Triple Crunch Log Jeremy Leggett

British solar firms lose business and staff as DTI suspension in grants bites. “It's a complete nightmare. I have had to lay four people off and have not had a single order in seven weeks,” says Sean Cavendish, head of Sunpowered. “This stop-start is ridiculous and is frustrating for the whole industry.” “We were getting 20-25 inquiries a week for our systems. Now we are down to three or four. We have not taken any domestic orders for seven weeks,” says Jim Kenney, head of Chelsfield Solar. “The DTI's petulant child approach is ridiculous. I have all these skilled people and am having to redirect them into non-renewable work to save their jobs.”

National Audit Office criticises Whitehall on climate action in own buildings. The NAO warns that David Miliband's ambitious target for a carbon neutral Whitehall by 2012 and to cut emissions by 30% by 2020 will be impossible to achieve unless changes are made to the £3bn a year spent building and refurbishing government offices.

20.4.07. Norway plans to be the first carbon neutral country, with zero net emissions by 2050. This makes it the number one in the promises stakes. Britain has committed to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 60% up to 2050, California has committed to 80%, and both Sweden and Iceland have pledged to stop oil imports by then. Europe pledges 20% cuts by 2020 and by 30% if others make similar cuts.

23.4.07. China becomes a coal importer for the first time this quarter, despite being number one global producer: at 2.38 bn tonnes mined in 2006, about twice the US, which is number two producer. Mines in southern China have been shut because of accidents, and are too far from markets in the north. Imports are from Indonesia and Australia.

24.4.07. Ten US is ten steps from a descent into fascism, Naomi Wold says. She sets them out with the state of play in each.

26.4.07. FT investigation finds many carbon credit schemes are worthless. The regulated market for carbon credits is expected to more than double to about $68.2bn (£34bn) by 2010. The unregulated voluntary sector is expected to reach $4bn. The FT findings included instances of people and organisations buying worthless credits that do not yield any reductions in carbon emissions; industrial companies gaining carbon credits on the basis of efficiency gains from which they have already benefited, brokers providing services of no value, and a shortage of verification.

29.4.07. Lafarge reports a fire risk from BP laminates used in its solar PV tiles. Says it needs to inspect and if necessary replace junction boxes at 86 sites across Europe, and 54 of in UK.

30.4.07. BP CEO Lord Browne resigns, to be replaced by Tony Hayward. Browne had told a needless lie about how he met his gay lover. He leaves with a £5.3m, a £21.7m pension, and millions of pounds in shares due under an incentive plan.

Chavez nationalises four large Orinoco projects. ConocoPhilips, Chevron, ExxonMobil, Total, BP and Statoil have had stakes worth more than $15bn knocked out to give Venezuela control.

2.5.07. ExxonMobil exploration chief says peak oil is unlikely in next 25 years. Richard Vierbuchen, head of exploration, tells the OTC in Houston that demand will grow to 115 mbd by 2030.⁶⁷

4.5.07. IPCC policy group gives an upbeat report on averting climate change – if we tax carbon. Many low-carbon measures are already cost effective and costs of others such as wind and solar are falling fast.

6.5.07. More than 100 Chinese cities are to ban autos for a day. Beijing and Shanghai are among those who will join the first official urban "car-free day", including officials.

7.5.07. EasyJet takes Virgin Trains to the ASA over ad saying trains are better than flying. A Virgin marketing campaign claims that a train journey emits three-quarters less carbon dioxide than a comparable trip by air. Easyjet points to a failure to disclose whether its trains use electricity from nuclear power stations.

Scientists accuse filmmaker of falsifying data in The Great Global Warming Swindle. Eigil Friis-Christensen, director of the Danish National Space Centre, says solar data were fabricated by Michael Durkin. Carl Wunsch of MIT says his comments were edited to be misrepresentative.

9.5.07. UK government relaunches LCBP Phase1 grants, but with much reduced funding. The maximum per household is now £2,500, cut from £15,000. As a result, the return on solar PV systems drops to uneconomic levels. The LCBP was launched a year ago with £12.5m of funding for households, and £50m is available for renewable installation on public buildings. £6m was then added to the £12.5 by Treasury in the budget.

