The working group report
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- Bu səhifədəki naviqasiya:
- 1.2. Increase in World Trade and Tonnage
- Growth of World Merchant Fleet
- Projected number of vessels in 2015 Tanker 2,274
- 3,359 Tanker >= 10000and 3,397 10.46
- 10.46 1 358 Dry Cargo
- Dry Cargo >= 500 and 4,763 10.46 1
- Ferry >= 500 gt 403 10.46 1 445
- Passenger >= 1600 gt 1,107 10.46 1
- 1.3. Supply of Seafarers – Rise in Demand for Officers and Oversupply of Ratings.
- Projected Demand for Seafarers, Benchmark Scenario
- Alternative Demand Scenarios
- 1.4 Indian Seafarers’ Population
- Total 82000
- Indias Share of the Global Sea-going Employment (Annexure I and II)
Chapter 11.1 Introduction A bustling and densely populated coastline over 7000 kms in length and a long maritime history has established India's position in the global maritime league. But her claim to maritime pre-eminence rises from her ability to supply well-trained and competent seafarers to an international client base. Indian seafarers have created a vast technical know-how pool in ship operation and management, and many individuals have risen to positions of global entrepreneurial leadership. Our knowledge base has also added great value to the functioning of the IMO and other organizations with leadership in and links to international shipping. Given India's impressive record in conducting formal training for merchant navy personnel since 1927, and the rising world-wide acceptance of Indian seafarers as being efficient and cost-effective, when the global shipping industry entered the current boom phase towards the end of the last century, and the BIMCO/ISF Manpower Report 2000 projected a worldwide shortage of an estimated 4%, or 44,000 officers, India positioned itself as a major manpower supplying nation to the maritime industry. Recognizing that, with the benefits of a structured and well-rounded secondary schooling system, good quality technical training, skills in communicating in the English language and ability to co-exist with communities with different lingual and cultural backgrounds, Indians are uniquely endowed to take up the major share of seafaring posts on board the world merchant fleet. As a result of the Central Government’s initiatives, maritime training, hitherto a preserve of the public sector, was thrown open to private investment. The number of marine training institutions rose from a figure of 4 in 1998, to 128 in 2005. They offer a wide variety of nautical and engineering courses that have been designed to international and industry standards. The Directorate General of Shipping maintains a system of inspections to ensure the quality of training. At the end of 2005, India's share of global maritime manpower rose to 26,950 officers and 75,650 ratings comprising an estimated 6% of the world’s seafarers. 1.2. Increase in World Trade and Tonnage The boom in the shipping industry, thanks to a sharp increase in international trade, has continued unabated in the first part of the current decade, and between 2000 and 2005 the global fleet has risen by 4.5% with an estimated 48,500 vessels operating at the end of 2005 (Source: BIMCO/ISF Manpower Report and Update 2005). Expecting further growth in demand for shipping, shipowners have placed a record number of new building orders with shipyards throughout the world, and this tonnage will be delivered over the next five years. Growth of World Merchant Fleet
(BIMCO/ ISF Reports Manpower updates) Forecasts for the future, in assessment of global economic and merchandise graphs, see the growth in shipping continuing for at least another five years. While it is difficult to come across definitive projections, most economists appear to believe that the industry will grow at a rate anywhere between 0.5% and 1.5% per annum till 2005. This has obvious and positive` implications on manpower demand and maritime training policy. 1.3. Supply of Seafarers – Rise in Demand for Officers and Oversupply of Ratings. According to the BIMCO/ISF Manpower 2005 update, the shortfall of around 4% in the officer ranks predicted in 2000 was estimated to have marginally reduced to around 2% by 2005. Despite an increase in the number of entrants into the profession, this shortage in the supply of officers has persisted due to two factors. (i) a substantial proportion of the new tonnage comprised of larger ships, requiring larger complements to operate them, and (ii) the accelerated decline in the number of OECD officers, putting pressure on supply of properly trained and certificated officers from other regions to replace the OECD nationals. In the case of ratings, however, given the persistent over-supply position over the past decade, and only a marginal increase in demand, there