Nigeria 2015: analysis of election issues and future prospects
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| The Economist, 23 August 2014
129 Ibid., and McKinsey Global Institute, “Nigeria’s renewal: Delivering inclusive growth in Africa's largest economy”, July 2014, p.45 131 African Development Bank, Nigeria Economic Outlook 2014, p.9 132 African Development Bank, Nigeria Economic Outlook 2014, p.9 and National Planning Commission, “NIIMP: Planning Commission Engages States to Establish Infrastructure Delivery Units” 133 National Planning Commission, “Bridging Nigeria’s infrastructural gaps through NIIMP”, September 2014 134 T. Ogunlesi, “The ebb and flow of US-Nigeria relations”, blog, 14 August 2014 135 “Nigeria stops oil exports to US as shale effect cuts demand”, Financial Times, 3 October 2014 136 US-Nigeria Binational Commission 137 J. Campbell, “US policy to counter Nigeria’s Boko Haram”, Council on Foreign Relations, November 2014, p4 138 “No signs of Nigeria likely to fall apart in 2015 – US”, Daily Independent, 8 January 2015 139 L. Ploch, “Nigeria: Current issues and US policy”, Congressional Research Service, 24 April 2013 140 W. O. Alli, “The role of Nigeria in regional security policy”, Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, Abuja, 2012, p80 141 L. Ploch Blanchard, “Nigeria’s Boko Haram: Frequently asked questions”, Congressional Research Service, 10 June 2014 142 Testimony of Alice Friend, Department of Defense Principal Director for African Affairs, to the Senate Subcommittee on African Affairs, 15 May 2014 143 “DOD Sends UAV, 80 Airmen to Help Nigerian Search”, American Forces Press Service, 22 May 2014 144 “Nigeria ends US mission to counter Boko Haram”, Defense News, 1 December 2014 145 “No arms embargo on Nigeria: US”, The Nation, 9 January 2015 146 Trade data from United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) database 147 Javier Blas, Victim of shale revolution, Nigeria stops exporting oil to US, Financial Times, 2 October 2014 148 Office of the United States Trade Representative, U.S. and Nigeria Conclude Meeting under Trade and Investment Framework Agreement, 3 December 2012 149 Office of the United States Trade Representative, United States and Nigeria Hold 8th Trade and Investment Framework Agreement Meeting, March 2014 150 USAID: Nigeria 151 L. Ploch, “Nigeria: Current issues and US policy”, Congressional Research Service, 24 April 2013 152 F. Aribisala, “Is Britain Nigeria’s evil stepmother?”, Nigeria Development and Finance Forum, 13 January 2014 153 “UK and Nigeria”, UK Government website 154 “Shell agrees $84m deal over Niger Delta oil spill”, BBC News Online, 7 January 2015 155 Foreign Affairs Committee, “The UK’s response to extremism and instability in North and West Africa”, HC 86, 7th Report, Session 2013-14, 21 March 2014, Vol. 1, paras 58-63 156 HC Deb 12 January 2015 c606 157 “Foreign Secretary announces UK support following ministerial on Boko Haram”, FCO press release, 12 June 2014 158 HC Deb 12 January 2015 c606 159 “Britain plans more military trainers to help Nigeria fight Boko Haram”, Daily Telegraph, 28 November 2014. It is unclear whether this request was prompted by the fact that Nigeria had asked the US to terminate training its new counter-terrorism focused ranger battalion (see section 3.1 of this paper). 160 HC Deb 12 January 2015 c607 161 HC Deb 12 January 2015 c607 162 Trade data from United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) database 163 United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) database 164 DFID, Annual Report and Accounts 2013-14, p71 165 DFID, Annual Report and Accounts 2013-14, p71 166 DFID Nigeria, Operational Plan 2011-2015: updated June 2013. Expenditure on Nigeria is set to increase further in 2015/16 and 2016/17. See also the Nigeria entry on DFID’s Development Tracker website. 