Nigeria 2015: analysis of election issues and future prospects
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The Economist, 29 November 2014
279 “Nigeria’s economic pain may not decide election”, Reuters, 14 December 2014 280 These issues are explored in depth in section 2.2 of this paper. The country also faces major political challenges, which are discussed in section 2.1. 281 Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, 1999 282 I. Ayua and D.C.J. Dakas, “The Federal Republic of Nigeria”, International Association of Centers of Federal Studies, n.d 283 “Key National Conference recommendations you need to know”, Premium Times, 21 August 2014. See also section 2.1 of this paper. 284 Europa World online, London, Routledge. House of Commons. Retrieved 01 July 2014 from http://www.europaworld.com/entry/ng 285 Europa World online, London, Routledge. House of Commons. Retrieved 01 July 2014 from http://www.europaworld.com/entry/ng 286 Europa World online, London, Routledge. House of Commons. Retrieved 01 July 2014 from http://www.europaworld.com/entry/ng 287 Europa World online, London, Routledge. House of Commons. Retrieved 01 July 2014 from http://www.europaworld.com/entry/ng 288 The Federal Capital Territory has its own High Court, Sharia Court of Appeal and Customary Court of Appeal. 289 Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, 1999 290 Zamfara, Kaduna, Sokoto, Kano, Bauchi, Katsina, Kebbi, Jigawa, Borno, Yobe, Niger and Gombe states. 291 For example, see: “Political Sharia? Human rights and Islamic law in northern Nigeria”, Human Rights Watch, September 2014 292 Jibrin. Ibrahim, “The Dynamics of Competitive Party Politics,” in Jibrin Ibrahim, Musa Abutudu, and Kelechi C. Iwuamadi, eds., Elections and the Management of Diversity in Nigeria (African Governance Report III, 2011) 293 J. Liebowitz and J. Ibrahim, “A capacity assessment of Nigerian political parties”, UNDP, January 2013 294 J. Liebowitz and J. Ibrahim, “A capacity assessment of Nigerian political parties”, UNDP, January 2013 295 “Nigeria’s opposition: a united front”, Economist, 2 August 2013 296 “Policies, what policies?”, Africa Confidential, 21 November 2014 297 International Crisis Group (ICG), “Nigeria’s dangerous 2015 elections: limiting the violence”, 21 November 2014, p5 298 “Profile: Nigeria’s Goodluck Jonathan”, BBC News Online, 11 September 2013. The President has a presence on Facebook and Twitter. 299 “Jury still out on record of accidental president”, Financial Times, 22 November 2011 300 “Profile: Namadi Sambo, Nigeria’s new vice-president”, BBC News Online, 18 May 2010 301 “Who’s who: Colonel David Mark – President of the Senate”, Africa Confidential, n.d.; “Jonathan faces the north”, Africa Confidential, 13 June 2014 302 “Nigeria’s Nuhu Ribadu in profile”, BBC News Online, 25 March 2014 303 “Nigeria’s Muhammadu Buhari in profile”, BBC News Online, 18 April 2011 304 His low profile may explain why several different spellings of his name are in circulation. B. Awoyemi, “Making a case for Pastor (Prof) Yemi Oshibajo to be chosen as the APC VP candidate”, saharareporters.com, 15 December 2014 305 “Who’s who: Mr Bola Ahmed Tinubu”, Africa Confidential, n.d. 306 Western oil companies have also been accused of complicity in corrupt oil deals in Nigeria. “Nigeria/Italy: follow the money”, Africa Confidential, 24 October 2014 307 “Letter from Africa: Will Emir Lamido Sanusi ruffle feathers?”, BBC News Online, 25 June 2014 308 Another powerful traditional ruler is the Sultan of Sokoto. 309 “Who’s who: Edwin Clark”, Africa Confidential 310 In April 2014, Forbes estimated Dangote’s net worth at US $24.4 billion. 