Premier Debate 2016 September/October ld brief

NEG—Resource Wars DA

Energy insecurity is rampant and especially prominent in low income countries.

Cherp 12 [Aleh; Professor of Environmental Sciences and Policy, Central European University; 2012; “Chapter 5 – Energy and Security. In Global Energy Assessment – Toward a Sustainable Future”; Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria; pp. 325-384] [Premier]

Uninterrupted provision of vital energy services (see Chapter 1 , Section 1.2.2 ) – energy security – is a high priority of every nation. Energy security concerns are a key driving force of energy policy. These concerns relate to the robustness (suffi ciency of resources, reliability of infrastructure, and stable and affordable prices); sovereignty (protection from potential threats from external agents); and resilience (the ability to withstand diverse disruptions) of energy systems. Our analysis of energy security I ssues in over 130 countries shows that the absolute majority of them are vulnerable from at least one of these three perspectives. For most industrial countries, energy insecurity means import dependency and aging infrastructure, while many emerging economies have additional vulnerabilities such as insufficient capacity, high energy intensity, and rapid demand growth. In many low-income countries, multiple vulnerabilities overlap, making them especially insecure.

Resource concentration and increased demand cause resource wars over oil.

Cherp 12 [Aleh; Professor of Environmental Sciences and Policy, Central European University; 2012; “Chapter 5 – Energy and Security. In Global Energy Assessment – Toward a Sustainable Future”; Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria; pp. 325-384] [Premier]

Oil and its products lack easily available substitutes in the transport sector, where they provide at least 90% of energy in almost all countries. Furthermore, the global demand for transport fuels is steadily rising, especially rapidly in Asian emerging economies. Disruptions of oil supplies may thus result in catastrophic effects on such vital functions of modern states as food production, medical care, and internal security. At the same time, the global production capacity of conventional oil is widely perceived as limited. These factors result in rising and volatile prices of oil affecting all economies, especially low-income countries, almost all of which import over 80% of their oil supplies. The costs of energy (primarily oil) imports exceed 20% of the export earnings in 35 countries with 2.5 billion people and exceed 10% of gross domestic product (GDP) in an additional 15 countries with 200 million people. The remaining conventional oil resources are increasingly geographically concentrated in just a few countries and regions. This means that most countries must import an ever-higher share or even all of their oil. More than three billion people live in 83 countries that import more than 75% of the oil products they consume. This does not include China, where oil import dependency is projected to increase from the current 53% to 84% in 2035. The increasing concentration of conventional oil production and the rapidly shifting global demand patterns make some analysts and politicians fear a “scramble for energy” or even “resource wars.”

Nuclear infrastructure is aging and limited to a handful of rich countries—Continued investment key.

Cherp 12 [Aleh; Professor of Environmental Sciences and Policy, Central European University; 2012; “Chapter 5 – Energy and Security. In Global Energy Assessment – Toward a Sustainable Future”; Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria; pp. 325-384] [Premier]

Many countries using nuclear power are experiencing an aging of the reactor fleet and workforce, as well as difficulties in accessing capital and technologies to renew, expand, or launch new nuclear programs. Twenty of the 31 countries with nuclear power programs have not started building a new reactor in the last 20 years, and in 19 countries the average age of nuclear power plants is over 25 years. Large-scale enrichment, reactor manufacturing, and reprocessing technologies and capacities are currently concentrated in just a few countries. Transfer of these technologies and capacities to a larger number of countries is constrained by serious concerns over nuclear weapons proliferation, which is one of the main controversies and risks associated with nuclear energy. If nuclear energy can address energy security challenges, it will only happen in a few larger and more prosperous economies.

Over half the world lives in a country that needs to massively expand energy production, blackouts are rampant.

Cherp 12 [Aleh; Professor of Environmental Sciences and Policy, Central European University; 2012; “Chapter 5 – Energy and Security. In Global Energy Assessment – Toward a Sustainable Future”; Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria; pp. 325-384] [Premier]

Various vulnerabilities in electricity supply are often made worse by demand-side pressures. Some 4.2 billion people live in 53 countries that will need to expand the capacity of their electricity systems massively in the near future because they have either less than 60% access to electricity or an average demand growth of over 6% over the last decade. Both fuels and infrastructure for such an expansion will need to be provided without further compromising the sovereignty or resilience of national electricity systems. The reliability of electricity supply is a serious concern, especially in developing countries. In almost three-quarters of low-income countries blackouts are on average for more than 24 hours per month, and in about one-sixth of low-income countries blackouts average over 144 hours (six days) a month. In over one-half of low-income countries blackouts occur at least 10 times a month.

Nuclear energy supply is more stable and secure than oil.

Cherp 12 [Aleh; Professor of Environmental Sciences and Policy, Central European University; 2012; “Chapter 5 – Energy and Security. In Global Energy Assessment – Toward a Sustainable Future”; Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria; pp. 325-384] [Premier]

Whereas the energy security concerns related to fossil fuels are primarily related to the supply and demand of resources, in case of nuclear power the primary concerns relate to nuclear energy infrastructure and technologies. Unlike fossil fuels, the fuel of nuclear energy (uranium) has a fairly high security of supply, offers protection from fuel price fluctuations, and is possible to stockpile. In comparison to oil and gas, uranium is abundant and more geographically distributed, with a third of proven reserves in OECD countries (NEA, 2008 ). Recent estimates indicate that even in the face of a large expansion of nuclear energy, proven uranium reserves would last at least a century (Macfarlane and Miller, 2007 ; NEA, 2008 ). 8 Furthermore, electricity produced from nuclear energy offers a greater protection from fluctuations in raw commodity prices; while doubling uranium prices leads to a 5–10% increase in generating cost for nuclear power, doubling the cost of coal and gas leads to a 35–45% and 70–80% increase, respectively (IAEA, 2008 ). Uranium is also a relatively easy fuel to stockpile. The refueling of a nuclear power plant generally provides fuel for two to three years of operation (Nelson and Sprecher, 2008 ), and it is possible to store up to a 10-year supply of nuclear fuel (IAEA, 2007b ). In contrast, oil and gas emergency reserves, where they exist, are measured in days, weeks, or – in exceptional cases – months, not years.

Nuclear power requires government support.

Cherp 12 [Aleh; Professor of Environmental Sciences and Policy, Central European University; 2012; “Chapter 5 – Energy and Security. In Global Energy Assessment – Toward a Sustainable Future”; Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria; pp. 325-384] [Premier]

At the same time, there are significant energy security risks associated with technological, economic, and institutional characteristics of nuclear power production. As the most capital-intensive electricity generation technology, it is economically difficult for nuclear energy to compete in liberalized markets where the investor has to assume the financial risk of investment. As a result, strong government backing is necessary for the development of nuclear power (Finon and Roques, 2008 ).