Earlier, you mentioned "mental states" as the second critical factor in modeling success. Could you explain what you mean by that? If you ask people to list their trading or investment problems, they are of two types—problems they don't own
and mental state control problems. Problems they don't own consist of blaming the markets, blaming floor traders or
locals, blaming insider trading, blaming their broker, or blaming their system for what goes wrong. We have a natural
tendency to blame something other than ourselves for what happens. Society promotes it. For example, the recent
media coverage of program trading virtually implies that investors who lost money in the stock market did so because
of this activity, rather than because of any fault of their own. Yet, when you blame something other than yourself,
you can continue to repeat the mistake because it was the result of something beyond your control.
The best thing an investor can do, when things go wrong, is to determine how he or she produced those
results. Now, I don't mean that you should blame yourself for your mistakes either. I mean that at some point in
time, for any situation, you made a choice that produced those results. Determine what that choice point was and
give yourself other options to take when you encounter a similar choice point in the future. Change the decision at
similar choice points in the future and you will change the results you get. And by imagining doing so now, you can
make it easy to select those alternatives in the future.
When people own their own problems, they discover that their results usually stem from some sort of mental
state. Common examples are:
•
I'm too
impatient with the markets.
•
I get
angry at the markets.
•
I'm
afraid at the wrong time.
•
I'm too
optimistic about what will happen.
These are just a few examples of mental state problems. Once you identify a mental state problem, you can
do something about it because this sort of problem is within your control. I've already mentioned how one can use
body posture, breaming, and muscle control to manipulate one's mental state. To try this out for yourself, go into a
shopping mall and notice how other people walk. Duplicate a dozen or so walks for yourself and notice how your
mental state changes with each one.
I'm not saying that controlling your mental state is the magic solution to trading success. It's just part of the
answer. But when you admit that the answer is within yourself, you've come a long way. The realization that you are
responsible for the results you get is the key to successful investing. Winners know they are responsible for their
results; losers think they are not.