Hackers on Planet Earth (hope) 6 Robert David Steele



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Searching for Bin Laden: The Use of Intelligence in the War on Terror or How NOT to Spend the Taxpayers’ Treasure

  • Hackers on Planet Earth (HOPE) 6

  • Robert David Steele

  • Updated 20 July 2006


This Briefing is Online

  • This briefing is online, at: http://www.oss.net/WAC

  • It should also be on your website locally.

  • Planned words are visible in Notes format.

  • Other key references online include:

  • http://www.oss.net/BASIC

  • http://www.oss.net/TERMS

  • http://www.oss.net/IO

  • http://www.oss.net/REFLECTIONS











Plan for the Brief

  • Focused only on National Security Budget

  • Initial Focus on $60B/Year Spent by IC

  • Then Focus on $600B/Year Spent by DoD

  • Review Books on Threats and Strategy

  • Discuss Needed Reforms in America

  • Conclude with Hope for the Future



National Security Writ Small

  • Department of Defense - $600B/Year

    • Buys heavy metal military ill-suited to reality
  • Department of State –

    • Buys Embassy fortresses and little else
  • Department of Justice –

    • Buys heavy-handed ill-focused FBI & suits
  • Department of Homeland Security –

    • Buys ill-directed hand-outs and little security


National Security Writ Large

  • Nurture and use all sources of power

  • Educated and engaged citizenry

  • Competent intelligence

    • Universal coverage (all countries & topics)
    • 24/7 (real time versus one-year “studies”)
    • All languages
  • Morally sound diplomacy not ideological

  • Morally sound capitalism not predatory

  • Balanced defense (four threat types)

  • Coherent homeland security (engaged citizenry)

  • Balanced budget, don’t import poverty, export jobs



Global Intelligence Failure Breakdown in Collection and Understanding



Global Processing Failure Breakdown in Exploitation, Dissemination



Threats vs. Sources





Baseball Analogy Harnessing the Power of the Crowd



ADDNI/OS & OSS CEO



New Craft of Intelligence



Focus of Global Effort



Creating the World Brain: Web-Based Virtual Intelligence Teams



Real vs. False Budget



Policy-Intelligence Failure: Unbalanced Instruments of Power

  • Too much of:

  • Military heavy metal

  • Secret satellites

  • Not enough of:

  • Humans on ground

  • Human expert analysis

  • Technical processing

  • State & local intelligence

  • Public health, water, etc.



Conflict Facts for 2002 23 LIC+, 79 LIC-, 175 VPC





Water & War



Global Threats to Local Survival





Presidential Trade-Offs $100 million will buy:



$1 T/Yr Not Being Leveraged

  • Between interest on the debt, unnecessary military systems, unnecessary secret satellites, and a wide variety of subsidies and tax loopholes, we waste $500B/Year.

  • For lack of good economic intelligence and counterintelligence, and ethics at the top, we forego $500B a year in corporate tax contributions to revenue, import-export pricing and insurance fraud, and lost revenues from bandwidth and federally-controlled properties.



Policy-Intelligence Failure Public is Neither Engaged Nor Informed

  • Why This Matters

  • Homeland security--”A Nation’s best defense is an educated citizenry.” (Thomas Jefferson)

  • Prosperity--the financial value of ethics, trust, strategic culture

  • Global security--the long-term value of public intelligence to multi-cultural policy initiatives, the best pre-emption is moral.



Pelton on Ground Truth

  • Most government and media sources have not actually had eyes on target and boots in the local mud

  • You don’t have to travel to these places to have them affect home front security

  • We simply are not grasping essential ground truths



Shawcross on Endless Conflict

  • Peace operations are as complex and difficult as war operations

  • Humanitarian assistance can create black markets and sustain a conflict

  • Good will without strength makes things worse



Kaplan on Frontier of Anarchy

  • History, geography, and traveling third class are vital to true understanding

  • We are engaged in "a protracted struggle between ourselves and the demons of crime, population pressure, environmental degradation, disease, and culture conflict."



Heidenrich on Genocide

  • 15-18 genocides going on today--scores more over time

  • Genocide can be forecast and can be prevented

  • Indifference is murder

  • Global force needed



Klare on Resource Wars

  • Energy, Water, Timber, and Minerals will be at the heart of future war

  • Ethnic conflict and great power disconnects will compound the challenge

  • In this light, corporations are now belligerents and must be treated as such



de Villiers on Water

  • It is the average person, not the corporation, that does the most damage

  • Pollution, dams, irrigation, and acquifer mining are all destroying our environment

  • We need a national and global water conservation and replenishment strategy.



