Locally Nuanced Actionable Intelligence
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| The U.S. Army's 83rd Civil Affairs Battalion is our innovation partner in a project to accomplish this. The core strategy is fast iteration between information-gathering, analysis, and action through all phases of the operation – planning, implementation, and assessment. Our goal is to develop a simple, low-cost methodology and training program for local civil-military operations conducted by nonspecialist conventional forces.
That goal is fairly concrete and specific. It is also a rare opportunity to develop and test a Theory of Change for the largely unexplained phenomenon of bottom-up military innovation: …a consensus (if tacit) definition of military innovation… has three components. First, an innovation changes the manner in which military formations function in the field… Second, an innovation is significant in scope and impact… Third, innovation is tacitly equated with greater military effectiveness. … all of the major models of military innovation operate from the top down… the senior officers and/or civilians are the agents of innovation... … there is an entire class of bottom-up innovations that have yet to be explored, understood, and explained… This is the major challenge, and opportunity, for future military innovation studies. Grissom 2006: 907, 920, 930) Addressing the need for improved understanding of the operational environment is the goal of the Theory of Change. The Agile methodology, our innovation partners, and feedback received through engaging a community of interest has matured this concept from the "bottom-up." The ultimate goal is to promulgate the use of operational qualitative analysis throughout the intelligence communities and military force structure as a viable means to enhancing situational awareness rapidly, accurately, and collaboratively. References Ackerman, Gary, P. Abhayaratne, J. Bale, A. Bhattacharjee, C. Blair, L. Hansell, A. Jayne, M. Kosal, S. Lucas, K. Moran, L. Seroki, S. Vadlamudi (January 4, 2007) "Assessing terrorist motivations for attacking critical infrastructure." Livermore, CA: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory https://e-reports-ext.llnl.gov/pdf/341566.pdf Ane, Bernadetta Kwintiana (2011) "Tutorial on INTEGRATED WEB- AND AGENT-BASED COMPUTER SUPPORTED COLLABORATIVE DESIGN," The Fourth International Conference on Advances in Computer-Humans Interaction, Gosier, Guadeloupe, France - February 23, 2011 http://www.iaria.org/conferences2011/filesACHI11/ACHI_2011_Tutorial_Web_and_Agent_based_CSCD.pdf Army FM 2-91.6 Headquarters, Department of the Army (2007) Soldier Surveillance and Reconnaissance: Fundamentals of Tactical Information Collection http://www.fas.org/irp/doddir/army/fm2-91-6.pdf Army FM 2-22.3 (FM 34-52) Headquarters, Department of the Army (2006) Human Intelligence Collector Operations http://www.fas.org/irp/doddir/army/fm2-22-3.pdf Bennett, Andrew and Jeffrey T. Checkel (June 2012) “Process Tracing: From Philosophical Roots to Best Practices,” Simons Papers in Security and Development No. 21/2012, forthcoming in Process Tracing in the. Social Sciences: From Metaphor to Analytic Tool, ed. by Andrew Bennett and Jeffrey T. Checkel http://www.sfu.ca/content/dam/sfu/internationalstudies/documents/swp/WP21.pdf Blomberg, Aleksander (2012) "The Lean Startup Approach–and its applicability outside Silicon Valley" http://studenttheses.cbs.dk/xmlui/bitstream/handle/10417/3434/aleksander_blomberg.pdf?sequence=1 Cabral, Luís M B (June 2005) "The Economics of Trust and Reputation: A Primer" http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~lcabral/reputation/Reputation_June05.pdf Carlson, Anthony E. (2011) "Forging Alliances at Yargul Village: A Lieutenant’s Struggle to Improve Security," ch. 4 in Vanguard of Valor: Small Unit Actions in Afghanistan, ed. by Donald P. Wright http://usacac.army.mil/cac2/cgsc/carl/download/csipubs/VanguardOfValor.pdf Clapper, James (10/6/2010) "Remarks and Q & A by Director of National Intelligence Mr. James Clapper" https://www.fas.org/irp/news/2010/10/dni100610.pdf Collier, David (October 2011) “Understanding Process Tracing.” PS: Political Science and Politics 44:4, 823–30 http://www.ukcds.org.uk/sites/default/files/uploads/Understanding-Process-Tracing.pdf Cone, GEN Robert W. and CPT John D. Mohundro (Oct-Dec 2013) "Capstone: Strategic Landpower for the Company Commander," Infantry 102:4, 4-6 http://www.benning.army.mil/infantry/magazine/issues/2013/Oct-Dec/pdfs/OCT-DEC13.pdf