10.5.07. NY state closes coal-fired power plant that failed to limit acid-rain emissions. Mirant was due to spend $100m on scubbers as a result of a lawsuit settled with the state four years ago. It didn’t.

12.5.07. Kuwait confirms write-down of proved reserves and announces shake-up of oil sector. Minister Sheikh al-Sabah confirms to the Al-Wasat newspaper that proved reserves are 48 billion barrels, as reported last year by Petroleum Intelligence Weekly, down from an announced 100 billion barrels. But, he says, Kuwait has additional probable reserves of around 150 billion barrels as a result of recent discoveries. He also says that the management has become “flabby” and more young people are going to be promoted. Kuwait can reach 4 mbd up from 2.4 today by 2012, instead of 2020.⁶⁸

14.5.07. Rupert Murdoch says he is going to “educate and engage” his readers about global warming. The NewsCorp boss was once a sceptic, but now says he is proud to be green. He was converted by his son, plus Blair and Gore. NewsCorp aims to be carbon neutral by 2010. News International, publisher of UK newspapers, and HarperCollins will do so by the end of the year. All books published by Fourth Estate are to be printed on recycled paper from 1 July. MySpace is to launch a channel devoted to climate change. Fox television is developing “a solutions-based campaign.”

China makes progress with emissions limitation in power plants. China now has 80 per cent of the world's state-of-the-art, supercritical boilers in its new coal-fired stations. British coal stations, all of them using out of date technology, do not possess a single such boiler.

American Evangelicals are split on global warming. At Falwell’s 5,000-strong college hardly any students are concerned and faculty say it is a hoax. At another nearby, the reverse is true.

Climate modelers say a failing Gulf Stream is no longer likely to cool Europe. They are backing off the idea of a localised cooling in the North Atlantic because the Gulf Stream slowdown is slower than thought earlier and warming is drowning the effect.

Gas power plant cancelled in Russia because of tight gas supply. The monopoly generator UES wants more gas for its power plants, and Gazprom is not keen to give them more than they are allocated. UES has had to suspend construction of the second $220mn gas generator for the Kaliningrad thermal power plant near St Petersburg.

See JL blog 31, 15.5.07., on the greening of California.

16.5.07. Coalition of cities and banks pledge investments of billions for energy efficiency in buildings. 16 of the world’s biggest cities join with five banks in a project to invest billions of dollars to cut urban energy use. The loans and interest will be paid back with savings from reduced energy costs. The banks, Citigroup, UBS, Deutsche Bank, ABN Amro and JPMorgan Chase, will contibute $1 bn each

Saturated Southern Ocean soaking up less carbon dioxide than expected. Measurements since 1981, published in Science magazine, show that the efficiency of CO2 takeup is dropping. As emissions and concentrations have risen, uptake has not kept pace: the Southern Ocean is 30% less efficient as a sink than it was a quarter of a century ago, relative to the amount of CO2 in the air. This effect had been expected by scientists, but not for forty years or so. The reason is thought to be increased windiness as air warms, causing more mixing of water, bringing CO2 rich deep water to the surface where it outgasses. Ocean sinks take up around 25% of all CO2 produced each year. Onland sinks account for some 25%.

18.5.07. Mayors from 34 of the world's largest cities call for climate action. At the C40 Large Cities Climate Summit in New York, Mayor ken Livingstone of London said, “The fight to tackle climate change will be won or lost in cities. Whatever the discussions between our national governments, as cities we are not waiting for anyone else to move first.” The C40 group includes Bangkok, Berlin, Bogotá, Chicago, Copenhagen, Delhi, Houston, Istanbul, Johannesburg, Mexico City, Rio, Rome, Sao Paulo, Seoul, Sydney, Tokyo, Toronto, and Vancouver.

20.5.07. UK planning shake-up includes creation of an independent commission to make decisions. Ruth Kelly aims to simplify the consent process for vital infrastructure projects, including microgeneration but also airports and nuclear plants.