continued to be surplus of more than 1,35,000 ratings in 2005 The 2005 BIMCO/ISF Update estimates that with an assumed annual growth rate of 1% in the global fleet, and a ‘conservative’ estimated growth rate of 0.5% in the demand for officers and just a little less than that for ratings, there will be a requirement for an additional 23,000 officers and 21,000 ratings over the next decade. With a higher fleet growth rate of 1.5% per annum, the requirement increases to 44,000 officers and 44,000 ratings over the same period. In the largest demand scenario, with 1.5% increase per annum, no reduction in manning scales, and an increase in back up levels to cater to increased shore leave and additional shore-based training, the requirement increases to 62,000 officers and 69,000 ratings, and the total estimated workforce to 538,000 officers and 655,000 ratings by the end of 2015. Projected Demand for Seafarers, Benchmark Scenario Figures’ 000s
Source : 2005 BIMCO/ISF Update Alternative Demand Scenarios Figures’ 000s
Source : 2005 BIMCO/ISF Update Depending upon the actual growth rate in the global tonnage, manning scales and policies, there is a global need to train and supply anywhere between 44,000 and 131,000 new entrants over the next decade. 1.4 Indian Seafarers’ Population 1.4.1 Before we move on to studying the implications of this figure on the strategy and targets for maritime training in India, it would be necessary to know the number of Indian Seafarers. Unfortunately, a firm database is still in the process of creation, and only rough estimates are available. The Indian National Shipowners’ Association (INSA) estimated in July 2006 that around 9,000 Indian officers and 21,000 ratings were employed in the national fleet and around 18,000 Indian officers and 34,000 ratings on foreign flag ships. This translates to a grand total of about 27,000 Indian officers and 55,000 Indian ratings active in sea-going positions globally, i.e. a total of 82,000 active Indian seafarers in July 2006. This table does not differentiate between the various categories of officers. INSA TABLE
Indian National Database of Seafarers (INDOS) contains a total of 1,22,400 entries, of which there were around 27,000 nautical and engineering certificated officers and 30,000 ratings in October 2006. Besides this, its database has registered nearly 18,000 officer trainees, 26,500 rating trainees and 22,000 officers of other categories (mainly Electrical, Radio, Medical, Catering Officers, Fitters, Welders, Pursers, etc.). Some 20,350 registrations are still being processed by INDOS. This number may be presumed to be equally distributed among the categories of officers, ratings and trainees. This takes us to 100,000 seamen, about 18,000 more than the INSA calculations and additionally a trainee pool of 44,000 trainees. We can reconcile the INDOS figures submitted by the industry and trade, if we presume that an estimated 18% of certificated officers and ratings of those registered do not actively sail on ships (retired, deceased, engaged ashore, etc.). Prima facie, it would appear that all the registered 27,000 Indian nautical and engineering officers are employed, while it seems likely that the total of 55,000 sea-going Indian 'ratings' listed by INSA would comprise of the 30,000 INDOS registered ratings, with 'officers of other categories', trainees and 'unregistered' seafarers making up the remaining 25,000 'ratings'. From this table, adding up all certificated officers and ratings, we obtain a total sea-going population of about 79,000. Allowing for about 15,000 active seafarers still to register with INDOS, out of the 20,350 registration still being processed, the total seafaring population would come to about 95,000, about 8,000 more than estimated by INSA. INDOS TABLE
Given that the share of India's manpower was about the same in 2000, these figures come as a bit of a disappointment. It would suggest that the infrastructure built up has not been able to push as many seafarers into the profession as first glance at the increasing intake strength would suggest. An examination of the figures would isolate three main reasons - firstly, the intake capacity of pre-sea candidates in the new private institutes has increased substantially only in the last three years, and their candidates have not yet passed out in sufficient numbers; secondly, the shortage of sea time training berths creates a bottleneck in the throughput that makes the intake capacity or the numbers graduating irrelevant; and thirdly, the attrition rate, which has been estimated at 15%, and sees a large number of Indian seafarers quitting the sea at about the age of 45 years. Yüklə 2,67 Mb. Dostları ilə paylaş:
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