How long did that environment last? Until the consolidated tape in 1975. Now there is a lot more competition; the people on the trading desks are
much brighter. Another change is that retail buyers and sellers have diminished greatly in importance. The market
has become institutionalized. Individuals buy stock through mutual funds. Brokerage firms don't sell customers stocks
so much as they sell those horrible mutual funds and other awful things they call "financial products."
Perhaps the most important change is that the world has become much more short term oriented. All sorts of
people who used to be investors are now traders. The institutions now define themselves as enterprises whose goal is
to achieve the highest rate of return, when they used to define themselves as long-term investors. People's
confidence in their ability to predict secular trends has greatly diminished. In 1967, it would be typical to see a report
by a brokerage firm estimating McDonalds' per share earnings up to the year 2000. Those people thought they could
estimate long-term earnings because companies were growing in a stable and predictable way. They believed in
America and steady growth. Today, stocks don't lend themselves to the same type of secular analysis.
The implication of secular growth trend analysis not having worked in the 1970s and 1980s relates to the
question of trading. In the 1950s and 1960s, the heroes were the long-term investors; today, the heroes are the wise
guys. There are people like Goldsmith, who lauds the virtues of capitalism. He talks about "what I did for Goodyear."
What did he do for Goodyear? He was in there for seven months, made eight zillion dollars for himself, and left the
management after taking greenmail. He talks about what he did for Goodyear, because he is uncomfortable and has
to somehow associate himself with the capitalist process. He and these other people have to bitch and moan about
management, but they don't know their ass from their elbow about running companies. With the breakdown of certain
laws, people are allowed to do things they weren't allowed to do before.