Nigeria 2015: analysis of election issues and future prospects

Armed militant groups

Boko Haram

Overview

Since 2010, the Islamic terrorist group called Boko Haram has become by far the biggest threat to Nigeria’s internal security. Meaning ‘Western Education is forbidden’, Boko Haram’s formal name is Jama’at ahl al-sunna li-‘l dawa wa’l-jihad, which translates as People Committed to the Propagation of the Prophet’s Teachings and Jihad.

Estimates of the membership of the group range widely, with some arguing it may be as high as 50,000.³³³. But there is uncertainty over how far it is really a single organisation, rather than a loose coalition of affiliated groups.³³⁴ A senior Nigerian official has described it as a “franchise”.³³⁵

Its base has always been north-east Nigeria – in particular, Borno state. However, while most of its armed attacks have taken place in the north-east of the country, it has undertaken operations elsewhere too – including Kano, Jos and the capital, Abuja.

Some observers claim that Boko Haram has links to other jihadi armed groups inspired by al-Qaida in the wider West African region and beyond. While this may be so, the majority view is that its agendas are predominantly driven by local grievances rather than by global jihad.³³⁶

It appears that a substantial number of Boko Haram’s leaders and members come from the Kanuri ethnic group and that there may be a ‘civil war’ dimension to the phenomenon. Kanuri “commoners” have reportedly gravitated towards the group in significant numbers, disaffected by a Kanuri “oligarchy” which has lost much of its legitimacy in the course of the economic crisis that has affected the north-east.³³⁷

Origins and growth since 2010

Boko Haram first emerged in the late 1990s as a small Salafist sect under the leadership of a preacher called Mohammed Yusuf.³³⁸ Initially it was known as the Yusufiyya. It drew on the resonance of older jihadi movements going back as far as the establishment of the Sokoto Caliphate by Usman dan Fodio in the early 1800s.³³⁹

Until 2009 its activities were peaceful. However, after members were prevented by the police from attending a funeral in Borno state, leading to violent confrontation, Boko Haram launched an uprising. The security forces responded equally violently, killing hundreds of suspected members of the group. Mohammed Yusuf was captured and died in police custody.

For a brief interlude it appeared as if Boko Haram had collapsed. This turned out to be incorrect. In 2010 it re-emerged under a new leader, Muhammed Abubakar Shekau. Shekau had broken away from Yusuf for a period and been one of the leaders of the ‘Nigerian Taliban’, but later the two reconciled.³⁴⁰

Under Shekau’s leadership, large-scale violent attacks have become its preferred tactic – more often than not against civilians, although politicians and the military have also been targeted.³⁴¹ Thousands have died as a result of Boko Haram’s attacks and three states in the north – Borno, Yobe and Adamawa – have been placed in a state of emergency.³⁴² According to one politician, by early 2015 at least 70% of the north of Borno state had fallen to Boko Haram.³⁴³

Tactics evolve

Kidnappings have become increasingly common. The main goal is usually to trade them in exchange for money or the release of wives and children of group members taken into custody by the Nigerian authorities. The most notorious case in point was the kidnapping of 270 school girls in Chibok, Borno state, in April 2014. Another major kidnapping took place in Gumsuri, a village 20 kilometres away from Chibok, in December 2014. This time 185 people, including women and children, were kidnapped.³⁴⁴

In recent months, Boko Haram has started to engage the security forces much more directly and seek to expand its control over territory. It has held a number of towns for considerable periods. For a period in late 2014, there were fears that the capital of Borno state, Maiduguri, might fall to Boko Haram, but this risk subsequently receded.³⁴⁵

The group has also begun to carry out suicide bombings, some of them involving children of both sexes.³⁴⁶ A ten-year old was reportedly involved in a series of attacks involving three female suicide bombers in January 2015.³⁴⁷

There have been reports of rank-and-file soldiers deserting to Boko Haram or leaking information to the group.³⁴⁸

Over the last year, Boko Haram has also clashed on numerous occasions with soldiers on the Cameroon side of the border, seeking to control border towns in order to facilitate weapon supply lines and secure its rear-bases, signalling that it is now a threat to the wider Lake Chad region.³⁴⁹ Boko Haram has also carried out kidnappings in Cameroon. Cameroon has undertaken ground operations against the group and conducted some air strikes against it. But there are concerns that excesses committed by the Cameroon Army in the context of its counter-insurgency operations could strengthen Boko Haram’s position amongst the local population on that side of the border.³⁵⁰

Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad and Niger have established a multinational military task force to combat Boko Haram in the region. However, in January 2015, Boko Haram attacked and seized control of the border town of Baga, the town where the multinational task force had its official headquarters.³⁵¹ The force did not put up a fight and hundreds of civilians in the town and surrounding areas were killed by the group.³⁵² At the time of writing, Baga reportedly remains in the hands of Boko Haram.

Ideology and motivations

Boko Haram has announced the creation of an “Islamic Caliphate”.³⁵³ Some believe that it may be looking to recreate the Kanem—Borno Caliphate, whose heyday was a thousand years or so ago.³⁵⁴

This strongly suggests that the group is now taking inspiration from the self-declared ‘Islamic State’ in Syria and Iraq. But there is little hard evidence as yet of direct links with the Islamic State. In November 2014, a suicide bomber killed at least 23 people in a procession of Shi’a Muslims in Yobe state, suggesting to some that Boko Haram and its affiliates may be becoming more sectarian in approach.³⁵⁵

While Boko Haram’s tactics have changed dramatically over the last five years or so, there are important ideological continuities between the group as it operated under Mohammed Yusuf and under his successor.

