The international forecaster
On what he will do with his portfolio in reaction to yesterday’s move
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On what he will do with his portfolio in reaction to yesterday’s move: “I own corporate bonds and I recently, as I wrote, I pulled some bonds from Kazakhstan because Kazakhstan economically is a much sounder country than the United States or any European country. But it is in small doses. I wouldn't put all of my money in corporate bonds. They have an equity character. I also own equities still in Asia and as I pointed out already four months ago for the first time in my life I bought equities in Portugal, Spain, Italy and France because they were unbelievably distressed. I think what people overlook today is they look at markets but they don't look at what happens within the market. In the last 12 to 18 months the U.S. has massively outperformed European markets, Asian markets with a few exceptions and now some markets are relatively depressed. I could argue the Chinese stock market is now relatively depressed. So the asset allocators may move some money in Chinese stocks and then they can rally 10 percent to 20 percent.” “The fallacy of monetary policy in the U.S. is to believe this money will go to the man on the street. It won't. It goes to the Mayfair economy of the well-to-do people and boosts asset prices of Warhols…Very happy. Very good for the Fed. Congratulations, Mr. Bernanke. I’m happy. My asset values go up but as a responsible citizen I have to say the monetary policies of the U.S. will destroy the world.”
Hunger is the number one reason behind riot. There are other reasons also. These include poverty, oppression, disenfranchisement. Trampled down humanity fights back. It's, plain and simple. But, if there's a single factor that reliably sparks social unrest, it's food becoming too scarce or too expensive. So argues a group of complex systems theorists in Cambridge , and it makes sense. http://www.countercurrents.org/cc140912B.htm QE3 will not bolster global economy: Hong Kong official Secretary for Financial Services & the Treasury Prof KC Chan cautions that the US Government's third round of quantitative easing, or QE3, will increase stock market risks, and the uncertainties surrounding it will bring different risks to different markets. Speaking to the media today, Prof Chan said the global economy will not improve after the move by the US Federal Reserve to stimulate the American economy. The global economy is expected to slow down, as European and Asian economies falter. He said the Government will closely monitor QE3’s impact on Hong Kong’s economy and risks to our financial market, adding corresponding measures will be taken to tackle the issue. Meanwhile, Monetary Authority Chief Executive Norman Chan expects the measure will not have significant impact on Hong Kong’s interbank offer rate as the rate has been very low. He cautioned people to be prepared to tackle capital volatility and the increased risk of overheating in asset prices in Hong Kong. He said the authority will introduce further cooling measures when appropriate. Romney pulls punches in ABC News interview While his advisers continue to attack President Obama on foreign policy, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney has shifted his tone, refraining from drawing sharp contrasts with the White House on policy in the Middle East. In an interview with ABC News‘ “Good Morning America,” Romney declined to attack Obama on tension with Iran and Egypt. While he stood by his earlier confrontational comments on the White House response to attacks in Egypt and Libya, on Friday he merely called a controversial statement from the Cairo embassy “inappropriate.” He did not repeat his charge that the administration sympathized with the attackers. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently criticized the White House for not setting “red lines” short of weaponization before Iran, a public display of ongoing tension between the two governments over the issue. But Romney did not exploit that tension in this morning’s interview. “My red line is Iran may not have a nuclear weapon,” Romney said. “It is inappropriate for them to have the capacity to terrorize the world.”
