Verbatim Mac

Air Pollution

Blackouts Case DA

1NC 2 -

Wind technology bad for China

1. Wind turbines is wasted and they cause damage to China’s grid

2. Wind is insufficient to match peak load, which causes blackouts and power grid failure

3. The best areas for wind tech are far away from large cities – Follett

Blackouts get worse as more renewable tech is added – leads to power outages costing billions of dollars, rolling blackouts spread across the country and threaten food spoilage, increased crime and the breakdown of modern civilization – Matthewman

Blackouts will increase and worsen as the shift to renewables progresses

Matthewman, S. D., & Byrd, H. (2014). (University of Auckland, pHD, “Blackouts: A Sociology of Electrical Power Failure”. Social Space, 1-25. Retrieved from http://socialspacejournal.eu/Sz%C3%B3sty%20numer/Steve%20Matthewman%2 0Hugh%20Byrd%20- %20Blackouts%20a%20sociology%20of%20electrical%20power%20failure.pdf)//SZ

Energy security remains an issue for those countries with access to significant renewable energy supplies. Weather is not always dependable and is likely to become less predictable with global warming. For instance, blackouts in Kenya (Burnham, Groneworld, 2010), India (BBC 2008b), Tanzania (BBC 2006) and Venezuela were caused by shortages of rain for hydro dams. Indeed, the Executive Office of the President released a report prepared by the President’s Council of Economic Advisers and the U.S. Department of Energy Office (2013: 3) which lists ‘severe hurricanes, winter storms, heat waves, floods and other extreme weather events’ as being increasingly likely due to anthropogenic climate change. Understanding blackouts is more than a record of past failures. It is argued that current blackouts are dress rehearsals for the future in which they will appear with greater frequency and severity. The potential scale of the problem is alarming. On Thursday 14th August 2003 a blackout in the north-eastern United States and Ontario took power away from 50,000,000 people (Jacobs 2013), the Saturday 10th November 2009 blackout in Brazil and Paraguay affected 60 million people (McGowan 2009), while the blackout in India on Tuesday 31st July 2012 affected 20 of the country’s 28 states, taking out three of its five grids, affecting as many as 600,000,000 (Energy Data 2012). Increasing numbers of blackouts are predicted due to growing uncertainties in supply and growing certainties in demand. Supply will become increasingly precarious because of peak oil, political instability, infrastructural neglect, global warming and the shift to renewable energy resources. Demand will become stronger because of population growth, rising levels of affluence and the consumer ‘addictions’ which accompany it.1 In closing two such ‘addictions’ are considered: current air-conditioning use and potential future electric vehicle (EV) use.

It’s a positive feedback loop – Blackouts increase the use of diesel back-up generators – that increases local air pollution and dependency on gas, which causes more blackouts

Khan 12 (Shahriar, Independent University, “Modern Transitions in Saving Energy and the Environment” http://cdn.intechopen.com/pdfs/32335.pdf)//SZ

In developing countries, the discrepancies between demand and supply may cause rolling blackouts, otherwise known as load shedding. This inability to meet load requirements induces consumers such as households and offices to install back-up gnerators and UPS (Uninterruptible Power Supplies). Back-up generators, create further problems, such as those described below. 1. Back-up generators require capital investment by consumers, likely to be much greater than the extra investment required in power stations. 2. The efficiencies of such back-up generators are much lower than that of power plants. 3. The smaller genertors normally operate at less than full load, causing the efficiencies to be even lower. 4. Back-up generators require diesel whereas power plants have the potential to operate on the more available coal. 5. Back up generators bring exhaust and pollution to the premises of the consumers, rather than having them at the distant power station. 6. Back-up generators create greater dependence on diesel or gas, which may create further fuel shortages for power station, creating even more black-outs. This may induce consumers to invest more on back-up generators, creating a vicious cycle shown below 7. Back-up UPS are at best about 50 % efficient, and therefore end up consuming twice as much electricity from the power stations. 8. Back-up UPS may contribute to a similar vicious cycle as back-up generators, inducing even greater rolling black-outs (figure 6)

Widespread and long term blackouts has heavy economic costs for companies

Moylan, 14 [John, Industry Correspondent, BBC, “Electricity blackouts would cause ‘severe economic consequences’” November 27, 2014, http://www.bbc.com/news/business-30221520.]

The UK would face "severe economic consequences" if there was a serious disruption to the electricity supply.∂ The cost could run into billions of pounds, according to a new report from the Royal Academy of Engineering.∂ While the likelihood of such an outage is low, the report warns that calculating the impact of electricity blackouts is increasingly difficult.∂ The government says the report is right about the impacts of long blackouts but insists this will not happen.∂ The report says that the UK has not suffered serious power interruptions for 40 years.∂ But in that time our dependence upon electricity has increased. Our living patterns have also become more fragmented and complex.∂ That makes it very difficult to establish the overall cost to the economy.∂ Storms∂ "We have looked at the methods used to quantify the economic risk and the social impact, and found them wanting", says Dr John Roberts of the report's working group.∂ "A nationwide blackout lasting for longer than 48 hours could have a severe impact on society".∂ While that scenario is unlikely, Dr Roberts points to the storms and power cuts last winter in the south of England, which left hundreds of thousands of households without power in the run up to Christmas.∂ He adds that significant adverse political impacts would result from any kind of electricity shortfall.∂ "Our historic high levels of supply in the UK mean that we are accustomed to the lights always staying on," he says.∂ 'Yardstick'∂ Estimates suggest that the UK needs to spend upwards of £200bn over the next decade to upgrade and decarbonise the electricity supply infrastructure.∂ Dr Roberts concludes: "We do not have a good yardstick to compare the potential cost of infrastructure investment with the cost to society of power outages."∂ The report outlines costs associated with previous real world blackouts, including the capacity crisis that hit California in the summer of 2000.∂ That resulted in rolling blackouts for 1.5 million people, cut California's GDP and is thought to have cost around $40bn.∂ The rolling power cuts that followed the Japanese tsunami and the explosions at the Fukushima power plant in 2011 are also highlighted.∂ The event affected 45 million people and led to shortages at companies around the world that were reliant upon components or parts made in Japan. It notes that data on the cost of the disaster is very limited.∂

