Ethnic Federalism in a Dominant Party State: The Ethiopian Experience 1991-2000 Lovise Aalen r 2002: 2

party. The OPDO was on the verge of a major split, as parts of the leadership
wanted to leave the EPRDF coalition and become an independent party. One of
the leaders announced that “he would rather die than to continue being a
puppet [of TPLF]”
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(Indian Ocean Newsletter, June 30. 2000). In the southern
EPRDF party, the SEPDF, the party chairman and president of SNNPRS, Abate
Kisho, together with several others from the party leadership, were expelled
from the party because of collaboration with the TPLF dissenters and were
arrested for corruption (Addis Tribune, June 2001).
The internal split in the TPLF has thus changed the relationship between the
central TPLF/EPRDF leadership and the various regional allies. Since these
relations are decisive in defining the federal – regional relations, this event
might have direct impact on the operation of the federal system in Ethiopia.
Several scenarios are possible. Prime Minister Meles Zenawi escaped being
ousted from power, and has through a so-called “renewal movement” removed
opposing forces in EPRDF, TPLF and the other member parties. The Tigrayan-
based fraction of the TPLF has been severely weakened. More central
interference in regional affairs in Tigray is to be expected hereafter, to prevent
new conflicts to erupt. Tigray might lose its position as the most autonomous
region in the federation, and there might be a clearer division between the
central and regional TPLF leadership. Another possible scenario is that because
Meles’ position is weakened inside the Tigray based TPLF, he has to rely more
on support from the other EPRDF parties and affiliates to stay in power. In
order to achieve support from them, the central leadership might have to give
greater autonomy for the regional governments and a more genuine federal
division of power. The outcome of the TPLF split is hard to predict. It shows
that federal-regional relations in Ethiopia are closely linked to changes in party
power, and hence, that the nature of the federal system will continue to change
in future.
The struggle between central and regional forces has been the main theme
throughout the history of Ethiopian state building. In the medieval and
imperial ages, the struggle was between regional lords and the centrally based
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About half of the central committee in the OPDO defected to the militant opposition OLF,
one of the most significant defector was Almaz Mako, the speaker of the House of the
Federation (Africa Confidential October 26. 2000).

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king or Emperor, while in the second half of the 20
th
century, it was between
ethnically based liberation movements and central autocracies. Does the
current federalisation of Ethiopia offer a new and sustainable solution to the
central- regional conflicts or are the old struggles just continuing in another
shape? The federal system offers at least the legal and institutional framework
for a reorganisation of central-regional relations. But as this analysis has
demonstrated, the adoption of the new framework has so far not led to any
fundamental change in the relationship between regional and central forces in
the Ethiopian state. Like in the past, the central government, now the
EPRDF/TPLF instead of the Emperor or the Derg, is attempting to control the
regional forces through power exercise. But the internal split in the TPLF and
the following uprising in the other regional parties show how fragile the power
base of the central government might be.

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