After days of anti-American violence across the Muslim world, the White House is girding itself for an extended period of turmoil that will test the security of American diplomatic missions and President Obama’s ability to shape the forces of change in the Middle East. http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/16/world/middleeast/us-is-preparing-for-a-long-siege-of-arab-unrest.html?partner=rss&emc=rss&smid=tw-nytimes&_r=1 Obama’s ‘proud’ statements on changing US image may backfire In February, Obama said, “One of the proudest things of my three years in office is helping to restore a sense of respect for America around the world, a belief that we are not just defined by the size of our military.” Three years ago in Cairo…“I have come here to seek a new beginning between the United States and Muslims around the world; one based upon mutual interest and mutual respect; and one based upon the truth that America and Islam are not exclusive, and need not be in competition.” http://thehill.com/blogs/defcon-hill/policy-and-strategy/249651-obamas-proud-statements-on-improving-us-image-might-backfire U.S. Balks at GM Plan Government Is Reluctant to Sell Auto Stake at a Huge Loss There is also a political calculus. A deal at this time could be fraught for the Obama administration, which has maintained that the bailout saved hundreds of thousands of jobs…Huge losses on taxpayer investment in the auto maker's stock could tarnish the administration's overall record in recovering crisis-era bailout money…
U.S. officials accuse China of giving hundreds of millions of dollars a year in subsidies to its auto parts makers in order to boost its own exports… The administration’s action comes as several states with prominent auto-manufacturing industries have emerged as top battlegrounds in the presidential election…
President Barack Obama has accused China of illegally subsidizing its car industry, raising the specter of a trade war as the battle for The White House enters the final straight. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/china-business/9549155/Obama-complaint-against-China-raises-threat-of-trade-war.html Romney Talks Bluntly of Those Dependent on Government In one video segment, Mr. Romney described how his campaign is writing off “47 percent of the people” who will vote for Mr. Obama “no matter what.” He adds that those people “are people who pay no income tax” and says “so our message of low taxes doesn’t connect.” Mr. Romney said that “my job is not to worry about those people. I’ll never convince them they should take personal responsibility and care for their lives.”… Mr. Romney says that his campaign is concentrating on the “5 to 10 percent in the center” whom he describes as “thoughtful” when it comes to deciding who to vote for… Mr. Romney’s figure of 47 percent may come from the Tax Policy Center, which found that 46.4 percent of households paid no federal income tax in 2011…
The 8,786,049 workers taking federal disability in September is a net increase of 18,108 from the 8,767,941 workers who took federal disability in August. http://cnsnews.com/news/article/8786049-yet-another-record-americans-collecting-disability House Dems propose taxing equity trades to fund new federal programs Rep. Keith Ellison (D-Minn.) and six other House Democrats have introduced legislation that would impose a transaction tax on all stock, bond and derivatives trades made by Wall Street firms, which Ellison said would raise "billions" to pay for infrastructure and jobs programs… Under Ellison's Inclusive Prosperity Act, stock trades would face a transaction fee of 0.5 percent, bond trades would be charged 0.1 percent, and derivatives trades would be assessed a fee of .005 percent.
Government officials blame unfair competition from China for the collapse of solar panel manufacturer Solyndra, but such concerns didn’t stop the federal government from breaking stimulus program rules to use Chinese solar panels atop a federal building housing the offices of a senator, congressman and several agencies… http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/sep/17/lambasted-chinese-solar-panels-placed-on-governmen/ The Data Behind Romney’s 47% Comments According to the Census Bureau, 49% of Americans in the second quarter of 2011 lived in a household where at least one member received a government benefit…That’s up from 30% in the 1980s and 44.4% in the third quarter of 2008, a recent growth in part attributable to the bad economy of President Obama’s first term… http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2012/09/18/the-data-behind-romneys-47-comments/?mod=e2tw Mother Jones Releases Complete Video of Romney at Private Fund-raiser On Tuesday afternoon, Mother Jones magazine released the complete version of the video that showed Mitt Romney speaking to donors at a May 17 fund-raiser. http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/18/mother-jones-releases-complete-video-of-romney-at-private-fund-raiser/?smid=tw-nytimes Obama In 1998: "I Actually Believe In Redistribution" At an October 19, 1998 conference at Loyola University, Barack Obama spoke against "propaganda" that said government doesn't work and the need to "pool resources and hence facilitate some redistribution because I actually believe in redistribution." http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ge3aGJfDSg4 Father-daughter dances banned in R.I. as 'gender discrimination' Father-daughter dances and mother-son ballgames -- those cherished hallmarks of Americana -- have been banned in a Rhode Island school district after they were targeted by the American Civil Liberties Union. http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/la-na-nn-father-daughter-dances-gender-discrimination-20120918,0,2758778.story Food Prices To Soar After Mass Animal Slaughter Meat and dairy prices will hit record highs, contributing to the cost of food rising by around 15% next year, a report says. http://news.sky.com/story/987059/food-prices-to-soar-after-mass-animal-slaughter Fed’s Fisher Says U.S. Inflation Expectations Show Sharp Rise After 43 straight months of unemployment above 8 percent, the Federal Open Market Committee announced on Sept. 13 its third round of large-scale asset purchases since 2008. The FOMC for the first time didn’t set a limit on the amount the Fed will buy or the duration of purchases. Bernanke said that day at a press conference he’ll add to the record stimulus until achieving “sustained improvement” in the labor market. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-19/fed-s-fisher-says-u-s-inflation-expectations-rising.html Fed’s latest stimulus may have little impact on mortgage borrowers Banks say they are keeping rates high right now because lowering them any further would overwhelm them with customers. They say that over time, as volume thins out, rates could come down to attract new borrowers. http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/qe3-may-have-little-impact-on-mortgage-borrowers/2012/09/18/f6ee68f2-0116-11e2-9367-4e1bafb958db_story.html?wpisrc=nl_headlines FedEx Shipments are Pointing to Bleak Economic Times 
