Oil reserves Development in world oil consumption

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Oil reserves



Development in world oil consumption



World proved reserves



Reporting of reserves can not always be trusted



Projecting future discoveries



Real discovery trend and production



“Peak oil”



Discoveries and production USA “Lower 48”



Discoveries and production Norway



Norway and UK creaming curves



Discoveries and production Saudi Arabia



Saudi Arabia: Ghawar ‘Ain Dar/Shedgum Area / Arab D resource depletion state 2004



Ghawar and the world

  • Ghawar has produced about 60% of all Saudi Arabian oil from 1951-2004 and still accounts for some 50% of the Saudi production

  • When Ghawar output declines, Saudi production will most likely have peaked

  • After peak in Saudi Arabia it is difficult to envisage a global increase in conventional oil production





Russian production and growth rate





Oil discoveries and production world total



All petroleum







IEA demand growth prediction



New production to satisfy demand



Composition of energy demand



Monthly production of cars in China





Developing countries’ consumption in perspective



Summary

  • 90% of world oil reserves are not audited

  • Consumption has exceeded new discoveries since 1980

  • Today 25% of the consumption is replaced by discoveries

  • Modern seismic was developed after 1960

  • Peak discovery world wide happened in the 1960s



Summary contn.

  • US (Lower 48) production peaked in 1971; predicted by King Hubbert in 1954

  • Norway production peaked in 2001; 2005 production below NPD estimate

  • Oil production outside OPEC and FSU seems to have peaked

  • Creaming curve for back dated reserves for regular oil indicated total global reserves of 2 trillion barrels

  • Approximately 1 trillion barrels is consumed to date



Summary contn.



Summary contn.

  • The Ghawar field found in 1948 has produced 60% + of Saudi oil, is now producing approx. 5 million bopd and is approaching its tail.

  • When Ghawar peaks, Saudi will have peaked and so will the world.

  • Indications are that the OPEC “swing production is about to be exhausted



Summary contn.




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