Overall difference
|
1.40
|
1.33
|
1.20
|
1.19
|
1.04
|
Source: AER analysis.
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