Republic of turkey

IN CONCLUSION

We reached the end of the higher education strategy proposal developed for Turkey. However, at the same time it is a kind of beginning. It is a discussion of high standard to be started. The commission that has developed this strategy tried to choose the most appropriate knowledge, experiences and the most applicable suggestions to improve this study. However, it is thought that these are not the final words. It is believed that this is the starting point to start a discussion of high standard. It will be improved and enriched with the support of all parts of the society, the members of the faculty, students, and councils of civil service, business environment and political circles. In this study accomplished solutions are not suggested, it is expected to find a solution that is interrelated to the society and mostly accepted by everybody. As a solution it is suggested to tailor a dress for Turkey instead of buying a ready made.

An evaluation for a document that is about the previous situation of Higher Education Strategy of Turkey is being made. In addition, this document has a rich appendix part. The information that is given in the two parts is explained in a more detailed way than a strategy document. The reason of this is that the ones who want to add extra information to the document with their own ideas can easily reach the information that they want. The suggestions in the strategy are open to be developed and changed in deed. Besides, it is possible to add totally new suggestions to the prepared strategy. If the ones who want to make a contribution to the strategy send their comments to YÖK in a short, written form, it will be easy to evaluate them more systematically.

Bills on the Council of Higher Education and universities were discussed in the public domain in the near past. The attention focused on the sharing of the power in the related institution is the dominant tendency over these discussions. It is worthwhile that this point of view be maintained while discussing the strategy document, because we can firstly say that this is not a Bill. It is out of discussion. It suggests developments to be made in Turkey in the long run. Thus, there are a lot of novelties to add. The strategic choices, which will improve the perspectives, are the main points to be focused here.

This kind of an expectation for a discussion is reflected in the jargon of the strategy document. After the problem is analysed, strategic choices are supposed to include the possibilities and suggestions, when dwelling upon the strategic choices. After these discussions come to a satisfactory level, more definite strategic eliminations will be done.

ANNEXES

ANNEX 1. SCENARIOS RELATED TO THE CONTRIBUTION OF INCREASING SCHOOLING RATES ON THE HUMAN CAPITAL IN TURKEY

The two scenarios here are summarized from the study named Opportunity in front of Turkey (September 2004) prepared by Can Fuat Gürlesel for Education Reform Initiative and they have been changed slightly. This study develops two different scenarios according to increases in schooling rates. The second scenarios envisages a much more rapid development compared to the first.

First scenario: It is formed according to net schooling rates by years for each education level as stated in Table (1). Table (2) shows how the human capital between 24-44 years of age will change at the end of 2025 according to the first scenario.

Table (1) First Scenario

Education Levels	2005		2010		2015		2020		2025
	Popl.	Sch.%	Popl.	Sch.%	Popl.	Sch.%	Popl.	Sch%	Popl.	Sch.%
Pre-School	3,865	15	3,902	20	3,777	30	3,805	40	3,665	50
Primary Edu.	12,015	95	11,748	100	11,543	100	11,294	100	11,268	100
Secondary Edu.	5,425	55	5,314	65	5,171	75	5,124	85	4,936	90
Higher Edu.	5,540	35	5,328	45	5,257	50	5,064	55	5,077	60

Source: Can Fuat Gürlesel: ibid, page 93

Table (2) Projection for Education Level in 25-44 Years of Age Group in 2025 According to the First Scenario

Age Groups	Not Graduate		Primary Edu.		Secondary Edu.		Higher Edu.		Total Popl.
	Number	%	Number	%	Number	%	Number	%
25-29	-	-	970	15.0	2,470	38.2	3,019	46.8	6,459
30-34	-	-	1,631	25.0	2,448	37.5	2,447	37.5	6,526
35-39	-	-	2,350	35.0	2,398	35.7	1,962	29.3	6,710
40-44	354	5.0	3,030	42.8	2,408	34.0	1,297	18.2	7,089
25-44	354	1.3	7,981	29.8	9,724	36.3	8,725	32.6	26,784

Source: Can Fuat Gürlesel: ibid, page 94

The share of higher education graduates in 25-44 years of age group is 10.2% in 2005 whereas it will rise to 32.6% in 2025. Table (3) shows how the human capital profile between 25-64 years of age will change. Increase in human capital in this age group is more limited since 44-64 years of age group is not currently affected by the increase in schooling rates in twenty years projection. The percentage of higher education graduates in this age group will be 22.4%.

