The U. S. Army Future Concept for the Human Dimension

2-4. The Domestic Environment

When we assumed the Soldier we did not lay aside the citizen.

George Washington
As a player on the global scene, the U.S. responds to the global trends that shape the international political, social, economic, and security environments. At the same time, the U.S. is experiencing many of these same trends internal to our Nation. Together, these external and internal influences shape the future U.S. domestic environment. This environment in turn, shapes the human capital that forms the human dimension. Appreciation of the future domestic environment and its implications for the physical, cognitive, and moral components of the human dimension is essential.
Globalization
The U.S. from the beginning has been one of the drivers of globalization and one of the leading benefactors of its economic and social benefits. There is a real danger that the U.S. is losing its economic and military dominance, and, along with it, its preeminent position as leader of western civilization. The cold war provided a basis for a clearly articulated national security policy. The competition between the democratic West and the communist, largely Soviet, bloc nations motivated the people of the U.S. to become world leaders in S&T, industry, manufacturing, and education. Since our perceived victory in the cold war, the trends have reversed and statistics indicate that we have lost much of this leadership. As global trends raise the level of the U.S.’ economic, political, and even military competition, the domestic environment continues to challenge its ability to meet that competition.
Demographics and Immigration

One effect of globalization and the proliferation of information technologies is the awareness by the oppressed and poverty stricken that their plight is not universal. Globally, this ignites large migrations from depressed areas of the world to those areas perceived to offer greater economic opportunity and social justice. While the U.S reputation as the world’s leading democracy may have suffered from recent events, it remains a favored destination for immigrants, legal and illegal. Though the U.S. acknowledges its character as a nation of immigrants, unchecked and uncontrolled illegal immigration has a negative impact on U.S. social, legal, medical, and educational systems. With an additional 400,000 to 700,000 immigrants illegally entering the U.S. every year, the stress on these systems will continue to grow.³⁹ Minorities comprise about one-third of the U.S. population. With 54 percent of immigrants coming from Mexico, Central, and South America, Hispanics have become the largest single group.⁴⁰ Increasingly, immigrants are forming ghettos where assimilation into the larger U.S. society is unnecessary, and, for some, undesirable.