311 “Who’s who: Mr Aliko Dangote”, Africa Confidential; S. Allison, “Cementing Africa’s future”, Good Governance Africa, 1 June 2014; for the work of his foundation, see the Dangote Group’s “touching lives” webpage. 312 International Institute for Strategic Studies, The Military Balance 2014, p451 313 International Institute for Strategic Studies, The Military Balance 2014, p451 314 Nigeria was among the top 10 contributors of troops to multilateral peace operations in terms of numbers of troops (excluding ISAF in Afghanistan) in 2013, according to SIPRI Yearbook 2014, figure 3.3 315 International Institute for Strategic Studies, The Military Balance 2014, p451 316 Foreign Affairs Committee, The UK's response to extremism and instability in North and West Africa, 21 March 2014, HC 86-I 2013-14, para 57 317 “Nigerian Armed Forces”, Defence Web, 7 October 2013 318 “Nigeria; why Jonathan sacked Ibrahim, Ihejirika, Ezeoba”, all Africa, 17 January 2014 319 “Why Nigeria holds back in Boko Haram fight”, Premium Times, 320 International Institute for Strategic Studies, The Military Balance 2014, p415, 451 321 Many media sources continue to use the term ‘Joint Task Force’. US State Department, “Nigeria Human Rights Report 2013”, p3 322 For further details, see sections 4.3 and 4.7 of this paper. 323 Testimony of Department of Defence Principal Director for African Affairs Alice Friend, Senate Subcommittee on African Affairs, #BringBackOurGirls: Addressing the Threat of Boko Haram, May 15, 2014. US policy towards Boko Haram is explored further in a Congressional Research Service report, Nigeria’s Boko Haram: Frequently Asked Questions, 10 June 2014, R435558 324 “Nigerian security forces deployed in north-eastern states likely to desert, raising risk of further Boko Haram expansion”, IHS Global Insight, 18 August 2014 325 “Why army holds back in Boko Haram fight”, Premium Times, 31 December 2014; “Nigeria sentences another four soldiers to death”, Anadolu Agency, 25 December 2014 326 “Nigeria’s vigilantes take on Boko Haram”, BBC News, 24 July 2013; “Nigerian vigilantes aim to rout Boko Haram”, Al Jazeera, 31 May 2014; Further examples of local and state use of the Civilian Joint Task Force can be found on Information Nigeria 327 “Boko Haram seizes army base in Nigeria town of Baga”, BBC News Online, 4 January 2015 328 “Boko Haram seizes army base in Nigeria town of Baga”, BBC News Online, 4 January 2015; “Boko Haram crisis: Nigeria’s Baga town hit by new assault”, BBC News Online, 8 January 2015 329 “Boko Haram crisis: African Union to discuss multinational force”, BBC News Online, 16 January 2015 330 “Foreign Secretary announces UK support following Ministerial on Boko Haram”, Foreign and Commonwealth Office, 12 June 2014 331 “Nigeria destroys 1,951 illegal oil refineries, arrests 1,857 in 2013”, Defence Web, 17 January 2014 332 “EU Naval Force, IMO warn of continued, although diminished, piracy threat”, Defence Web, 28 November 2014 333 J. Zenn, “Boko Haram: recruitment, financing, and arms trafficking in the Lake Chad region”, CTC Sentinel, 31 October 2014 334 E. Donnelly, “Nigeria’s child catchers”, The World Today, June/July 2014 335 R. Pantucci, “The ‘franchising’ of Boko Haram”, RUSI Newsbrief, 19 May 2014 336 M. Smith, “”Boko Haram is no ‘global terror’ group”, Guardian, 14 May 2014 337 M. Baca, “The tragedy of Borno state: local dimensions of Boko Haram’s insurgency”, African Arguments, 19 December 2014 338 Salafists believe that Muslim societies must be purified of modern values and systems and returned to those that reputedly applied during early Islam. 339 R. Pantucci and M. Cadoux-Hudson, “Nigeria’s opaque Jihad: Insurgency in Africa’s richest nation”, RUSI Analysis, 16 May 2014 341 E. Donnelly, “Nigeria’s child catchers”, The World Today, June/July 2014 342 See also section 4.3 of this paper. 