Table (3) Projection for Education Level in 25-65 Years of Age Group in 2025 According to the First Scenario

Age Groups	Not Graduate		Primary Edu.		Secondary Edu.		Higher Edu.		Total Popl.
	Number	%	Number	%	Number	%	Number	%
25-29	-	-	645	10.0	2,325	36.0	3,489	54.0	6,459
30-34	-	-	1,305	20.2	2,088	32.0	3,133	48.0	6,526
35-39	-	-	2,012	30.0	2,348	35.0	2,348	35.0	6,710
40-44	354	5.0	3,030	42.8	2,408	34.0	1,297	18.2	7,089
45-64	2,042	9.1	13,262	59.1	5,071	22.6	2,298	10.2	22,440
25-64	2,396	4.9	21,243	43.1	14,795	30.0	11,023	22.4	49,224

Additions have been made to Can Fuat Gürlesel: ibid, page 94

In order to project the human capital profile in 2025 according to the second scenario, net schooling rates are increased faster. Assumptions for schooling rates are given in Table (4).

Table (4) Second Scenario

Education Levels	2005		2010		2015		2020		2025
	Popl.	Sch.%	Popl.	Sch.%	Popl.	Sch.%	Popl.	Sch%	Popl.	Sch.%
Pre-School	3,865	15	3,902	20	3,777	30	3,805	40	3,665	50
Primary Edu.	12,015	95	11,748	100	11,543	100	11,294	100	11,268	100
Secondary Edu.	5,425	55	5,314	70	5,171	80	5,124	90	4,936	100
Higher Edu.	5,540	35	5,328	50	5,257	60	5,064	60	5,077	60

Source: Can Fuat Gürlesel: ibid, page 95

Developments in human capital profile according to these assumptions are given in Table (5). In accordance with human capital profile in 25-44 years of age group in 2025, percentage of higher education graduates is increased from 32.6% in the first scenario to 38.3%.

Table (5) Projection for Education Level in 25-44 Years of Age Group in 2025 According to the Second Scenario

Age Groups	Not Graduate		Primary Edu.		Secondary Edu.		Higher Edu.		Total Popl.
	Number	%	Number	%	Number	%	Number	%
25-29	-	-	645	10.0	2,325	36.0	3,489	54.0	6,459
30-34	-	-	1,305	20.2	2,088	32.0	3,133	48.0	6,526
35-39	-	-	2,012	30.0	2,348	35.0	2,348	35.0	6,710
40-44	354	5.0	3,030	42.8	2,408	34.0	1,297	18.2	7,089
25-44	354	1.3	6,992	26.1	9,169	34.2	10,267	38.3	26,784

Source: Can Fuat Gürlesel: ibid, page 96

Table (6) shows the projections related to the development in human capital profile in 25-64 years of age group. Percentage of higher education graduates, which is 22.4% in the first scenario increases to 25.6% in the second scenario. These scenarios clearly evidence that increases in schooling rates affect development in workforce capital profile with a certain time lag. For this reason, increases in schooling rates should be realized as soon as possible.

Table (6) Projection for Education Level in 25-64 Years of Age Group in 2025 According to the Second Scenario

Age Groups	Not Graduate		Primary Edu.		Secondary Edu.		Higher Edu.		Total Popl.
	Number	%	Number	%	Number	%	Number	%
25-29	-	-	645	10.0	2,325	36.0	3,489	54.0	6,459
30-34	-	-	1,305	20.2	2,088	32.0	3,133	48.0	6,526
35-39	-	-	2,012	30.0	2,348	35.0	2,348	35.0	6,710
40-44	354	5.0	3,030	42.8	2,408	34.0	1,297	18.2	7,089
45-64	2,042	9.1	13,262	59.1	5,071	22.6	2,298	10.2	22,440
25-64	2,396	4.9	20,254	41.1	14,240	28.9	12,562	25.6	49,224

Additions have been made to Can Fuat Gürlesel: ibid, page 96