The Hispanic immigrant population, once centered in the border states of the Southwest U.S., has begun to migrate across the country for the same reason that motivates global migration: economic opportunity. The U.S. Hispanic population will disperse more than is currently the case, even as several states in the Southwest region of the U.S. might possibly have a Hispanic majority by the 2015-2024 timeframe.⁴¹
The U.S. has also seen a flow of people from rural areas into the urban environment. The reasons for this shift are many and diverse, but can ultimately be attributed to the same bottom line—the perception that urban centers offer greater opportunity for economic well-being and a more favorable social climate.
People born between 1980 and 2000 will have the greatest influence on the nature of the Army in 2015-2024, either as experienced Soldiers or new recruits. These learners belong to a generation known by several names including the Millennials.⁴² Although each millennial is an individual with unique characteristics, when viewed collectively certain broad conclusions can be drawn about them as a generation. Ethnically and culturally, they are a diverse generation. According to the Washington Post, “Forty-five percent of the nation's children under age 5 are racial or ethnic minorities. The percentage is increasing mainly because the Hispanic population is growing so rapidly. The country as a whole is 33 percent minority.”⁴³ Due to these and other changing demographics, the use of languages other than English is common. Americans are more tolerant of other languages now, whereas assimilation was the norm in the past.
Socially, “[the millennials are] the ‘Babies on Board’ of the early Reagan years, the ‘Have You Hugged Your Child Today?’ sixth graders of the early Clinton years, and the teen contemporaries of Columbine. They are the children of the No Child Left Behind Act of 2001 and the first generation to grow up in the post 9/11 world.”⁴⁴ Their structured lives included parents shuffling them from one activity to another all under the watchful eyes of teachers, coaches, tutors, and music instructors. Wide-ranging child protection laws and safety products that came out of the 1980s have made millennials one of the most sheltered generations. Consequently, they have emerged as a tolerant, pragmatic, ambitious, and optimistic group. They believe themselves to be influential and unique. They are familiar with all things digital, having grown up immersed in computer games, MP3 players, DVDs, digital video recorders, cell phones, and the Internet.⁴⁵ Their values are not constant, but are variable according to the exigencies of the moment. Their perception of right and wrong will probably differ from their leaders. The majority of high school students freely admit to lying, cheating, and stealing, yet see nothing wrong with their ethics and character.⁴⁶ These factors if left unchanged will have a major impact on future recruiting and training policies.
Education
Education systems in the U.S. must continuously adapt to meet the needs of the community and the Nation. In the future, a growing population within a complex and fluid demographic environment will increasingly challenge a school district’s capacity to provide resources and innovation in developing techniques to educate its children. Factors such as migration into urban areas in search of economic opportunity put additional demands on school systems already short of resources and qualified teachers. Recent immigrants and first generation children speaking a language other than English in the home create a demand for English-as-a-second-language instruction that further taxes existing resources. Even well-funded suburban schools may find it difficult to engage children accustomed to an environment of constant stimulation, starting with television and video games, who may find traditional education venues dull and boring. When this generation begins to serve in the military, the Army will face the challenge of training, educating, and in some cases, socializing these young adults. To absorb recruits successfully across the entire range of qualified candidates, the Army must be willing and able to apply the most advanced techniques of learning, training, and education, supported by the latest S&T enhancements and augmentation. The traditional one-size-fits-all basic training and advanced individual training programs may not be adequate to meet this challenge.
This growing and diverse population has meant an increased challenge for the education systems of the U.S. By many measures of success, the U.S. is failing to meet the challenge. At the elementary level, only 72 percent of children aged 12-17 are able to perform at a level appropriate for their age.⁴⁷ Children in poor communities fare worse. The U.S. literacy rate is declining.⁴⁸ Ranked against other developed countries, U.S. children do poorly in math and science and fall at the bottom in advanced physics.⁴⁹ At the graduate level, the number of U.S. students pursuing advanced degrees in hard sciences fails to meet projected needs for those skills. A politically charged debate as to the reasons behind this failure remains unsettled, but the consensus holds that the U.S. is losing ground among other industrialized nations with regard to the overall educational standard of the population.
The Economy and Energy
Though the U.S. economy is losing its relative dominance as a global power, it remains the world’s largest and most productive economy.⁵⁰ Yet even as changing demographics increase the demand for employment, education, medical services, and other services, other global trends serve to stifle continued growth.
The economic aspects of globalization have contributed toward a dramatic shift from an industrial age manufacturing domestic economy to an information age service-based economy trading in processes and knowledge. While competing with global competitors for skilled science, technology, and engineering professionals, the U.S. finds itself with a surplus of skilled and unskilled labor. High-paying manufacturing jobs, such as those in the auto industry, are disappearing at an alarming rate while a demand for low-paying jobs, such as those in agriculture and construction, grows. This contributes to a growing income gap.
The rapid increase in the cost of energy has put a damper on economic growth. The rising cost of oil and natural gas affects virtually every aspect of our society and individual lives. As an increasing share of the budget, both public and private, goes toward energy needs, the portion available for other required services can shrink. Efforts to increase supply clash with environmental concerns of air pollution, greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide emissions, loss of natural habitats and forests, vegetation, wildlife protection, conservation of resources, and others. Efforts to decrease demand enjoy some local limited success, but have minimal impact on the macro perspective of energy supply and demand. Energy costs will continue to consume a growing share of our national economy.
Climate Change
While the debate concerning the cause of global warming continues, its existence is beyond debate. Climate change appears to contribute to the frequency and intensity of extreme weather and natural disasters. Whether climate change is directly responsible for such storms as Hurricane Katrina or not, we must acknowledge the reality of rising temperatures and changing climatic conditions in the U.S. and be prepared to respond to large-scale humanitarian issues, from drought to flood to environmental health crises.
Information
The U.S. has benefited significantly from the proliferation of information technologies and their use in global commerce. However, universal access to information technologies has stimulated economic competition. The internet enables outsourcing of support and services and levels the playing field in the international marketplace. The U.S. technological edge is eroding as China, India, and others exploit their cheap labor to gain a competitive advantage over U.S. technology industries and related services.