23.5.07. Second Energy White Paper published, including reference to further consultation on nuclear as required by the Greenpeace court ruling. A Guardian/ICM poll shows opponents of nuclear energy narrowly outnumber supporters, by 49% to 44%. The last time the Guardian conducted this poll, in late 2005, 45% backed nuclear energy and 48% opposed it. 62% of men are in favour against 27% of women: so no progress with the public then, though industry has become increasingly positive. E.ON says it is ready to build new plants in the UK and could do so without subsidies. EDF says its goal is one new station by 2017, but the FT says even this could be ambitious. Npower says the UK will need an extra 35GW of new generation capacity, or 20-30 power stations, to replace the old nuclear and coal-fired power stations that will be going out of service. FT: by the time the first planned new nuclear plant comes onstream by 2017 if the industry is lucky, most of the 35GW will long since have been needed. Most will need to be gas, so Britain could be importing 90 per cent of its gas needs by 2020.

BP drops plan for CCS power station with SSE. They say the Energy White Paper delayed the competition for CCS funding until November, which makes it impossible to pursue their plan.

Study of where nuclear plants should go warns of need for flood defences and sea walls. Four existing sites - Hinkley Point, Sizewell, Bradwell and Dungeness - were identified as the best candidates for early development in the government-commissioned report.

24.5.07. Survey shows huge majority of oil executives favour renewables investment because of declining reserves. A KPMG survey polled 553 financial executives from oil and gas companies in April 2007. 69% say at least 50% of government funding into energy should be directed at the renewable sources sector. 25% say that at least 75%. 82% cite declining oil reserves as a concern. 60% believe the decline is irreversible.

26.5.07. HSBC pledges $100m to fight climate change in biggest ever donation by a UK company. The HSBC Climate Partnership brings together the Climate Group, the Earthwatch Institute, the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute and the WWF: four organisations seeking to address the global causes and effects of climate change.

See JL blog 32, 28.5.07., on Labour lack of leadership on renewables.

29.5.07. UK government to develop measurement system to allow carbon labelling for shoppers. Ian Pearson, the environment minister, says ministers will work with the Carbon Trust and BSI British Standards to develop a benchmark for measurements over the next 18 months.

30.5.07. Ryanair admits backlash against it’s climate stance is hitting sales. Howard Millar, deputy chief executive, says “I am concerned that there is a continuing media campaign and the concern is that people might say 'maybe I will not fly on holiday and maybe I will make a different choice.'” He says there is a “very definite agenda” against the aviation industry over climate change and its reaction to it. Fuel replaced labour as the largest cost for airlines for the first time in 2006. See Jl blog 29, 13.4.07., on Ryanair’s irresponsibility.

George Bush proposes negotiations for biggest emitter nations only. The 15 countries responsible for the overwhelming bulk of greenhouse gas emissions would meet in the autumn with the aim of striking a deal on reductions by end 2008. Blair welcomes it, and it is the first time the US under Bush has accepted the need in-principle for reductions, but many fear a ruse to try and derail Kyoto, and ensure a negative outcome for the Bali Summit in December, when nations are expected to agree to negotiations for a follow-on beyond the 2008-12 Kyoto commitment period. Germany says negotiations within UN are “non-negotiable.”

1.6.07. The European solar thermal market grew 47% in 2006, doubling in less than three years. Suppose you were drive past a queue of lorries on a motorway, all carrying heating oil – 820,00 tonnes of it. That is the equivalent of what all Europe’s solarwater heaters save each year. However, this is still <1% of the 50% of EU energy that is heating and cooling. 2006 installations totalled 3million m2 of collectors, or 2.1 GWth. the total capacity in operation at the end of 2006 was 13.5 GWth. National and local policies, and the Russian cutting off of gas supplies to Europe in January 2006, were the main drivers.⁶⁹

Study shows >5 GtCO2 cost-efficient abatement potential by 2030. Vattenfall and McKinseys collaborate to show that e.g. compact fluorescent lighting, which accounts for some 19% of the world's electricity use, has an investment payback of less than a year. So why does low-energy lighting makes up only 30% of Philips's sales?