167 D. Booth, “Towards politically smart, locally led development in Africa”, African Arguments, 23 October 2014 168 DFID Nigeria, Operational Plan 2011-2015: updated June 2013 169 DFID, Anti-Corruption Strategy for Nigeria, January 2013 170 Europa – Cotonou Agreement 171 Africa—EU Partnership 173 The Nigeria-EU Joint Way Forward, 9 June 2009 174 “Nigeria: EU partners Nigeria on elections, security”, Daily Independent, 28 November 2014 175 “The EU designates Boko Haram a terrorist organisation”, EU press release, 2 June 2014 176 J. Barna, “Insecurity in context: The rise of Boko Haram in Nigeria”, European Parliament Policy Department Note 2014/113, July 2014, pp21-2 177 Supplementary written evidence by FCO Minister of State Mark Simmonds to the Foreign Affairs Committee’s inquiry “The UK’s response to extremism and instability in North and West Africa”, December 2013 178 Trade data from United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) database 179 European Commission, Nigeria-EU Ministerial Troika Meeting, 9 June 2009 180 European Commission, West African leaders back Economic Partnership Agreement with EU 11 July 2014 181 European Commission, West African leaders back Economic Partnership Agreement with EU 11 July 2014 182 EU-Nigeria Country Strategy Paper and National Indicative Programme 2008-2013 183 EU External Action, Nigeria 184 EU-Nigeria National Indicative Programme 2014-2020 185 D. Shinn and J. Eisenman, China and Africa. A Century of Engagement (Philadelphia, 2012), pp301-2 186 D. Shinn and J. Eisenman, China and Africa. A Century of Engagement (Philadelphia, 2012), pp303 187 “China” US Energy Information Administration [last updated February 2014] 188 D. Shinn and J. Eisenman, China and Africa. A Century of Engagement (Philadelphia, 2012), pp304; J. Campbell, “Who’s in charge, China or Nigeria?”, globalpost.com, 7 June 2010 189 Forum on China-Africa Cooperation 190 Trade data from United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) database 191 “China and Nigeria agree oil deal”, BBC News Online, 26 April 2006 192 G. Mthembu-Salter, “Elephants, ants and superpowers: Nigeria’s relations with China”, South African Institute of International Affairs, September 2009, pp7-9 193 D. Shinn and J. Eisenman, China and Africa. A Century of Engagement (Philadelphia, 2012), pp304-5 194 “Nigerians in China rely on Chinese ladies for survival – envoy”, Newswatch Times, 18 May 2014 195 “India-Nigeria relations”, Indian Ministry of External Affairs, January 2014 196 S. Naidu, “India stepping up the ante in African relations”, Pambazuka News, 25 March 2010 197 P. Vasudevan, “The changing nature of Nigeria-India relations”, Chatham House Programme Paper AFP 2010/02, December 2010, pp4-6 198 Trade data from United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) database 199 “India” US Energy Information Administration [last updated June 2014] 200 Global System of Trade Preferences among Developing Countries 201 “Nigeria-India: A key partnership”, lecture by HE Nonye Rajis-Okpara, Nigerian High Commissioner to Singapore at the National University of Singapore, 21 March 2013 202 See the website for the India-Africa Forum Summit 2011 203 New Delhi Declaration, 9 April 2008; Africa-India Framework for Enhanced Cooperation, 25 May 2011. See also the website for the Africa-India Forum Summit 2011 204 J. Lal, “India Africa Forum Summits: Engagements and outcomes”, Indian Council of World Affairs, 20 November 2013 205 “India-Nigeria relations”, Indian Ministry of External Affairs, January 2014 206 “Murder sparks India-Nigeria diplomatic storm”, Al Jazeera, 10 November 2013 207 See the Nigeria entry of the CIA World Factbook [all links in this paper last accessed 14 January 2015] 208 National Population Commission of Nigeria 209 Nigeria entry of the CIA World Factbook 210 Nigeria entry of the CIA World Factbook 211 Nigeria entry of the CIA World Factbook 212 M. Basedau, J. Vullers and P. Korner, “What drives inter-religious violence? Lessons from Nigeria, Cote d’Ivoire and Tanzania”, Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, 36:10, 2013, p866 213 Atul Kohli, State-directed Development. Political Power and Industrialisation in the Global Periphery (Cambridge, 2006), p9 214 For a fuller discussion, see: Patrick Chabal, Africa: The Politics of Suffering and Smiling (London, 2009); Achille Mbembe, On the Postcolony (Oakland, 2001) 215 The main umbrella groups are the Nigerian Supreme Council for Islamic Affairs and the Christian Association of Nigeria. 