Ents Alfred Nzo District Municipality strategic Agenda
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Source: Statistics South Africa (2011 Census and 2016 Community Survey) Table 1.1 Nelson Mandela Bay Metro 11% Sarah Baartman 7% Amathole
14% Alfred Nzo 12% Joe Gqabi 5% O.R. Tambo 1% Distribution of the Eastern Cape population: 2016 Source: Statistics South Africa, 2016 Figure 1.1 Between 2011 and 2016, the population in Mbizana grew by 13.5% and that of Alfred Nzo by 8.3% 14.0% 13.5% 12.0%
10.0% 8.0% 7.7% 6.6%
8.3% 6.0% 4.0%
3.9% 4.2% 2.0% Ntabankulu Umzimvubu Eastern Cape Matatiele Alfred Nzo Mbizana Source: Statistics South Africa, 2016 Figure 1.2 Alfred Nzo Demographic results from the 2016 Community Survey: The population dynamics of a district is of paramount importance in addressing developmental needs in society. The population growth, ageing population, migration and urbanisation present both important developmental challenges and opportunities that have direct and indirect implications for social, economic and environmental development. These dynamics in the population structure affect macro-economic factors such as consumption, production, employment, income distribution and poverty. The changes in the population structure influence universal access to social services such as health, education, sanitation, water, food and energy. Proper planning for population dynamics will therefore ensure that the wellbeing of both the current and the future generation is promoted with the motive of advancing sustainable development. In analyzing the population dynamics it is essential to look at factors such as urbanisation, migration, fertility, mortality, life expectancy as well as the age structure of the population. These factors will give an indication with regard to the estimated number of people who are dependent on government for transfers as well as the number of people who are economically active. These factors also play an essential role in the efficient allocation of resources at all spheres of government. The data used in this section is from the 2016 Community Survey published by Statistics South Africa. The analysis and results of this section could be used by Alfred Nzo and its local municipalities for promoting optimal resource allocation in order to reduce poverty and vulnerability among marginalized people in municipality. The total population in Alfred Nzo district municipality has increased by 8.3% from 801 344 people in 2011 to 867 864 people in 2016
Source: Statistics South Africa (2011 Census and 2016 Community Survey) Table 1.2 The findings from the 2016 community survey are critical for decision- making not only in the public sector but also in the private sector. Population size and characteristics can influence the location of businesses and services to satisfy the needs of the target population. The following lessons are derived from the demographics of Alfred Nzo district municipality: According to Statistics South Africa, Alfred Nzo total population has grown from 801 344 people in 2011 to 867 864 people in 2016 (See Table 1.1). This population of 867 864 people represent 12% of the Eastern Cape total population (See Figure 1.1). Between 2011 and 2016, Alfred Nzo district municipality grew by 8.3% (See Figure 1.1). In 2016, the district has more female (470 658) than male (397 206), however male population has grown faster at 8.4% than their female counterpart at 8.2%. Between 2011 and 2016, the population growth was high in Mbizana at 13.5% and low in Ntabankulu at 3.9%. In Umzimvubu and Ntabankulu, the female population grew by 3.6%. How the population of Alfred Nzo is distributed among the local municipalities (2016 Community Survey) Ntabankulu 15% Matatiele 25% Mbizana 37% Umzimvubu 23%
Source: Statistics South Africa, 2016 Community Survey Figure 1.3 Overall, demographic development outcomes influences other population variables such as migration, settlement, fertility, mortality and morbidity rates. It gives insight into the living standards of the population and an indication of what policy options should be undertaken according to the structure of the socio-economic context. Comparing 2011 population with that of 2016, with the exception of Matatiele, male population has grown faster than their female counterpart (Table 1.3) Growth rate by Gender