Largely, Americans enjoy access to these technologies for domestic financial and business purposes as well as a robust entertainment function. However, a downside to universal access to information technologies has emerged in the form of cyber crime. Not only does the internet enable direct fraud and theft, but it also serves to enable other criminal activities, including drugs, gambling, cyber-stalking, and pornography.

Information technology affects the security environment in multiple ways. It strengthens niche ideologies and violent movements or communities of interest. It contributes to the spread of technology and other information used by extremists, and it complicates strategic communications and information operations by providing multiple sources of information.
Health and Fitness
The Soldiers of the future are the children of today. A simple review of any article on America’s current obesity epidemic points to problems for the future Modular Force. From 1980 to 2000, the number of overweight children in the U.S. tripled from five percent to 15 percent.⁵¹ In 2003, almost two thirds of high school students were not physically active during physical education. While many government agencies are working to reduce or even reverse this deadly trend, American popular culture seems less and less concerned. A 2006 study Center for Disease Control report highlighted the accelerated pace of obesity incidences. In 2000, 22 states reported 20 percent or more of their population was clinically obese, and one state, Colorado, was at less than 15 percent. By 2005, all 50 states had obesity rates above 15 percent, and only three states reported obesity rates of less than 20 percent of the population, compared to 17 states reporting over 25 percent of the population as obese (fig 2-2).⁵² Overlay on these statistics the need for our future Soldiers to perform in a physically demanding, emotionally stressful operating environment, and the challenge the Army faces in developing Soldiers’ physical performance is readily apparent.


Figure 2-2. Obesity Rates
With a few temporary exceptions, the U.S. has enjoyed an ever-improving quality of life throughout its history. By some measures, this trend has slowed but has not reversed, though the overall health of the population is increasing. However, there is a decrease in the health and fitness in some segments of our population. This stems principally from two phenomena. One associated with our youth—a propensity to indulge in an excess of comfort and convenience, and one with our aged—an increasing lifespan. A fast food diet and a tendency toward passive entertainment (video and electronic games) contribute to climbing obesity rates for 10-17 year olds throughout the Nation, and estimates indicate that only 30 percent of U.S. adults exercise.⁵³ As they age these adults are increasingly afflicted with heart disease, cancer, stroke, respiratory disease, and injury. Sophisticated and expensive medical capabilities have increased our lifespan, but have been unable to eliminate the infirmity that comes with advanced age. While people are living longer, there is an accompanying increase in chronic conditions and enduring pain associated with age. Treating this population consumes 16 percent of today’s gross domestic product and this demand will continue increasing to 2015 and beyond.⁵⁴
Science and Technology (S&T)
Complacent with its success in the cold war and comfortable with its reputation as the world’s sole superpower at the end of the last century, the U.S. was ready to sit back and enjoy the fruits of its success. Along with the peace dividend and a dramatic drawdown of military forces came a loss of a sense of urgency to maintain a dominant S&T posture. When the world’s economies began to experience the benefits of globalization and the world marketplace, emerging competitors suddenly had the means to invest in their own S&T research. Today, 70 percent of S&T research occurs outside of the U.S., and the U.S. share continues to diminish. While the U.S. remains a leader in innovation and advanced technology, it can no longer claim dominance. U.S. S&T communities must now compete for investment and profit with growing economies around the world such as those of China, India, and South Korea. While many U.S. institutions, commercial, educational, and governmental, remain at the leading edge of S&T developments, we cannot depend on quality indefinitely trumping quantity. Furthermore, as much of the research and development of advanced technologies emerges from commercial entities, the U.S. ability to protect that technology in the interest of national security suffers from a determination and a requirement of those entities to derive a profit from their investment. This results in a proliferation of advanced technologies that further erodes the U.S. ability to maintain a global technological dominance into 2015-2024.