216 Ruth Marshall, Political Spiritualities. The Pentecostal Revolution in Nigeria (Chicago, 2009), p2 218 John Campbell, Nigeria: Dancing on the Brink (New York, 2013), p53 219 Ruth Marshall, Political Spiritualities. The Pentecostal Revolution in Nigeria (Chicago, 2009) 220 Ruth Marshall, Political Spiritualities. The Pentecostal Revolution in Nigeria (Chicago, 2009), p215 221 John Campbell, Nigeria: Dancing on the Brink (New York, 2013), p47 222 Boko Haram is discussed in more depth in sections 2.1 and 4.8 of this paper. 223 Salafism is a fundamentalist Sunni religious movement which originated in the 18th Century. 224 John Campbell, Nigeria: Dancing on the Brink (New York, 2013), p55 225 John Campbell, Nigeria: Dancing on the Brink (New York, 2013), p63 226 Economic and social rights are also covered in section 4.4 of this paper. 227 See, for example: M. Mamdani, Citizen and subject: Contemporary Africa and the legacy of late colonialism (Princeton, 1996); A. Jauhari, “Colonial and post-colonial human rights violations in Nigeria”, International Journal of Humanities and Social Science, May 2011 228 See, for example: “Welcome to hell fire”. Torture and other ill-treatment in Nigeria”, Amnesty International, 18 September 2014 229 “Oil bunkering in Nigeria: 7% of Nigerian crude oil stolen daily”, World Oil News Centre, 28 February 2012 230 A Olowofoyeku, “The Beleaguered Fortress: Reflections of the Independence of Nigeria's Judiciary”, Journal of African Law, Spring 1989 231 J. Nwokeoma, “The judiciary’s redemptive role in Nigeria’s democracy”, Peace and Collaborative Development Network, 7 November 2007; National Human Rights Commission; Independent National Electoral Commission; Economic and Financial Crimes Commission 232 “Electoral body to release voting plan on IDPs”, Pan African News Agency, 5 January 2015 233 This violence is sometimes described as ‘communal violence’. 234 I. Hassan, “Why are the stakes so high for the 2015 elections?”, African Arguments, 16 December 2014 235 The chart was taken from the BBC News Online website on 15 January 2015. See: “Boko Haram crisis: why it is hard to know the truth in Nigeria”, 13 January 2015 236 Human Rights Watch, “Nigeria: Boko Haram kills 2,053 civilians in six months”, 15 July 2014 237 Nigeria Security Tracker [figures at 2 January 2015] 238 Armed Conflict Location and Data Event Project, “Trend 3: violence against civilians in 2014” 239 HC Deb 12 January 2015 c601 240 HC Deb 12 January 2015 c601 241 “Thousands of people displaced by conflict in north-eastern Nigeria have taken refuge in Maiduguri”, ICRC update, 6 November 2014 242 Amnesty International, “Q&A: Nigeria’s military implicated in war crimes”, 5 August 2014”; Human Rights Watch, “How do you beat Boko Haram with an army that is almost as evil?”, 14 May 2014 243 “Boko Haram suspects found dead after arrest by Nigerian army”, BBC News Online, 6 November 2014 244 “Nigeria school assembly in Potiskum hit by blast”, BBC News Online, 10 November 2014 245 International Institute for Strategic Studies, The Military Balance 2014, p415 246 John Campbell, Nigeria: Dancing on the Brink (New York, 2013), ppxviii 247 “Welcome to hell fire”. Torture and other ill-treatment in Nigeria”, Amnesty International, 18 September 2014, The Nigerian police has contested Amnesty International’s claims. See: “Nigeria Police Force refutes Amnesty International report, says torture is prohibited”, Vanguard, 18 September 2014 248 “Welcome to hell fire”. Torture and other ill-treatment in Nigeria”, Amnesty International, 18 September 2014 249 John Campbell, Nigeria: Dancing on the Brink (New York, 2013), p45 250 “Nigeria's president signs law imposing up to 14 years' jail for gay relationships”, Guardian, 13 