Connable, Ben (2012) Embracing the Fog of War: Assessment and Metrics in Counterinsurgency. RAND http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monographs/2012/RAND_MG1086.pdf Davis, Paul K. and Kim Cragin (2009) "Summary," in Social Science for Counterterrorism: Putting the Pieces Together, ed. by Paul K. Davis, and Kim Cragin, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation. xvii – li http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG849.html Davis, Paul K. (2011) "Primer for Building Factor Trees to Represent Social-Science Knowledge,” in Proceedings of the 2011 Winter Simulation Conference, ed. by S. Jain, R.R. Creasey, J. Himmelspach, K.P. White, and M. Fu http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.416.2076&rep=rep1&type=pdf Davis, Paul K. (2009) "Representing Social-Science Knowledge Analytically," ch. 11 in Social Science for Counterterrorism: Putting the Pieces Together, ed. by Paul K. Davis and Kim Cragin. Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation. 401-452 http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG849.html Derbentseva, Natalia et al. (December 2010) “Issues in Intelligence Production: Summary of interviews with Canadian managers of intelligence analysts,” Defence R&D Canada – Toronto. Technical Report TR 2010-144 http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a551144.pdf Derleth, James W., and Jason S. Alexander (June 2011) “Stability Operations: From Policy to Practice,” Prisim 2:3, 125-136 http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a571229.pdf Dungan, Peter, and Cathal Heavey (2010) "Proposed visual wiki system for gathering knowledge about discrete event systems." Proceedings of the Winter Simulation Conference. Winter Simulation Conference, 2010. http://www.informs-sim.org/wsc10papers/046.pdf Eckert, Claudia and Joshua D. Summers (08/04/2013) "Design Research Methods: Interviewing" http://www.clemson.edu/ces/cedar/images/e/e2/2013-08-04-InterviewWorkshop.pdf Eisenhardt, Kathleen M. (1989) "Building theories from case study research," Academy of Management Review 14:4, 532-550. http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/mgt/research/acrew/eisenhardt.pdf Flick, Uwe (2007) "Editorial introduction," in Graham Gibbs (2007) Analysing Qualitative Data http://books.google.com/books?id=EfAX3YYkrdcC&printsec=frontcover#v=onepage&q&f=false Flynn, Major General Michael T., Captain Matt Pottinger, and Paul D. Batchelor (2010) “Fixing Intel: A Blueprint for Making Voices Intelligence Relevant in Afghanistan,” Center for a New American Security Washington DC http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA511613 Gallagher, Michael (June 5, 2011) "Human Intelligence in Counterinsurgency: Persistent Pathologies in the Collector-Consumer Relationship," Small Wars Journal http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA544850 Gibbs, Graham R. (2007) Analysing Qualitative Data. SAGE Publications http://books.google.com/books?id=EfAX3YYkrdcC&printsec=frontcover#v=onepage&q&f=false Grissom, Adam (2006) "The future of military innovation studies." The Journal of Strategic Studies 29:5, 905-934. http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01402390600901067 Greene, Joshua (2013) Moral Tribes: Emotion, Reason, and the Gap Between Us and Them. New York: Penguin Books. https://books.google.com/books?id=tWH2zJpEk2QC&printsec=frontcover#v=onepage&q&f=false Heuer, Richards J., Jr. and Randolph H. Pherson (2011) Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis http://books.google.com/books?id=Js1w15Q7X4gC&printsec=frontcover#v=onepage&q&f=false Hulnick, A. S. (2008) "Intelligence Reform 2008: Where to from Here?," International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence, 21:4, 621-634. http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/08850600802254517 Humphreys, Macartan, and Alan Jacobs (2013) "Mixing Methods: A Bayesian Unification of Qualitative and Quantitative Approaches" http://www.columbia.edu/~mh2245/papers1/BIQQ.pdf Jonassen, David H. (1997) "Instructional design models for well-structured and III-structured problem-solving learning outcomes." Educational Technology Research and Development 45:1, 65-94. http://socrates.usfca.edu/xapedoe/psych13/page1/page21/assets/Jonassen_1997.pdf Kilcullen, David (2010) Counterinsurgency. Oxford University Press http://books.google.com/books?id=A8amtX_z1WkC&printsec=frontcover#v=onepage&q&f=false Kolton, CPT Michael (Oct-Dec 2013) "An Ambush in Shigal