Source: Statistics South Africa (2011 Census and 2016 Community Survey) Table 1.3 Sustainable development represents a commitment to advance people’s well-being. It hinges on two factors: consumption and population growth. High fertility rates (which lead to high population growth) burden the economy in terms of consumption. Further to this, the number of children women bear in their lifetime has a significant impact on the level of economic and social development that they can achieve. Generally, in rural district like such as Alfred Nzo, a woman who has a child or several children is bound to remain in the home to take care of them, which reduces her chances of seeking work or education outside of the home. This results in fewer opportunities for personal development on her part, and therefore perpetuates a cycle of poverty. The fertility rate can therefore be considered to be an indicator of the general health status of a population, and a specific indicator of maternal health, as it encompasses health initiatives such as family planning Age pyramid of Alfred Nzo District Municipality The age pyramid of Alfred Nzo district municipality is a combination of both a “Triangular-Shaped Pyramid” at the bottom of the pyramid and a “Rectangular-Shaped Pyramid” in the middle of the pyramid. In general, a population with more young people, will grow more rapidly than a population with a larger percentage of older. This is the case for Alfred Nzo, a district populated largely with very young people. Age pyramid of Alfred Nzo District: 2016 80-84
70-74
60-64
50-54
40-44
80,000 Male Female Source: Statistics South Africa, 2016 Community Survey Figure 1.4 Figure 1.4 shows a triangular-shaped pyramid from the age of zero to the age of 34, a rapid transition from infant to child and from youth to young adult. Thereafter, the age pyramid shifts to a rectangular- shaped from the age of 35 to the age of 70. It changes again to a triangular- shaped at the age 0f 70 and beyond. It is important for Alfred Nzo district municipality to monitor population data, as a rapidly growing population may need to be followed by faster investment in household, health and other essential infrastructure to ensure that a favourable socio-economic environment is maintained. In addition, investigating the dynamics of a population is vital in attaining the precise viewpoint of those who are likely to be affected by any prospective policy, project or development. From demographic dividend to demographic gift: Is this the case for Alfred Nzo? Over time, the age structure of the district's population may change as the population transitions from high to lower fertility and mortality rates. Demographic changes that a society experiences may lead to a window of opportunity or higher economic growth, with a greater supply of labour and lower dependency ratios as the working age population rises in proportion to the number of young and elderly people “Demographic dividend” occurs when the proportion of working people in the total population is high because this indicates that more people have the potential to be productive and contribute to growth of the economy (Look at Figure 1.4 with a combination of a triangular- shaped pyramid and a rectangular-shaped pyramid). Advanced countries of Europe, Japan and USA have an ageing population because of low birth rates and low mortality rates. Neither the least developed countries nor the countries of Africa have as yet experienced favorable demographic conditions according to the research by UN population division. China’s one child policy has reversed the demographic dividend it enjoyed since the mid-1960s according to a World Bank global development report. In Alfred Nzo, we see with both increasing numbers of young people and declining fertility has the potential to reap a demographic dividend. Due to the dividend between young and old, many argue that there is a great potential for economic gains, which has been termed the "demographic gift". In order for economic growth to occur the younger population must have access to quality education, adequate nutrition and health including access to sexual and reproductive health. Population age structure The districts age profile is presented here shows a large juvenile population, with almost 40% of residents being below the age of 15. When read together with the over 65 population, it can be seen that the district potentially has a high dependency ratio. Dependency in this case refers to the proportion of the population that is not able to work, and thus economically dependent on others for its survival. The mid-life cohort of ages 35-64 can be said to be underrepresented as it constitutes fewer than one in every five people. The implication of this is found in a shortage of experienced workforce members that make significant contributions to economic productivity, output and production. It is also in these cohorts that positive and high returns to scale on social and human capital investments such as education and health are felt. The population age structure of an area impacts on development in determining the demand and supply for goods and services. People of difference age groups have different type of needs. For example in Table 1.4, a high proportion of children (0 – 14 years) in Alfred Nzo District Municipality (39.8%) and (39.3%) for the youth aged 15 to 34 years of age would influence development on education and health services. The size of the working age population has important consideration in analyzing the size of the potential labour force. It is evident from the statistics that urban areas had a higher proportion of working age persons to the total population than rural areas. Yüklə 13,47 Mb. Dostları ilə paylaş:
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