NASA head doubts global warming. Michael Griffin says he is not sure it is a problem, saying it would be “arrogant” to assume the world’s climate should not change in the future. Jim Hansen and other scientists called the remarks ignorant.

UN agency finds malpractice in the validation and verification of CDM emissions projects. Up to 20% of supposed savings under the Clean Development Mechanism are in doubt, especially over “additionality.” Some companies are making huge profits and saving little or no carbon.

2.6.07. UK greenhouse emissions in 2005 same as in 2004, the Office for National Statistics reports. ONS figures show 733.5 mt for both years, 9.3% down on the 1990 base year for Kyoto.

3.6.07. Vatican gets a solar roof. The Vatican's chief engineer, Pier Carlo Cuscianna: the €2.5m (£1.7m) scheme will “put the Holy See in the forefront of solar energy technology.”

5.6.07. At G8 Summit, US refuses again to agree climate targets, this time under pressure from Merkel. The German chancellor, is defeated in her bid to persuade the US to agree targets for reducing carbon emissions and stabilising global temperatures. But Bush did promise that the US would work within the United Nations to forge a new global climate change deal to replace the Kyoto protocol in 2012.

6.6.07. The world's first commercial tidal turbine is to be installed in Northern Ireland. Marine Current Turbines (MCT) will install its SeaGen commercial energy system at the mouth of Strangford Lough, where there is one of the fastest tidal flows in the world, beginning in August. 1.2MW.

7.6.07. First biodiesel train run by Virgin in UK. The fuel mix which is 20 per cent biodiesel, made from rapeseed, soyabean and palm oil. It can Virgin’s rail CO2 emissions by up to 14 per cent, some 34,500 tonnes less CO2 being emitted, equivalent to taking 23,000 cars off the road. Branson hopes to increase to 100 per cent in the future.

9.6.07. IEA warns of global crunch in 5 years, and forecasts faster than expected oil supply drop in UK. UK oil production is set to suffer a dramatic decline from today’s 1.7m barrels a day to just 1.0m b/d in 2012, according to the IEA. The IEA estimates Opec would have to supply about 36.2m b/d in 2012, up from today’s 31.3m b/d. That would reduce the oil cartel’s spare capacity to a 'minimal level' of 1.6 per cent of global demand, down from 2.9 per cent in 2007. The IEA said that supply was falling faster than expected in mature areas, such as the North Sea or Mexico.

Eon says it has reached “five minutes to midnight” in efforts to guarantee UK electricity in the 2010s. The main problem is gas supplies for the growing number of gas plants.

China considers halting coal-to-oil projects due to worries about energy and expense. The official Xinhua News Agency reports that China “may put an end to projects which are designed to produce petroleum by liquefying coal.” So says an official of the country's top economic planning agency, of the National Development and Reform Commission. “Liquefied coal projects consume a lot of energy, though the successful industrialization of liquefied coal could help reduce the country's dependence on petroleum.” The official also expressed concern about the expense and water demands of such projects. The Chinese government announced plans in March to build Asia's largest facility to make diesel fuel from coal at a cost of 100 billion yuan (US$13 billion; €10 billion). The facility in the northwestern region of Ningxia would be due to start operation in 2020 and with a capacity of 75 million barrels of diesel fuel a year.

11.6.07. IEA revises 2007 forecast up to 86.1 mbd. 2006 was 1.7 lower at 84.4. May supply fell to 84.9 mbd. Oil price is now $68. US supplies are a concern as the driving season starts.

12.6.07. World still has 40 years of oil, says BP as usual when it publishes the annual Statistical Review of World Energy. Peter Davies, BP's chief economist, dismisses the arguments of the “peak oil”. “We don't believe there is an absolute resource constraint. When peak oil comes, it is just as likely to come from consumption peaking, perhaps because of climate change policies or for some other reason, as from production peaking.”⁷⁰

13.6.07. Exxon now says it never doubted climate change threat. So says Kenneth Cohen, head of public affairs, in London. The world's most profitable company now accepts that U.S. climate policymaking is inevitable and it prefers either a carbon market that would allocate carbon credits solely to upstream suppliers of fossil fuels, such as oil companies – not utilities - or else a carbon tax. “We're very much not a denier, very much at the table with our sleeves rolled up.” He says Exxon still opposes Kyoto, and that opposition was why it funds contrarian groups. He hints that funding may stop. “For you to suggest we should stop funding all groups and Greenpeace to cherry-pick which groups we can fund or not, I reject that.”