*REM Turn

1NC 3 – Wind and solar production increases production of REMs –

Solar cells requires rare earth metals- but tech diffusion of solar panels would deplete crucial rare earth metals

Cho 12 (Renee Cho is a receiver of the Executive Education Certificate in Conservation and Sustainability from the Earth Institute Center for Environmental Sustainability and aCommunications Coordinator for Riverkeeper and the Hudson River environmental organization, Rare Earth Metals: Will We Have Enough?, September 19th 2012, http://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/2012/09/19/rare-earth-metals-will-we-have-enough/, AG)

Life in the 21st century wouldn’t be the same without rare earth metals. Cell phones, iPads, laptops, televisions, hybrid cars, wind turbines, solar cells and many more products depend on rare earth metals to function. Will there be enough for us to continue our high-tech lifestyle and transition to a renewable energy economy? Do we need to turn to deep seabed or asteroid mining to meet future demand? “To provide most of our power through renewables would take hundreds of times the amount of rare earth metals that we are mining today,” said Thomas Graedel, Clifton R. Musser Professor of Industrial Ecology and professor of geology and geophysics at the Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies. There is no firm definition of rare earth metals, but the term generally refers to metals used in small quantities. Rare earth metals include: rare earth elements—17 elements in the periodic table, the 15 lanthanides plus scandium and yttrium; six platinum group elements; and other byproduct metals that occur in copper, gold, uranium, phosphates, iron or zinc ores. While many rare earth metals are actually quite common, they are seldom found in sufficient amounts to be extracted economically. According to a recent Congressional Research Service report, world demand for rare earth metals is estimated to be 136,000 tons per year, and projected to rise to at least 185,000 tons annually by 2015. With continued global growth of the middle class, especially in China, India and Africa, demand will continue to grow. High-tech products and renewable energy technology cannot function without rare earth metals. Neodymium, terbium and dysprosium are essential ingredients in the magnets of wind turbines and computer hard drives; a number of rare earth metals are used in nickel-metal-hydride rechargeable batteries that power electric vehicles and many other products; yttrium is necessary for color TVs, fuel cells and fluorescent lamps; europium is a component of compact fluorescent bulbs and TV and iPhone screens; cerium and lanthanum are used in catalytic converters; platinum group metals are needed as catalysts in fuel cell technology; and other rare earth metals are essential for solar cells, cell phones, computer chips, medical imaging, jet engines, defense technology, and much more. Wind power has grown around 7 percent a year, increasing by a factor of 10 over the last decade, noted Peter Kelemen, Arthur D. Storke Memorial Professor of Geochemistry at the Earth Institute’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. “Every megawatt of electricity needs 200 kilograms of neodymium—or 20 percent of one ton,” he said. “So if every big wind turbine produces one megawatt, five turbines will require one ton of neodymium. If wind is going to play a major part in replacing fossil fuels, we will need to increase our supply of neodymium.” A recent MIT study projected that neodymium demand could grow by as much as 700 percent over the next 25 years; demand for dysprosium, also needed for wind turbines, could increase by 2,600 percent.

China is the largest producer of REMs – 95% of global supply

Yan, 6-5-2015 (Sophia, CNN "China is about to tighten its grip on rare earth minerals," http://money.cnn.com/2015/06/05/investing/molycorp-china-rare-earth-minerals/)//SZ

China controls about 95% of global rare earths production, and holds half the world's reserves of these metals, according to U.S. think tank National Center for Policy Analysis. For years, China controlled the export of rare earths, and instituted export tariffs as a way to boost its own industry and prevent depletion of natural resources. In 2010, Beijing abruptly reduced its export quota, pushing prices sky high and creating supply disruptions around the globe. Prices were rising dramatically when Molycorp went public, and the company invested heavily in mines that extract rare earths from the ground. As mineral prices reached record levels in 2011, investors snapped up company shares. But then the rare earths pricing bubble burst as new supply sources came online, and manufacturers replaced rare earths with substitute materials. China added to Molycorp's pain in January, when Beijing dropped a longstanding export quota on rare earth metals after losing a trade case at the World Trade Organization. And in April, Beijing abandoned its export tariffs on the minerals, which will help keep prices low. Plummeting prices have pushed Molycorp into the deep end. The company recently announced a $608 million annual net loss, and shares have tumbled by 57% so far this year. Meanwhile, China's rare earths companies are still flying high -- Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel is up 66% so far this year in Shanghai trading, China Northern Rare Earth has surged 45% and China Minmetals Rare Earth is up 32%.

CCP Collapse

1NC 4 - CCP won’t collapse from protests

1. 
   Unrest is insufficient to overthrow the popular legitimacy of the government - Mattis
   
2. 
   Paris offers perception that CCP is working to combat climate change
   

Air pollution

1NC 6 – Dini – studies prove no correlation between air pollution and increased mortality rate

1NC 7 – Aerosol particles decrease global albedo and atmosphereic CO2, massively slowing the effects of warming – Harris 11