For Yusuf, the main impulse behind Boko Haram was to cleanse the north of un-Islamic ideas and practices that for him originated in British colonialism and which the post-colonial Nigerian state had perpetuated. ‘Western education’ was viewed as symbolising this impurity. It called for the establishment of an Islamic state under Shari’a Law in Nigeria. The traditional Muslim leadership in Nigeria, which had retained considerable influence under a colonial system of ‘indirect rule’, is viewed by the group as corrupt and illegitimate. Muhammed Abubakar Shekau’s agenda is broadly similar to that of his predecessor, although exponentially more violent.

However, it is not clear how far its members are motivated mainly by ideology. Boko Haram’s most immediate demand today is the release of all its detained members by the Nigerian authorities. As with so many armed insurgencies, the reasons for becoming involved can be many and varied: for example, involvement may be primarily a way of seeking revenge for real or perceived injustices by the security forces; or it may simply be a means of survival in a region that is suffering a deep-rooted economic crisis and chronic insecurity.

There are rumours and allegations that behind the scenes the group has powerful political sponsors and links to criminal networks, but these have proven difficult to corroborate.³⁵⁶

Negotiations

In recent years there have been periods when the Nigerian authorities have sought to hold negotiations with representatives of Boko Haram. However, it is often unclear who Boko Haram representatives really represent.

In 2013 there were talks with Momammed Marwan, who claimed to be second-in-command to Shekau. Some observers questioned the extent to which this was true and the negotiations eventually foundered. ³⁵⁷ In October 2014, the authorities announced that a ceasefire, brokered by Chad, had been agreed with Boko Haram and that the 219 schoolgirls kidnapped in Chibok in April and still in its custody would soon be released. However, it all proved “too good to be true” and Boko Haram attacks continued unabated.³⁵⁸ Indeed, Boko Haram forces briefly took Chibok before being forced back.

There have also been claims that there is more than one Muhammed Abubakar Shekau – his death has been announced on more than one occasion.³⁵⁹ These episodes highlight the difficulty in finding the ‘right people’ to negotiate with in the event of future peace initiatives.

Ansaru

In January 2012, a group called Jama'atu Ansarul Muslimina Fi Biladis Sudan (Vanguards for the Protection of Muslims in Black Africa – known for short as Ansaru) announced that it had split from Boko Haram. Its leader is reported to be Khalid al-Barnawi.³⁶⁰

Information about this group is relatively limited and not always reliable. Some believe that Ansaru has separated from Boko Haram over ideology, with the former much more interested in global jihad – in practice meaning co-operation with Al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb, the main jihadi group in the West African Sahel.

However, others believe that its differences with Boko Haram are mainly derived from feelings that the latter is overly-dominated by the Kanuri ethnic group. Ansaru, by this interpretation, has been viewed as a vehicle for the rival Fulani ethnic group. Today, there is considerable uncertainty about whether Ansaru is still a separate group, or whether it has again become a ‘franchise’ of Boko Haram.³⁶¹

Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta

The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) has been the most active and best known of the armed groups operating in the oil-rich region in southeast Nigeria.

Described as a “loose coalition of militant groups, factions, and cults”, it first emerged in 2005.³⁶² Its leaders included Jomo Gbomo, General Tompolo and Henry Okah. Today, its main leader appears to be Jomo Gbomo. Its core programme has centred on securing compensation for communities affected by environmental degradation in the Niger Delta and a higher share of oil revenues for the region, as well as the release of detained leaders. Campbell asserts that the vast majority of the estimated 33 million residents of the Delta have benefited little from the oil production in the region.³⁶³

At times it has also called for the withdrawal of Nigerian security personnel and oil companies from the region. According to Jane’s Terrorism and Insurgency Centre:

MEND waged a damaging guerrilla campaign against the Nigerian security services and foreign companies - primarily multi-national energy companies - operating in the Niger Delta, in pursuit of a greater share of oil and gas revenues. Although MEND's populist credentials were eroded as members become associated with corrupt politicians and kidnapping for profit, the organisation established itself as a severe security threat in the Niger Delta and the greatest militant expression of popular disaffection with the government and international corporations.³⁶⁴

In 2009 most of MEND’s leaders agreed to participate in a government-sponsored amnesty programme and declared a ceasefire. Although some MEND commanders returned to armed attacks in 2010 and there were further operations in its name during 2013 and 2014, levels of violence in the Niger Delta reduced significantly following the amnesty.

As Boko Haram’s attacks have escalated, there have also been threats by MEND to undertake actions ‘in defence of Christianity’, although none have so far occurred. While levels of violence are still relatively low in the region, observers say that they have risen during 2014 and there remains a significant risk that they could escalate still further if differences between ‘northern’ and ‘southern’ parts of Nigeria’s political elite spiral out of control in the course of the 2015 presidential and legislative elections. In early January 2015, MEND publicly endorsed the presidential bid of the APC’s Muhammadu Buhari.³⁶⁵

9.