Social and economic impacts of the Basin Plan in Victoria February 2017

16Expected future horticultural demands for water

Grapevines are the main irrigated horticultural crop in the southern-connected Basin, but there has been a recent decline in vineyard area. By contrast there has been a steady increase in the total area of tree crops, particularly almonds, since the Basin Plan commenced. The total area of irrigated grapevines peaked around 2006, before the Plan commenced, with the end of the wine boom.

In 1995/96, pears were the Goulburn Broken region’s main pome fruit, but declining market demand for pears and comparatively higher prices for other crops meant plantings were not replaced and production steadily declined. As pear production declined, apple production increased by 58% between from 1995/96 to 2012/13 when the Goulburn Broken region accounted for 70% of the value of Victorian apple production and 96 per cent of the value of Victorian pear production Victorian stone fruit production grew strongly between 1995/96 and 2005/06, but production declined by 21% for nectarines and 39% for peaches between 2005/06 and 2012/13 due to shortages in water allocations, drought, hail and frost, coupled with shrinking margins and reduced market demand for stone fruit, particularly for processing and canning. The Goulburn Broken region accounted for 55% and the North Central region 13% of the value of Victorian peach production (DEDTJR, 2014).

Revenue from fruit growing in the Goulburn Valley has increased over time although production volumes have reduced. For example, Goulburn Valley growers have planted trees at a faster rate due to the increase in density of plantings, and value of production increased by 120% from 2001 to 2011, which is faster than the rest of Victoria or Australia (APCG, 2013, cited by RMCG, 2013).

Nut tree plantings in the Victorian Mallee went from 1,900 ha in 1997 to 20,900 in 2015. By contrast grapevines went from 20,500 ha in 1997 to a peak of 25,600 in 2006 (shortly before the Basin Plan commenced) before declining, as a result of low wine prices, low water availability and high water prices, to 20,500 ha in 2015. Those same factors resulted in a vacant land peak of 20% in 2009 (Argus, 2016).

The grapevine story is better understood as a decline in dried grape plantings from 6,300 ha in 1997 to 3,000 ha in 2015, an increase in table grape plantings from 4,100 ha to 7,300 ha in the same period and an oscillation in wine grape plantings from 9,900 ha in 1997, through 15,600 ha in 2006 returning to 10,100 ha in 2015 (Argus, 2016). In effect, table grapes have replaced dried grapes, while the post 1997 increase in wine grape plantings has been reversed.

It is important to note that total water use per hectare for grapevines varies markedly with varieties and production systems. Many varieties of red wine grapes, in particular, were produced with small canopies with total irrigation requirements around 5 ML/ha. Traditional dried vine fruit production involved volumes up to 9 ML/ha while many table grape varieties are grown with large canopies with irrigation requirements in the order of 12 to 15 ML/ha. Almonds are being developed in growing systems using more than 14 ML/ha. Consequently, while the area of irrigated horticulture has grown significantly, irrigation intensity, in terms of ML/ha, has grown even more significantly since 1997.

In Table we multiply the area for each horticultural crop (Argus, 2016) by the maximum irrigation application rates outlined in DSE (2007), to arrive at total annual average horticultural irrigation demands in the Victorian Mallee of 587.4 GL. Applying the same approach to crop area data for South Australia, the Lower Darling and the NSW Murray (MDBA, 2015b) we arrive at a total there of 548.9 GL (workings available on request from [e-mail]). As shown in Table , when we combine this with RMCG’s (2016) estimate for average annual water use by horticulture in the GMID and the data recorded for Murrumbidgee horticulture in Chapter 8, we arrive at a grand total for average horticultural demand of 1,393.3 GL.

Using a different approach, RMCG (2016) arrive at a total of 1400 GL. Our figures therefore help to triangulate theirs.

Table : Estimated future annual average irrigation demand from mature existing horticultural plantings in the southern-connected Basin

Category	irrigation requirement at maturity for 2015 horticultural plantings GL
Total perennial and annual horticultural irrigation requirements in the Victorian Mallee	587.4
Total in the Lower Murray-Darling excluding the Victorian Mallee	548.9
Total GMID horticultural requirements (RMCG, 2016)	97
Total Murrumbidgee horticultural use (from Murrumbidgee Irrigation Annual Report – see Chapter 8)	160
Grand total	1,393.3

Table : An initial assessment of mature irrigation requirements of existing crops in the Victorian Mallee and some projections of future possible demand

Category	2009 area (ha)	2015 area (ha)	% change	Maximum application rate ML/ha	2009 Mature irrigation requirement ML	2015 mature irrigation requirement ML	2015 irrigation water requirement plus 75% restoration of vacant land ML	2015 mature irrigation requirement plus 75% restoration of vacant land plus NID proposals ML	2015 mature irrigation requirement plus 75% restoration of vacant land plus NID proposals plus due diligence ML
Almond	19,905	20,620	4%	14	278,670	288,680	288,680	316,400	365,640
Other nut tree		285		12	0	3,420	3,420	3,420	6,255
Wine grape	13,050	10,130	-22%	8	104,400	81,040	81,040	81,040	95,740
Table grape	5,730	7,295	27%	12	68,760	87,540	87,540	87,540	88,260
Dried grape	2,905	3,040	5%	8	23,240	24,320	24,320	24,320	57,320
Other grape	35	45	29%	8	280	360	360	360	360
Citrus	3,655	3,720	2%	12	43,860	44,640	44,640	44,640	45,840
Olive		3,625		12	0	43,500	43,500	43,500	43,500
Avocado		560		13	0	7,280	7,280	7,280	7,280
Stone fruit		580		12	0	6,960	6,960	6,960	6,960
Other fruit tree	565	155		12	6,780	1,860	1,860	1,860	1,860
unspecified fruit tree	4,980	60		12	59,760	720	720	720	720
Nursery		180		12	0	2,160	2,160	2,160	2,160
Woodlot		250		0	0	0	0	0	0
Misc.		20		0	0	0	0	0	0
Vacant Perennial horticultural land	6,680	7,215	8%	0	0	0	48,701	48,701	48,701
Vacant > 10 years perennial horticulutral land		475
Total area perennial crop land	57,505	58,255	1%
Maximum perennial horticultural irrigation requirements					585,750	592,480	641,181	668,901	770,596
Long-term perennial horticulture irrigation requirement allowing for continuous renewal (90% of maximum)					527,175	533,232	577,063	602,011	693,537
unspecified vegetables 2009	4,755			12	58,086	0	0	0	0
unspecified vegetables 2015		345		8.0	0	2,760	2,760	2,760	2,760
Asparagus		405		13	0	5,265	5,265	5,265	5,265
Carrot		2,590		12	0	31,080	31,080	31,080	31,080
Cucurbit		535		9	0	4,815	4,815	4,815	4,815
Potato		940		8	0	7,520	7,520	7,520	7,520
Other vegetable		455		6	0	2,730	2,730	2,730	2,730
Total vegetable irrigation requirements					58,086	54,170	54,170	54,170	54,170
Total long-term annual and perennial horticultural irrigation requirements					585,261	587,402	631,233	656,181	747,707

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