District: Tactics and Tribal Dynamics in Kunar Province," Infantry 102:4, 26-35 http://www.benning.army.mil/infantry/magazine/issues/2013/Oct-Dec/pdfs/OCT-DEC13.pdf Langley, Ann (2009) “Studying Processes in and around Organizations,” ch. 24 in The SAGE Handbook of Organizational Research Methods, ed. By David A. Buchanan and Alan Bryman. SAGE Publications http://books.google.com/books?id=cHGtc4DDoy4C&printsec=frontcover#v=onepage&q&f=false L’Etoile, Joseph A. (2011) "Transforming the Conflict in Afghanistan," PRISM 2:4, 3-16 http://www.relooney.info/GP3200/Prisim_12.pdf MacLeod, W. Bentley (September 2007) "Reputations, Relationships, and Contract Enforcement," Journal of Economic Literature 45, 595-628 http://www.jstor.org/stable/27646841 2006 version at http://www.iza.org/conference_files/IER2006/macleod_w1495.pdf Mahoney, James (2012) "The Logic of Process Tracing Tests in the Social Sciences," Sociological Methods & Research 20(10) 1–28 http://dingo.sbs.arizona.edu/~ggoertz/pol682qm/mahoney2012.pdf Marchionini, Gary (2006) “Exploratory search: from finding to understanding,” Communications of the ACM 49:4, 41-46 http://www.stlab.istc.cnr.it/documents/papers/aemoo/06%20-%20Marchionini%20-%202006%20-%20Exploratory%20Search-%20From%20Finding%20To%20Understanding.pdf Maxwell, Joseph A. (2004) "Using Qualitative Methods for Causal Explanation," Field Methods 16:3, 243-264 http://cc.scu.edu.cn/G2S/eWebEditor/uploadfile/20121216102809348.pdf McVay, Mary and Alexandra Snelgrove (2007) "Program Design for Value Chain Initiatives," a toolkit in the series Information to Action: A Toolkit Series for Market Development Practitioners, Linda Jones, Editor, Ben Fowler, Co-Editor. Mennonite Economic Development Associates (MEDA) http://www.meda.org/docman/meda-publications/general/value-chain/63-program-design-for-value-chain-initiatives-information-to-action-a-toolkit-series-for-market-development-practitioners/file Miehlbradt, Alexandra and Linda Jones (Dec 2007) "Market Research for Value Chain Initiatives," a toolkit in the series Information to Action: A Toolkit Series for Market Development Practitioners, Linda Jones, Editor, Ben Fowler, Co-Editor. Mennonite Economic Development Associates (MEDA) http://www.meda.org/docman/meda-publications/general-technical/value-chain/59-market-research-for-value-chain-initiatives-information-to-action-a-toolkit-series-for-market-development-practitioners/file Miles, Matthew B., A. Michael Huberman, and Johnny Saldaña (2013) Qualitative data analysis: A methods sourcebook. SAGE Publications http://books.google.com/books?id=3CNrUbTu6CsC&printsec=frontcover#v=onepage&q&f=false Ojiako, Udechukwu, Johnnie Johnson, Maxwell Chipulu, and Alasdair Marshall (2010) "Unconventional competition – drawing lessons from the military," Prometheus: Critical Studies in Innovation 28:4, 327-342 http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/08109028.2010.541756 Petit, Lt. Col. Brian, U.S. Army (May-June 2011) “The Fight for the Village: Southern Afghanistan, 2010,” Military Review 91:3, 25-32 http://usacac.army.mil/CAC2/MilitaryReview/Archives/English/MilitaryReview_20110630_art007.pdf Portillo-Rodríguez, Javier, Aurora Vizcaíno, Mario Piattini, and Sarah Beecham (2012) "Tools used in Global Software Engineering: A systematic mapping review,." Information and Software Technology 54:7, 663-685. http://www.sis.uta.fi/~tp54752/tospm/summaries2014/RahulArora_97580.rtf RAND. 2009. Understanding Commanders’ Information Needs for Influence Operations http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA510190 Richards, Lyn (2009) Handling qualitative data: A practical guide, 2e.Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage. http://books.google.com/books?id=_bJ4VgrwYXUC&printsec=frontcover#v=onepage&q&f=false Eric Ries Interview (03/23/2009) What is the minimum viable product? http://venturehacks.com/articles/minimum-viable-product Rohlfing, Ingo (2012) Case Studies and Causal Inference: An Integrative Framework http://books.google.com/books?id=7T7R2BCebtEC&printsec=frontcover#v=onepage&q&f=false Rubin, Herbert J. and Irene S. Rubin (2012) Qualitative interviewing: The art of hearing data, 3e http://books.google.com/books?id=T5RDmYuueJAC&printsec=frontcover#v=onepage&q&f=false Spinuzzi, MAJ Marc A. (01/05/2007) “CCIR for Complex and Uncertain Environments” http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA470928 Stern, Elliott, Nicoletta Stame, John Mayne, Kim Forss, Rick Davies, & Barbara Befani (2012). Broadening the range of designs