http://www.bloombergbriefs.com/2012/09/18/fedex-shipments-are-pointing-to-bleak-economic-times/ Mystery over gap in secret tapes of Mitt Romney's '47 per cent' fundraiser Mother Jones admits that 'one to two minutes' of the Republican nominee's embarrassing fundraising video may be missing Taping of the event may have been illegal, according to Florida law http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2205688/Mystery-minute-gap-secret-tapes-Mitt-Romneys-47-cent-fundraiser.html?ITO=socialnet-twitter-mailonline House passes new Buffett Rule The bill, labeled the Buffett Rule Act, passed by voice vote, meaning Democrats and Republicans agreed with it. Under the legislation, which would still need Senate approval, taxpayers could check a box on their taxes and send in a check for more than they owe to the IRS… http://www.washingtontimes.com/blog/inside-politics/2012/sep/19/house-passes-new-buffett-rule/ US Household Debt Rises, Largest Jump Since 2008 Household debt climbed $39.4 billion, the first gain in over a year, to $13 trillion in the second quarter, according to Federal Reserve data issued on Thursday -- just $2 trillion shy of the country's total yearly economic output. Americans' financial net worth retreated by over $300 billion to $62.7 trillion… The latest Census data showed median U.S. incomes fell 1.5 percent to $50,054 in 2011 after adjusting for inflation, the second consecutive annual drop.
A U.S. Senate committee memo said Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) used aggressive international tax maneuvers to avoid billions of dollars in taxes over the past three years. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-20/microsoft-avoided-billions-in-u-s-tax-senate-memo-says.html Slain ambassador Stevens said he was on al Qaeda list In the months leading up to his death, Chris Stevens, the U.S. ambassador to Libya, worried about constant security threats in Benghazi and mentioned that his name was on an al Qaeda hit list, a source familiar with his thinking told CNN. Stevens spoke about a rise in Islamic extremism and al Qaeda's growing presence in Libya. http://www.cnn.com/2012/09/20/world/anti-islam-protests/index.html?hpt=hp_t3 Obama Says He Can't Change Washington >From Inside The president said not enacting immigration reform legislation was his biggest failure, but went on to discuss his 2008 promise to bring change to Washington. "The most important lesson I've learned is that you can't change Washington from the inside. You can only change it from the outside," Obama said. Romney, who addressed the same Univsion group Wednesday night, immediately seized on the remark, calling it a concession by Obama that he failed to change Washington in the way he promised four years ago…"His slogan was 'Yes, we can.' His slogan now is, 'No, I can't,'" said Romney. " http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/OTUS/obama-change-washington-inside/story?id=17284397 Crocker: Taliban Infiltration Worse Than Estimated Taliban infiltration of the Afghan army and police is much worse than the U.S. military and NATO have admitted and was the main factor in the surprise move to limit contacts with Afghan security forces to curb insider attacks, former ranking U.S. officials in Afghanistan said. "I would put the percentage rather higher" than the 25% figure for enemy infiltrators and sympathizers that U.S. commanders have estimated, said Ryan Crocker, who stepped down as U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan in July.
The Iranian government is behind cyber attacks this week that have targeted the websites of JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America, NBC News is reporting, citing national security officials. The distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks, which involve overloading a site with requests, are "significant and ongoing" and intended to cause "functional and significant damage," a former U.S. official told NBC. BofA's consumer banking site was unavailable to some customers Tuesday, and JPMorgan Chase customers had the same trouble Wednesday.
With a nearly $1 billion government tax credit for the industry in doubt, the wind energy sector in the United States is on the brink of elimination, putting both thousands of jobs and the goal of promoting sustainable energy at risk. In existence since 2008, the tax credit is aimed at helping startups in the wind energy industry to get on their feet, allowing them access to the funds that they need to be successful in the face of stiff competition from both other energy sources and undercutting by their Chinese counterparts. Those challenges have seen about 10,000 jobs disappear in the past four years as wind energy companies shrink in order to survive, making the potential elimination of the tax credit when it comes up for renewal again on December 31, 2012 a crisis-level concern for those invested in the industry.
Anti-Islamic advertisements will go up across New York City’s subway system next week after a federal judge ruled that the city’s Metropolitan Transportation Authority could not legally refuse to host the signs on the basis of "demeaning" language. As early as next Monday, ten NYC subway stations will showcase adverts declaring, "In any war between the civilized man and the savage, support the civilized man. Support Israel. Defeat Jihad." The campaign was created by the American Freedom Defense Initiative (AFDI), an organization considered a hate group by the Southern Poverty Law Center watch group.
