Project document

Table 1. Area of Municipalities in SAS

Municipality	Area
Canindé de São Francisco	902.25
Gararu	654.99
Monte Alegre	407.41
Nossa Senhora da Glória	756.49
Nossa Senhora de Lourdes	81.06
Poço Redondo	1,232.12
Porto da Folha	877.30
Total	4,911.62

Table 2. Land Degradation in SAS: Existing and Potential Levels

Municipality*	Existing Land Degradation			Potential Land Degradation
	Soil	Vegetation	Erosion	Soil	Vegetation	Erosion
Canindé S.F.	Accentuated	Severe	Accentuated	Severe	Severe	Severe
Gararu	Accentuated	Severe	Accentuated	Accentuated	Severe	Accentuated
Monte Alegre	Moderate	Severe	Moderate	Accentuated	Severe	Accentuated
N.S. de Glória	Moderate	Accentuated	Moderate	Accentuated	Severe	Accentuated
Poço Redondo	Accentuated	Severe	Moderate	Accentuated	Severe	Accentuated
Porto da Folha	Accentuated	Severe	Accentuated	Accentuated	Severe	Accentuated

*Data not available for Nossa Senhora de Lourdes.

**Land degradation index: absent < slight < moderate < accentuated < severe.

Source: Panorama da Desertificação em Sergipe, http://www.mma.gov.br, cited in PAE-SE (SEMARH 2012:31).

7. 
   It is not clear how climate change will affect each part of the ASD, but Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) are clearly linked to changes in temperature and precipitation even at the regional level. The IPCC predictions about climate change indicate losses in the productivity of food crops in NE Brazil such as beans, corn and manioc. Their nutritional quality can also decrease because of higher sugar content and lower protein content. Inland, higher temperatures due to climate change will certainly increase evapotranspiration and dryness, as foreseen by the IPCC, affecting both the soil and reservoirs, tending to intensify water deficiency. The El Niño effect is expected in 2014. However, higher sea surface temperatures in the nearby Atlantic Ocean may also increase atmospheric moisture and its transport inland, leading to more precipitation, possibly on a seasonal basis. This rainfall may benefit Caatinga vegetation, which is under constant stress but reacts very quickly to availability of water, with explosive growth, also benefiting populations of native fauna dependent on the vegetation and necessary for pollination and seed dispersal, i.e. ecosystem functions.
   

1. 
   Socio-Economic Context
   

8. 
   Brazil, the world's fifth largest country, is a developing country that is emerging as one of the world’s largest economies, with GDP of US$2.33 trillion and a key role in international affairs. It is one of the BRICS, the five major emerging economics (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), as well as participating in the BASIC bloc (Brazil, South Africa, India and China) and the IBSA Dialogue Forum (India, Brazil and South Africa). It participates in both the G20 and the G77 plus China. Growth was relatively strong during the recent economic crisis, but slowed to 1% per year in 2013. The industry and service sectors have grown, but agriculture and livestock, now integrated with agro-industry, which provides inputs and processes outputs, remain a mainstay of the economy, producing food and providing tax revenues from exports. In 2010, the population of Brazil was 190,732,694, which is almost half the total for South America, projected to be 404,630,715 in 2013. Currently, 85% live in officially urban places, which include many small towns in the interior. The rural population is concentrated in the Northeast, one of Brazil’s five macro-regions. Fertility has declined to a Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 1.64, well below the replacement level, and consequently the age structure is growing older.
   

9. 
   Brazil's economic, social and environmental achievements have put the country in a position of international leadership, but serious problems remain. The Human Development Index (HDI) grew from 0.590 in 1990 to 0.726 in 2010, a level ranked 85th in the world. In contrast to its economic and demographic importance, Brazil stands out worldwide for its regional and income inequality, between the extremes of the poor Northeast and the more wealthy Southeast. Overall, income inequality fell from 0.594 in 2001 to 0.521 in 2011, a 50-year low. The statutory minimum wage underwent real increases. Government policies have combated extreme poverty with family stipends and the Brazil without Misery initiative, which now includes socio-productive inclusion (job training, opportunities for self-employment and promotion of productive activities for the poor) in addition to the cash transfers. Well-focused social programs include rural worker retirement, the Family Stipends Program (PBF), "Zero Hunger" for food security, "Light for All" for electricity, "Water for All" for water supply, "My Life, My House" for housing and "My House Better" for furniture and appliances. Government also purchases food (PAA) and provides school lunches (PNAE). During droughts in semiarid areas, there are drought stipends, water tank trucks and harvest insurance. Such social programs save lives (millions of people died in past droughts, but none died due to the recent drought), avoid out-migration and alleviate pressure on land, although they do not avoid the death of cattle during droughts. They also increase local consumer demand. At the state level, the "Greater Fairness in Sergipe" works with cash transfers, productive inclusion and access to public services.
   

10. 
    Brazil has made rapid progress in addressing gender disparities. Illiteracy among both men and women is becoming residual and there are more women than men in universities. Women participate in the labor force and in social movements. Few special efforts are needed to increase their participation at the community level. On the other hand, Brazilian women are paid 58% of what their male colleagues earn while devoting over 15 hours more each week to housework than men and the level of participation in the executive and legislative branches is low. There are also problems with domestic violence.
    

11. 
    In 2010, Sergipe had a population of 2,068,017, including 1.4 million inhabitants living in absolute poverty (average household income of up to 0.5 minimum wage), the vast majority of whom are in extreme poverty with the average household income being less than 0.25 of the minimum wage. In 2010 the SAS had 137,926 inhabitants, of which more than half (74,478 or 54%) were classified as rural (Table 3). The ASDs, including those in Sergipe, and especially in the SAS, have some of the worst human development indices of the NE region based on indicators such as poverty, education and mortality rates (Tables 2, 3, 4 and 5). Illiteracy rates in the semiarid areas are high, with 36% of children age 7-14 unable to read and write, 43% of youth 12-17 years old and 60% of those 18 and over. As in Brazil's NE in general, few people have secondary schooling, much less higher education. The percentage of people living in houses with insufficient water and sewage ranges from 9.53% in Nossa Senhora de Lourdes to 19.24% in Gararu. The average Family Development Index (IDF), used to measure levels of family development based on factors such as resource availability and living conditions, is 0.54, compared to 0.70 for Brazil. The NE is a stronghold of gender discrimination as compared to the rest of Brazil, where women have made significant advances, although change is under way. There are more women than men in urban areas and more men than women in rural areas of the NE. The state government has established a Special Secretariat of Policies for Women (SEPMULHERES).