Helvarg on Oceans

  • Oceans more important than Amazon, should be protected

  • Western economic interests are treating oceans as private mines and private cesspools

  • Information available from NOAA and UN is not reaching public domain and could help citizen action



Thornton on Industrialized Poison

  • Need new paradigm for controlling bio-chemical threats to society, one focused on probability of risk instead of permission to kill pending proven risk

  • “Good science” is code for value-free policy that risks citizens’ long-term health for short-term corporate profit



Garrett on Globalized Disease

  • Health of our Nation depends on health of other nations

  • Insurance and doctors have helped kill public health (prevention) in favor of hospitals and antibiotics

  • We have created resistant forms of disease and may not be able to contain epidemics



Gray on Modern Strategy

  • Technology is not a substitute for strategy

  • War is about getting your way, not about combat

  • Time matters--use or lose

  • Over time strategic culture is more important than arms or money.



Brzezinski on Grand Strategy

  • Europe, Russia, and Eurasian “stans” are the hearth of 21st century opportunity and threat

  • Core new players are Turkey and Indonesia

  • Iran is more stable, and China less of a threat, that conventional wisdom says

  • Geopolitics more important than technology



Kupchan on Failure of Empire

  • Strategic cultures resist incoming information and suffer from “adjustment failure”

  • Foreign internal instability merits rapid intervention with strong economic incentives

  • Failure to intervene early will lead to emergence of aggressors that are difficult to defeat once out of the box.



Shultz et al on Complexity

  • “Most policymakers do not fully realize the dynamics of the world we live in.” (Graham Fuller)

  • History and culture are vital to security policy

  • Non-military operations are as important as military operations at all times



Cimbala on Friction

  • Friction is real and is destroying our ability to match ends with means

  • We don’t have a strategy; we don’t try to understand the strategies of others; we do not have unity of effort across the diplomatic-defense-justice continuum



Revolutions Not Technical

  • Concepts, not technology, are revolutionary

  • Best revolutions are actually incremental and simple

  • Technology is not a substitute for strategy

  • Current & planned arsenal distantly related to real needs



O’Hanlon on Aid Spending

  • We spend half as much on aid as do most of the other developed countries

  • Foreign aid in its current form is not preventing conflicts

  • Best investment world-wide is in education of women, this cascades across issue areas



Oakley on Police Peace Operations

  • Failed states present us with a global problem that requires an international law enforcement reserve

  • UN police often cannot read or drive a car and do not have doctrine

  • Constabulary forces are different from small war forces



Bowden on Manhunts

  • Timing is everything--we let the thugs amass billions before we go after them

  • We are weak in tactical intelligence against non-traditional (e.g. individual) targets, especially in cities

  • It can be done--but is almost impossible to do well if host state is in chaos



Warfare in the Third World

  • Subjective factors including pain threshhold determinant

  • Training absorption much more important that arms supplies

  • Third World combat is both unconventional and never ending…



Third World War

  • Spreading insecurity is directly related to protracted conflict among societal groups

  • Incompetent interventions make matters much worse

  • Violence can be predicted

  • Once begun, the violent will not listen to reason...



Clark on Modern War

  • White House does not listen to early warning

  • Army doesn’t do mountains, tries not to use Apaches etc.

  • Air Force doesn’t do strategic mobility, needs 24 hours to redirect TACAIR

  • Technology loses to weather, lacks intelligence



Smart Holistic Strategy

  • End state must be legitimate governments everywhere

  • Ultimate investment is educational, both at home and abroad

  • Must do inter-agency holistic planning, apply all the instruments of national power all the time



The Tunnels of Cu Chi

  • Never underestimate the enemy





New Strategy: 1 + iii: Need better balance





Modern Strategic Governance



Governance Reform

  • Coalition Cabinet

  • Balanced Open Budget

  • Quality Education

  • Public Health

  • Ethics

  • 7th Generation Issues

    • Water
    • Energy
    • Information/Education


Electoral Reform

  • Voting on week-ends

  • League of Women Voters & Debates

  • Cabinet Choices in Advance & in Debates

  • Instant Run-Off

  • End Gerrymandering

  • End Corporate Funding



Let’s Get Our Priorities Straight!

  • Third, have a strategy to empower the poor, create wealth, and sustain peace & Earth.



A Strong America Through Common Sense

  • We must honor our values and stop supporting dictators.

  • We must serve the interests of the people rather than corporations.

  • We must have balanced national security capabilities.

  • We must be fiscally sound.



Questions?



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