This week's stock recommendations merit some comment. There is an old Wall Street expression, " Don't fight the Fed". On Sept 13th the Fed announced that it will buy $40 billion of mortgage debt instruments a month for the rest of the year. They will do this until the economy improves & unemployment decreases substantially. Analysis estimate that this amounts to $85 billion in new money creation each month. This is now becoming known as "QE Infinity". We may be on the road to hyperinflation. Only much higher interest rates can change the path of the destruction of the U.S. dollar. The Fed has stated that interest rates will stay at present low levels at least until mid 2015. As a result of Fed action, please review IF Long--Short recommendations closely... Short positions may be dangerous unless well justified. Money management principals should be well enforced.
As of the close Thursday 09-20-2012. We advise subscribers to consider the following SHORT POSITIONS or PUT OPTIONS. The first price is where we recommend shorting, the second is the cover price & the third is today's closing price.
J.P. Morgan................(JPM).................36.92..........closed @ 41.40 on 09-13-2012 Bank of America.........(BAC)................7.72..............3.25.............................9.19 Citigroup.......................(C).....................28.86.........closed @ 34.45 on 09-13-2012 General Motors...........(GM).................20.65.............12.00............................24.42 Ford.............................(F)......................9.34...............4.50..............................10.44 Boston Beer................(SAM)..............111.05.............74.00..........................108.38 Molycorp......................(MCP)...............12.92.............5.00..............................13.23 Tyson Food..................(TSN)...............15.82..............6.00..............................16.56 Dean Foods................(DF)...................16.71..............8.00.............................16.23 Research in Motion...,(RIMM)...............7.80................3.00.............................6.89 Netflix...........................(NFLX)...............57.91............32.00............................58.73 Priceline......................(PCLN)..............562.85..........closed @624.00 on 09-13-2012 Washington Post........(WPO)..............348.26..........closed @ 361.76 on 09-20-2012 McDonalds..................(MCD)...............87.15.............71.00............................93.15 Hewlett Packard.........(HPQ)................16.78..............11.00............................17.76 Sears...........................(SHLD)..............52.90.............36.00.............................56.70 Harley Davidson..........(HOG)...............42.42.............28.00.............................44.26 MasterCard................(MA)....................420.95........closed @ 455.26...on 09-13-2012 Autozone.....................(AZO).................359.87... closed @ 369.96 on 09-13-2012 Facebook...................(FB).....................19.09..........closed @ 22.62.......on 09-20-2012 Visa.............................(V)......................126.70.........closed @ 134.98....on 09-13-2012 Goldman Sachs..........(GS)...................104.72........closed @ 120.67..on 09-13-2012
We advise subscribers to consider the following LONG POSITIONS: The first price is where we recommend buying, the second is the objective & the third is today's closing price.
Agnico Eagle..............(AEM)................45.32..................79.00.........................51.98 Goldcorp......................(GG)..................37.30...................54.00........................46.49 Newmont Mining..........(NEM)...............47.20..................65.00.........................56.62 Randgold Resources...(GOLD)...........120.09...............162.00......................120.09 Royal Gold.....................(RGLD)...........89.94..................121.00.......................94.05 Buenaventura Mines....(BVN)...............39.55..................52.00........................39.55 Freeport McMoran........(FCX).............36.00...................58.00........................40.93 Pretium Resources.......(PVG).............15.29...................22.00........................13.35 Alexco Resources.........(AXU)......if previously held ....9.00...........................4.51 Hellix Ventures...............(HLLXF)..if previously held........1.00.........................0.1700 Abington Resources......(ABIZF)....if previously held........1.00........................0.2126 " " in Canada .........(ABL-V)..........................................0.1450 Coca Cola......................(KO)..................39.62..................50.00........................38.64 Walmart..........................(WMT)...............73.85..................98.00........................74.75 Target..............................(TGT).................62.69.................67.00.........................65.40 United Armour..................(UA)................57.35..................82.00.........................57.05 Chevron...........................(CVX)...............112.63...............142.00......................117.85 Exxon Mobil.....................(XOM)..............88.20..................112.00......................91.52 Kinder Morgan...............(KMP)................81.16..................92.00.........................82.41 3M....................................(MMM)...............91.59.................101.00.....................93.58 CBS.................................(CBS)...............35.37...................47.00.......................36.70 Valero Energy..................(VLO)...............30.73...................48.00.......................32.14 Sherwin Williams..............