and methods for impact evaluations: Report of a study commissioned by the Department for International Development (DFID) https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/67427/design-method-impact-eval.pdf Swanborn, Peter (2010) Case Study Research: What, Why, and How? SAGE Publications http://books.google.com/books?id=DvyvGmSscQMC&printsec=frontcover#v=onepage&q&f=false Tohn, David W. (2003) "Civilian Reserve Intelligence Program: A Fundamental Requirement for Army Intelligence Transformation." Army Command and General Staff College Fort Leavenworth KS School of Advanced Military Studies http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA483386 Turnley, Jessica Glicken (March 2011) “Cross-Cultural Competence and Small Groups: Why SOF Are the Way SOF Are,” JSOU Report 11-1, Joint Special Operations University http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA541961 Vakkari, Pertti (2010) "Exploratory searching as conceptual exploration." Proceedings of HCIR. 24-27 http://research.microsoft.com/en-us/um/people/ryenw/hcir2010/docs/papers/Vakkari_fp10.pdf White, Howard, and Daniel Phillips (2012). Addressing attribution of cause and effect in 'small n' impact evaluations: towards an integrated framework. London: International Initiative for Impact Evaluation. http://www.mande.co.uk/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/White-Phillips-Small-n-Impact-Evaluation-WP-version.docx 1 Civil Affairs specialists in the active military are a singular exception, comfortable and skilled at fast iteration between information-gathering, analysis, and action for civil-military operations. (The 83rd Civil Affairs battalion has begun work with the authors to adapt qualitative research methods to an operational tempo and purpose; see Section IV.) So, too, are Special Operations Forces: "SOF field collectors are able to immerse themselves within an area and have daily contact with numerous sources. With their analytical skills, they develop a capacity for judgment, and they may be in the best position to comprehend indicators or warnings that likely would not set off the same alarms within the larger intel apparatus." (Boykin and Swanson 2008; cf. Turnley 2011) We have also heard that the intelligence community is beginning to facilitate some interaction between collectors and analysts. 2 Cf. Marchionini's (2006) distinction between "lookup tasks" and "learning searches". 3 Qualitative analysis may start with tentative hypotheses to guide the investigation, but these evolve or are discarded as the evidence comes in. Analysts may even articulate a clear hypothesis that is surely wrong, to help focus an investigation into why it is wrong. 4 It's worth noting that in a bureaucratic setting, one can hardly articulate a full set of alternative competing hypotheses one day, and report the next day that we're looking at this all wrong. In that setting, it is especially important to be aware that premature application of Alternative Competing Hypotheses may create the confirmation bias it aims to eliminate. 5 “Insurgents and terrorists evolve rapidly in response to countermeasures, so that what works once may not work again, and insights that are valid for one area or one period may not apply elsewhere.” (Kilcullen 2010: 2; cf. Ojiako et al. 2010: 336) 6 The boundaries of a specific context, or "case," are not prespecified. They are discovered through investigation. That is because “at the start of the research, it is not yet quite clear … which properties of the context are relevant and should be included in modelling the phenomenon, and which properties should be left out.” (Swanborn 2010: 15; cf. Miles, Huberman, and Saldaña 2013: 28, 100) This analytic step can be considered a filter, with two distinct uses in investigation:
7 Confusingly, the literature also uses the term sufficient clues for confirming evidence (evidence that is sufficient to infer that a theory is true, as it will be observed with probability only if the theory is valid that context) and necessary clues for disconfirming evidence (evidence that is necessary to infer that a theory is true, as it will be observed with some probability if the theory is valid in that context). (Collier 2011, Mahoney 2012, Humphreys and Jacobs 2013) 8 Eckert and Summers (2013) includes a well-designed checklist of the entire process – preparing for interviewing, conducting the interview, and reporting the results. Yüklə 115,33 Kb. Dostları ilə paylaş:
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