January 2014 251 John Campbell, Nigeria: Dancing on the Brink (New York, 2013), ppxv and 99 252 UNDP, "Table 2: Human Development Index trends, 1980-2013". The Human Development Index takes account of Gross National Income (GNI), life expectancy and levels of education 253 It should be emphasised at the outset that there are significant data integrity issues. For some targets, data is available up to and including 2013; for many others, data from recent years is not yet available. For other targets, the number of data points in the series is very few. For example, we know that the literacy rate of 15-24 year olds fell from 71.2% in 1991 to 66.4% in 2008, but we know very little about what precisely happened in between those dates: the only intermediate data point is for 2003, when the rate stood at 69.0%. For some of the MDG indicators, such as the proportion of own-account and contributing family workers in total employment, there is no data at all, whilst for other targets the data’s incoherencies are such that it is of little use. As another example, there are three sets of data for the tuberculosis prevalence rate (the “lower bound”, “mid-point” and “upper bound”), none of which bear much resemblance to each other. In 2012, the lower bound, mid-point and upper bound respectively were 25, 161 and 420 per 100,000 population. Given such wide divergences it is difficult to have any confidence in the data. 254 Department for International Development, Annual Report and Accounts 2013-14, 15 July 2014, HC 11, Session 2014-15, p71. A red rating does not necessarily mean there has been no progress (it may simply mean that progress has been “very slow”), whilst an amber rating means that progress is insufficiently quick to meet the MDG target by 2015. 255 Admittedly this came after an increase from 62.8% to 71.3% between 1999 and 2007. 256 P. Rogers, “Nigeria: the generic context of the Boko Haram violence”, Oxford Research Group, 1 April 2012 257 Thus whilst the percentage of the population using an improved water source has increased, the same cannot be said for the percentage of the population using an improved sanitation facility. 258 Abuja Declaration on HIV/AIDS, Tuberculosis and other Related Infectious Diseases 259 ONE, "The 2013 data report", 22 July 2013, pp. 30 & 35 260 “How Nigeria defeated Ebola”, Guardian, 31 October 2014 261 National Population Commission, ICF International; Nigeria: Demographic and Health Survey 2013, June 2014, p120 262 National Population Commission, ICF International; Nigeria: Demographic and Health Survey 2013, June 2014, p120 263 Looney, Robert E.. Economy (Nigeria), in Europa World online. London, Routledge. House of Commons. Retrieved 08 January 2015 from http://www.europaworld.com/entry/ng.ec 264 IMF Finance & Development magazine vol 45, no. 4, “Point of View: Nigeria's Shot at Redemption”, Dec 2008 265 IMF, World Economic Outlook October 2014 database 266 World Bank, World Development Indicators [accessed 9 January 2015] 267 National Bureau of Statistics and “Step change; Nigeria’s GDP”, The Economist, 12 April 2014 268 World Bank, Nigeria Economic Report, July 2014 269 Central Bank of Nigeria, Statistics database – real sector statistics, GDP statistics 270 National Bureau of Statistics, GDP Report Q3 - 2014, November 2014 271 All trade data in this section come from United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) database 272 BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2014 273 PwC, Nigeria’s 2015 budget: fiscal and macro analyses, December 2014 274 Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Minister of Finance, “An overview of the 2015 budget proposal: A transition budget”, 17 December 2014 and Budget Office, “An analysis of the 2015 FGN Budget”, 17 December 2014 275 “Nigeria forced to revise budget as oil prices remain low”, BBC News, 17 December 2014 276 IMF, Nigeria: 2013 article IV consultation - staff report, April 2014, p.5 277 “Nigeria's naira touches record low after official devaluation”, Reuters, 26 November 2014 |