343 “Boko Haram: army repels attack in Borno state”, BBC News Online, 14 January 2015 344 “Nigeria must brace for surge in Boko Haram attacks, analysts say”, dpa-AFX International ProFeed, 19 December 2014 345 “Special report: North-east Nigeria on the brink”, Nigeria Security Network, 2 September 2014; “Military arrests soldiers for being ‘moles’ for Boko Haram”, Vanguard, 14 October 2014 346 R. Pantucci and M. Cadoux-Hudson, “Nigeria’s opaque Jihad: Insurgency in Africa’s richest nation”, RUSI Analysis, 16 May 2014 347 “Boko Haram crisis: Nigerian archbishop accuses West”, BBC News Online, 12 January 2015 348 “What now after Nigeria’s Boko Haram ceasefire fiasco?”, BBC News Online, 3 November 2014 349 J. Zenn, “Boko Haram: recruitment, financing, and arms trafficking in the Lake Chad region”, CTC Sentinel, 31 October 2014 350 “Boko Haram’s large-scale attacks in Cameroon indicate protracted campaign of violence and severe kidnap and death risks”, IHS Global Insight, 29 December 2014 351 “Boko Haram seizes army base in Nigeria town of Baga”, BBC News Online, 4 January 2015 352 “Boko Haram seizes army base in Nigeria town of Baga”, BBC News Online, 4 January 2015; “Boko Haram crisis: Nigeria’s Baga town hit by new assault”, BBC News Online, 8 January 2015 353 “Nigerian town seized by Boko Haram ‘part of Caliphate’: leader”, news.yahoo.com, 24 August 2014 354 J. Zenn, “Boko Haram: recruitment, financing, and arms trafficking in the Lake Chad region”, CTC Sentinel, 31 October 2014 355 “Suicide bomber kills 20 Shia Muslims in Nigeria”, telegraph.co.uk, 3 November 2014 356 John Campbell, Nigeria: Dancing on the Brink (New York, 2013), pp132, 136. A Nigerian Senator, a former Borno state governor and an ex-Chief of Army Staff have been accused by various sources of being sponsors of Boko Haram. See: “How terror twists the vote”, Africa Confidential, 12 September 2014; “Australian negotiator insists Modo Sheriff Ihejirika sponsor Boko Haram, exonerates Buhari, el-Rufai”, Sahara Reporters, 31 August 2014; “In search of Dr Stephen Davis”, Daily Trust, 11 September 2014 357 R. Pantucci, “The ‘franchising’ of Boko Haram”, RUSI Newsbrief, 19 May 2014 358 A. Noakes, “Nigeria’s Boko Haram ceasefire deal: too good to be true?”, African Arguments, 22 October 2014 359 “The many deaths of Abubakar Shekau”, Africa in the News, Royal African Society, 3 October 2014 360 “Boko Haram”, Jane’s World Insurgency and Terrorism (posted 21 July 2014) 361 R. Pantucci, “The ‘franchising’ of Boko Haram”, RUSI Newsbrief, 19 May 2014; “Boko Haram”, Jane’s World Insurgency and Terrorism (posted 21 July 2014) 362 “Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND)”, Jane’s Terrorism and Insurgency Centre (posted 16 July 2014) 363 John Campbell, Nigeria: Dancing on the Brink (New York, 2013), p65-6 364 “Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND)”, Jane’s Terrorism and Insurgency Centre (posted 16 July 2014) 365 “MEND endorses Buhari’s presidential bid”, This Day, 7 January 2015 366 B. Mberu and R. Pongou, “Nigeria: multiple forms of mobility in Africa’s demographic giant”, migrationpolicy.org, 30 June 2010 368 B. Mberu and R. Pongou, “Nigeria: multiple forms of mobility in Africa’s demographic giant”, migrationpolicy.org, 30 June 2010 369 B. Mberu and R. Pongou, “Nigeria: multiple forms of mobility in Africa’s demographic giant”, migrationpolicy.org, 30 June 2010 370 B. Mberu and R. Pongou, “Nigeria: multiple forms of mobility in Africa’s demographic giant”, migrationpolicy.org, 30 June 2010 371 S. Akinrinade and O. Ogen, “Historicising the