The main drivers of End-of-Life CFL flows are electricity demand (driven by demographics and infrastructure efforts to increase the electrification rate), household equipment rates and the lifespan of CFLs. Market penetration of fluorescent lamps is also driven by customer awareness on energy efficiency, equipment acceptance and tariff levels, which are mainly influenced by specific government programs and campaigns to promote energy conservation.
The total stream flow of End of Life CFLs in SSA is estimated at 60 million units per year by 2020 (median value of a simulation based on variables with a low end of 11 million units per year and a high end of 105 million units per year), with significant variations from one country to another, mostly depending on population and electricity coverage. Together, Nigeria and South Africa represent about half of that market potential.

Decision-makers in SSA are aware of the sanitary and environmental issues related to waste and of best practices, and especially of what is being done in Europe. However, they also point to systemic difficulties that are interlinked within a complex web of technical, financial and cultural intricacies. Regulations sometimes exist but are rarely properly enforced. A global lack of financial means results in inadequate investment. Authorities also have few qualified agents to work both in offices and in the field. They therefore focus on emergencies with little or no longer-term planning. Furthermore, infrastructure is inadequate in some cases: waste collection and proper operation of facilities are impeded by poor transportation and electricity infrastructure.
The African continent is experiencing rapid urbanization combined with development growth that add to the strain on its inadequate infrastructure, and has adverse effects on an already poor Solid Waste Management system. Roadside dumping and uncontrolled landfilling with open-air burning (sometimes within city limits) are frequent and put a huge strain on air and water quality. However, existing examples, some success stories and some failures to learn from show that high-potential initiatives for waste management exist and could flourish if they are adequately sponsored by the authorities and funded by international institutions, thus creating an adequate framework for success with a positive economic, social and environmental impact. The following table summarizes the feasibility of the treatment options mentioned above for the countries studied.
Country
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Engineered landfill
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Incineration
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Mercury powder extraction
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Recycling
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Nigeria
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Relevant: As an improvement on current practices
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Not relevant: critical governance and O&M issues
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Not relevant: governance issues for hazardous waste landfills
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Relevant: Suitable market size. Consortium and stakeholder contributions required.
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Senegal
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Relevant: As an improvement on current practices
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Not recommended: Regulation is weak; O&M issue
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Not relevant: Market size not suitable
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Not relevant: Market size not suitable
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Mali
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Relevant: As an improvement on current practices; density issue
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Not recommended: Regulation is weak; O&M issue
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Not relevant: Market size not suitable
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Not relevant: Market size not suitable
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Ethiopia
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Emerging: As an improvement on current practices
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Not recommended: Regulation is weak; O&M issue
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Not relevant: Engineered landfills are just appearing, hazardous waste landfills will take time
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Partly relevant: Market size is suitable, but organization and regulation might not be strong enough
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South Africa
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Already exists
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Partly relevant: existing engineered landfills already provide mitigation; regulation seems strong but 0&M might be an issue
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Relevant: Market size, regulation and organization are OK. Prior hazardous waste landfill required.
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Relevant: Market size, regulation and organization are OK.
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It has been shown that the emissions related to CFL waste management in SSA, both in the short term and in the long term, are much lower than other sources of mercury emissions, and in particular that CFLs strongly contribute to overall mercury emission reduction from electricity generation in coal plants.
The contribution of end-of-life CFLs to total mercury emissions in SSA is much lower than emissions from other activities (e.g. gold mining and coal power plants). CFL-related mercury emissions in SSA are more than 25 times lower than coal power plant mercury emissions in South Africa alone and 250 times lower than mercury emissions from gold mining in SSA. Even in the case of a large rise in CFL use in SSA (high-end estimates attained if all SSA countries achieve their national targets for electricity coverage), 2020 CFL-related emissions would still be 10 times lower than coal power plant mercury emissions in South Africa alone and 100 times lower than mercury emissions from gold mining in SSA.
Reductions in energy consumption due to the substitution of traditional bulbs with CFLs may lower mercury emissions from coal power plants, depending on each national context. In the United States, mercury emissions avoided from national electricity generation by CFL-induced energy efficiency are higher than direct mercury emissions from CFLs (cf. graph below). In South Africa, based on a similar case with conservative assumptions, mercury emission reductions are even greater: a 13 W CFL with an 8,000-hour lifespan replacing a 60 W Incandescent Lamp (IL) would avoid 12 mg of mercury emissions over its lifetime.
as a result of this analysis, and because SSA is faced with many other pressing environmental and sanitary hazards, it is tempting to set aside the management of mercury-related hazards stemming from MCL waste, it is still highly recommended to promote strong and sustainable market penetration of readily available high-quality MCLs with reduced amounts of mercury per MCL and a longer lifespan, either through direct regulation (setting high reference standards ) and/or by raising public awareness (including energy efficiency education campaigns or the mobilization of opinion leaders). With regard to the advent of mercury free technologies, decision-makers should keep an eye on developments in LED technology and anticipate an eventual market shift, although this is not expected to happen in the next few years.
It is also important to consider the following:
The improvement of overall waste management practices will have a positive impact on MCL end-of-life management;
The improvement of monitoring, specifically the lighting market (including imports), waste flows and mercury levels, is a prerequisite to an efficient management policy;
The improvement of mercury regulation and hazardous substances in general will create the right incentives for the development of an environmentally virtuous economy.
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