(SHW).............142.00................185.00.....................148.09 Campbell Soup..............(CPB).................35.09..................52.00........................35.14 H.J. Heinz........................(HNZ)..................55.86..................78.00.......................56.47 Dollar General..................(DG)...................50.07...................71.00.....................52.45 Anheuser Busch.............(BUD)................83.35...................92.00......................87.00 Nike.................................(NKE).................97.75....................120.00...................96.72 Eli Lilly.............................(LLY)..................44.90....................56.00.....................47.02 Facebook........................(FB)....................22.62....................32.00.....................22.62 Buffalo Wild Wings........(BWLD)..............111.07.................135.00...................111.07 General Electric..............(GE)....................22.43.....................33.00....................22.43 Groupon............................(GRPN)..............5.13......................15.00......................5.13 Seadrill............................(SDRL)...............39.54......................53.00...................39.54 Marathon Petroleum........(MPC)...............53.37......................71.00...................53.37 Phillips 66.........................(PSX)................45.78......................67.00....................45.78 ConocoPhillips.................(COP)................57.59......................76.00....................57.59
Disclaimer: IF does Not make a market in any of any of these securities nor does it have any incentive relationship with any of the listed companies. IF does Not own any of the listed securities. All investors are encouraged to discuss all transactions with their financial advisors before making any purchases to be sure they fit their financial objectives and goals. Investors should understand all risks associated with buying & selling securities as well as options transactions. Investors should abide by money management principals & never risk more than they can afford to lose. Pretium Press Release Pretium Resources Inc.: Valley of the Kings Drilling Encounters Seven Intersections Grading Over 2,000 Grams Per Tonne Gold 09/18/2012 VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwire - Sept. 18, 2012) - Pretium Resources Inc. (TSX:PVG)(NYSE:PVG) ("Pretivm") is pleased to report that drilling in Brucejack's Valley of the Kings continues to intersect high-grade gold, with numerous assays grading over 2,000 grams per tonne gold. (See Table 1 below for assays.) Selected highlights from the Valley of the Kings include:
Hole SU-502 was collared on section 426612E, and the bonanza-grade gold interval noted above is located approximately 35 meters from the interval from hole SU-452 which intersected 41,582 grams of gold per tonne uncut over 0.50 meters. Hole SU-524 was collared on section 426312E, and the intervals noted above were intersected roughly three meters apart at a downhole depth of 124 meters. They are located approximately 46 meters from the interval from hole SU-150 which intersected 6,670 grams per tonne gold uncut over 0.50 meters. The Valley of the Kings now extends over 800 meters in strike length and is open to the east, west, and at depth. A plan of the Valley of the Kings highlighting the location of the holes noted above is located at http://media3.marketwire.com/docs/819764.pdf. Nine drills continue turning at Brucejack, with the 2012 Brucejack Exploration Program expected to be completed early in the fourth quarter. A Technical Session discussing the geological model of the Valley of the Kings and the results of the recently-announced Interim Mineral Resource Estimate for the Brucejack Project will be held on Wednesday, September 19th at noon (EST). More can be read at http://www.pretivm.com/ Fool's gold: Counterfeit bars turn up in New York A jeweler in Manhattan’s Diamond District learned the hard way that all that glitters is not gold. Ibrahim Fadl, a chemical engineer who owns a business near 47th Street and Fifth Avenue, bought four 10-ounce gold bars and decided to check them out further since he heard counterfeits were making the rounds, MyFoxNY.com reports. Fadl, who paid $100,000 for the merchandise, drilled into several of the bars and found gray tungsten, which has nearly the same density as gold, making it difficult to detect. The same thing reportedly happened in Great Britain earlier this year, and finance blog ZeroHedge.com reported that in 2010 German refiner W.C. Heraeus claimed to have received a 500-gram bar from an unnamed bank that proved to be filled with tungsten. http://www.foxnews.com/us/2012/09/19/new-york-jeweler-duped-into-buying-100g-worth-fake-gold-bars/ Discount Gold & Silver Trading For the best in pricing and service for gold and silver coins, call Melody at 1-800-375-4188. Be sure to listen to DGST live on Short-wave 7.490Mhz M-F 4:00PM ET, and 9.880 MHz . Online listen to archives at dgscoins.com and American Voice Radio Call 1-800-375-4188 or visit the Web site at dgscoins.com or email us at: discountgoldandsilver@yahoo.com Discount Gold & Silver Trading Co. provides all forms of precious metals including gold, silver platinum and palladium whether you are buying or selling. Our inventory includes but not limited to the American Gold, Silver, Platinum Eagle and numismatic products including rare, investment and circulated coins. Silver dollars, silver bars, rounds are on hand for the silver investor. Foreign gold is also available. Call for information regarding your precious metal gold and silver IRA. 1 800 375 4188.
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