14.6.07. Utility executives expecting nuclear share of electricity to rise are in a minority. A PWC survey of 114 companies finds that 48% of executives expect wind power to provide an increasing share of electricity over the next five years, up from just 17 per cent in the same survey a year ago. For nuclear, 45 per expect an increase, up from 19 per cent last year.

Shock in the UK oil industry as Shell puts North Sea assets up for sale. Around 8% of its North Sea output is involved. In a sign of the times in the fast depleting North Sea, Shell also cancelled plans for a new HQ building in Aberdeen.⁷¹

See JL blog 33, on The Apprentice and corporate responsibility.

15.6.07. Australia, in grip of long-running drought, finds that global warming is an election issue. Rainfall is about 20 percent down over the last half century, and the flow of rivers has fallen by a staggering 70 percent in recent decades. There have been two El Ninos in quick succession, 2002-3 and 2006-7, with no intervening wet periods. El Ninos pull the normal rain offshore. All of the major cities are now in drought. The Murray Darling basin, an area the size of France and Spain combined, produces 40% of Australia’s food and fibre and is under dire threat. Meanwhile the coal fired power plants that provide 50% of the energy consume 2 tonnes of water in cooling and steam generation for every megawatt-hour produced. Queensland has turned off two of its power stations because of scarcity. Price of electricity has risen (A$30 to A60) Australia is the world’s worst per capita emitter of C02. Perth has built a desalination plant. (24 MW needed to run it, from wind). Sydney is building another.

18.6.07. 90% of consumers are sceptical about global warming information from industry & government. A Consumers International and Accountability report shows that more than 40% of consumers distrust what they hear about global warming from businesses and a further 50% do not know whether to believe corporate claims or not. In contrast, 60% trust scientists and almost half who put the same faith in environmental groups such as Friends of the Earth and Greenpeace. Only 22% of consumers trust the reliability of information coming from religious figures, 12% from film stars and 17% trust the media. 2,734 people were surveyed in Britain and America.

Jim Hansen and five other top modellers say the world is in “imminent peril” in latest paper. The article, on trace gases, appears in Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society. It looks at 400,000 years of records and argues that an “albedo flip” is imminent in the Arctic and has not be considered by the IPCC. The is could cause a “flip” in climate that could “spark a cataclysm” in the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica sending sea levels up by several metres this century. “We conclude that a feasible strategy for planetary rescue almost surely requires a means of extracting [greenhouse gases] from the air.” See paper for more.

19.6.07. China passes the US as biggest CO2 emitter. 6,200 mt versus 5,800 in 2006 according to the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. But per capita, this is still only a quarter of the US, and half the UK.

21.6.07. Brown and Miliband hold climate consultation with UK business leaders. 100 invited guests at Lancaster House. Gore gives the closing speech, addressing Brown: “So Gordon, I do believe this moment in history is matched by your skills.” Brown becomes PM tomorrow. See notes.

US NAS Report says US may not have much less coal as commonly believed. The National Academy of Sciences concludes “there is probably sufficient coal to meet the nation’s needs for more than 100 years at current rates of consumption,” the study said. “However, it is not possible to confirm the often-quoted assertion that there is a sufficient supply of coal for the next 250 years.” In some areas, only 5 percent of the coal was recoverable with today’s technology and at current prices. The 100-year forecast is based on current consumption rates, about 1.1 billion tons a year.

Torrential rain in England causes biblical flooding scenes. People trapped on roofs of cars many miles from the sea. Crisis lasts for weeks from here on. 6.07: thousands of people in the north of England are still homeless.

See JL blog 34, 27.6.07., on catastrophic floods in Midlands.

A car costing only $3,000 comes on the market in India. Currently the vehicle density is 7 per thousand compared to 373 per 1,000 in UK and 477 per 1,000 in US.