Oil reserves Development in world oil consumption
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02.11.2017
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Oil
reserves
Development in world oil consumption
World proved reserves
Reporting of reserves can not always be trusted
Projecting future discoveries
Real discovery trend and production
“Peak oil”
Discoveries and production USA “Lower 48”
Discoveries and production Norway
Norway and UK creaming curves
Discoveries
and production Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia: Ghawar ‘Ain Dar/Shedgum Area / Arab D resource depletion state 2004
Ghawar and the world
Ghawar has produced about 60% of all Saudi Arabian oil from 1951-2004 and still accounts for some 50% of the Saudi production
When Ghawar output declines, Saudi production will most likely have peaked
After peak in Saudi Arabia it is difficult to envisage a global increase
in conventional oil production
Russian production and growth rate
Oil discoveries and production world total
All petroleum
IEA
demand growth prediction
New production to satisfy demand
Composition of energy demand
Monthly production of cars in China
Developing countries’
consumption in perspective
Summary
90% of world oil reserves are not audited
Consumption has exceeded new discoveries since 1980
Today 25% of the consumption is replaced by discoveries
Modern seismic was developed after 1960
Peak discovery world wide happened in the 1960s
Summary contn.
US (Lower 48) production peaked in 1971; predicted by King Hubbert in 1954
Norway production peaked in 2001; 2005 production below NPD estimate
Oil production outside OPEC
and FSU seems to have peaked
Creaming curve for back dated reserves for regular oil indicated total global reserves of 2 trillion barrels
Approximately 1 trillion barrels is consumed to date
Summary contn.
IEA is a demand focussed agency, with
limited emphasis on resources
BP is not auditing the reserves reported in their annual statistical reports
USGS reported resources in the Arctic has uncertainties equal to the estimates for undrilled basins
With the exception of the Arctic and the Antarctic and a few politically closed areas, the oil and
gas potential is understood
Summary contn.
The Ghawar field found in 1948 has produced 60% + of Saudi oil, is now producing approx. 5 million bopd and is approaching its tail.
When Ghawar peaks, Saudi will have peaked and so will the world.
Indications are that the OPEC “swing production is about to be exhausted
Summary contn.
Peak means that production
can no longer be increased
; we have then produced about half of the oil
After peak the price of oil will be market driven
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