Nigerian diaspora: Nigerian migrants and homeland relations”, Turkish Journal of Politics, Winter 2011 372 Chukwuma Soludo, “Is Nigeria losing her 17 million diaspora?”, This Day Live, 4 February 2013 373 Chukwuma Soludo, “Is Nigeria losing her 17 million diaspora?”, This Day Live, 4 February 2013 374 B. Mberu and R. Pongou, “Nigeria: multiple forms of mobility in Africa’s demographic giant”, migrationpolicy.org, 30 June 2010 375 S. Akinrinade and O. Ogen, “Historicising the Nigerian diaspora: Nigerian migrants and homeland relations”, Turkish Journal of Politics, Winter 2011 376 “A Diaspora Commission?”, Nigerian Tribune, 15 July 2014 377 “Nigeria: diaspora bond in the offing”, Business Report (South Africa), 1 July 2014 378 House of Representatives’ Committee on Diaspora Affairs 379 Chukwuma Soludo, “Is Nigeria losing her 17 million diaspora?”, This Day Live, 4 February 2013 380 This is widely known as the ‘state of origin’ policy. See: R. Chikwem, “Lifting the veil of ignorance: The issue of discrimination, ethnicity and national integration in Nigeria”, n.d.; Chukwuma Soludo, “Is Nigeria losing her 17 million diaspora?”, This Day Live, 4 February 2013 381 “State of residence should replace state of origin – Atedo Peterside”, Premium Times, 16 May 2014 382 “Diaspora voting: still a long wait for Nigerians abroad”, New Telegraph. 6 April 2014 383 S. Akinrinade and O. Ogen, “Historicising the Nigerian diaspora: Nigerian migrants and homeland relations”, Turkish Journal of Politics, Winter 2011 384 S. Akinrinade and O. Ogen, “Historicising the Nigerian diaspora: Nigerian migrants and homeland relations”, Turkish Journal of Politics, Winter 2011 385 B. Mberu and R. Pongou, “Nigeria: multiple forms of mobility in Africa’s demographic giant”, migrationpolicy.org, 30 June 2010 386 ONS, Population by Country of Birth & Nationality, 2013 387 B. Mberu and R. Pongou, “Nigeria: multiple forms of mobility in Africa’s demographic giant”, migrationpolicy.org, 30 June 2010 388 B. Mberu and R. Pongou, “Nigeria: multiple forms of mobility in Africa’s demographic giant”, www.migrationpolicy.org 30 June 2010 389 www.nigeriadiaspora.com 390 John Campbell, Nigeria: Dancing on the Brink (New York, 2013), ppxx 391 “Ranking of military and police contributions to UN operations”, UN website, 31 July 2014 392 South Africa and Egypt have lodged rival claims for a permanent African seat on the Council. 393 “Focus on Nigeria’s response to ICJ ruling on the Bakassi Peninsula”, IRIN News, 15 October 2002 394 The Al-Qaida sanctions list [accessed 9 September 2014] 395 Ambassadors O. Oshiru and O. George, “Nigeria and the OAU/AU: A fifty years journey”, May 2013 396 “African Union: Dlamini-Zuma takes charge”, Africa Confidential, 20 July 2012 397 “African Union: South Africa’s volunteer force”, Africa Confidential, 7 February 2014 398 “Clash of the titans”, Africa Confidential, 24 October 2014 399 “Boko Haram crisis: African Union to discuss multinational force”, BBC News Online, 16 January 2015 400 W. O. Alli, “The role of Nigeria in regional security policy”, Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, Abuja, 2012, pp13-15, 77 401 “Monetary integration: Regional leaders set the benchmarks for a single currency”, Oxford Research Group, 2011 402 W. O. Alli, “The role of Nigeria in regional security policy”, Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, Abuja, 2012, p31 403 “Boko Haram crisis: African Union to discuss multinational force”, BBC News Online, 16 January 2015 404 ACP Group website 405 Nigeria’s Minister of Petroleum, Mrs Diezani Alison-Madueke, was elected president of OPEC in November 2014. 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