Verbatim Mac

Case Extensions

Warming

Paris DB/Coop inevitable

1NC 1 Squo solves – Paris climate targets of 2 degrees C are legally enforced, countries have moral obligation to follow through – renewable technology already on the rise, competition drives the shift towards solar and wind – Mishra

Paris indicates countries have already committed to 2 degrees – further enforcement is pointless

King 4-19-2016, (Ed, editor climate home, "'Critical mass' to support UN climate change deal," Climate Home - climate change news, http://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/04/19/us-china-to-lead-climate-pact-signatures-in-new-york/)//S

Last December, 195 countries agreed the Paris Agreement on climate change, which committed the world to limiting global warming to well below 2C, with an aspirational target of 1.5C. Intense negotiations between the US and China will see the world’s top two emitters of greenhouse gases sign the UN accord this week, and formally approve it later this year, say sources. The agreement needs the support of 55 countries covering more than 55% of global emissions before it can become operational, with campaigners now hopeful it will come into force in 2017. “I think the critical mass is really lining up,” said Eliza Northrop, an associate with the World Resources Institute, in a media call last week. “There are a number of relatively large emitters; if they can sign on early, we can see reaching that threshold in the not just distant future.” India, Canada, Mexico and South Africa are among the leading carbon polluters to say they will ratify the pact this year, with no word so far from Japan, Russia, Brazil or South Korea.

Warming No Extinction

1NC 2 – Past extinctions prove that sudden fluctuations in global temperature and atmosphere are needed to cause mass extinction – anthropogenic warming is overblown, impacts will be avoided and Eocene example proves mammals can survive and adapt to climate change – prefer historical examples instead of fear mongering speculation – their studies don’t take into account geological reconstruction – Costello

Alt Cause – SCS

1NC 3 – SCS conflict o/w cooperation – US and China have invested tons of military funds, media focuses on this issue – Yang

Tensions in SCS overshadow positive cooperation between US and China

Emirates Business, 6-6-2016, (Business reporting, "South China Sea casts shado over crucial USA-China talks," http://emirates-business.ae/south-china-sea-casts-shadow-over-crucial-usa-china-talks/)//SZ

President Xi Jinping said China and the US needed to trust each other more as both sides sought to minimise tensions over the South China Sea at the opening on Monday of key annual talks in Beijing. China claims nearly all of the strategically vital sea despite competing claims by several Southeast Asian neighbours, and has rapidly built artificial islands suitable for military use. Washington has responded by sending warships close to Chinese claimed reefs, angering Beijing. “China and the US need to increase mutual trust,” Xi said at the opening of the annual strategic dialogue, calling for redoubling of efforts for the two powers to manage conflicts and avoid “strategic misjudgement”. “Some disputes may not be resolved for the time being,” he said, but both sides should take a “pragmatic and constructive” attitude towards those issues. “The vast Pacific should be a stage for cooperation, not an area for competition,” he said. Speaking for the US, Secretary of State John Kerry called for a “diplomatic solution” to the problem. “We are looking for a peaceful resolution to the dispute in the South China Sea and oppose any country resolving claims through unilateral action”, he said, referring to China’s increasingly aggressive expansion in the area. The Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia and Vietnam have competing claims in the South China Sea, which encompasses vital global shipping routes and is believed to have significant oil and gas deposits. Manila accuses China of taking effective control of the Scarborough Shoal in 2012 and has brought a case against Beijing to the Permanent Court of Arbitration at The Hague. China has shunned the proceedings and says it will not recognise any ruling. ‘Provocative act’ The Beijing talks follow an Asian security summit at the weekend where US Defense Secretary Ashton Carter warned that Chinese construction on the shoal would prompt unspecified “actions” by the United States and other nations. Following Carter’s comments at the Singapore meeting, Chinese Admiral Sun Jianguo said the issue had become “overheated” and said China did not fear “trouble” over its territorial disputes. Tensions mounted after the South China Morning Post reported last week Beijing could establish an air defence identification zone (ADIZ) over the sea—which would require civilian aircraft to identify themselves to military controllers. Such a move would be considered “a provocative and destabilising act”, Kerry said on a trip to Mongolia Sunday. The Beijing dialogue is perhaps the most important meeting between the world’s two largest economic and military powers, giving them a chance to seek agreement and iron out disputes on a range of issues related to security and economics.Both countries promote the event, known as the Strategic and Economic Dialogue, as an opportunity to move forward issues, such as global warming, where they find easier agreement. But the discussions are often defined by points of conflict, with increasing tensions in the South China Sea promising to overshadow this year’s efforts to focus on the positive.

Warming Inevitable

1NC 4&5 – Extend Paltsev and Knutti – 350 ppm is inevitable, we’re committed to sea level rise and ocean acidification: even if we cut emissions to zero now CO2 will circulate in the atmosphere and oceans and impacts will continue to worsen for the next century, simulating a post 2 degree world.

Our evidence post dates, warming has gotten substantially worse – Too late for red line of 2 degrees C – current technology is insufficient to prevent climate change

Tayag 16 (Biologist writer, formerly working for Scientific America, citing meteorologist Eric Holthaus and Rob Jackson (Ph.D), February's record-breaking temperatures pushed us past the point of no return. https://www.inverse.com/article/12516-when-it-comes-to-climate-change-it-s-too-late-now-to-say-sorry)//SZ

Last year, experts at the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change contended that while the window to slow down carbon emissions was closing, there was still time to slow down the Earth’s irreversible demise by increasing the share of renewable energy to 80 percent up from 30 percent. But a new report from meteorologist Eric Holthaus in Slate makes it clear that the northern hemisphere has breached that two-degree mark over normal, pre-Industrial temperatures. We have, it seems, already failed. He explains that February was somewhere between 1.15 and 1.4 degrees Celsius above the long-term average, making it “the most above-average month ever measured.” While the “official” temperature data sets haven’t been released yet — data from NOAA’s MLOST, NASA’s GISTEMP, and the UK’s HadCRUT are the most highly cited — Holthaus argues that it really doesn’t matter because the recent numbers are so high that tiny fluctuations wouldn’t make much of a difference. Emphasizing that temperatures are not only rising but that the rate at which they’re increasing is speeding up, he writes: Keep in mind that it took from the dawn of the industrial age until October 2015 to reach the first 1.0°C rise. That means we have come as much as an extra 0.4°C further in just the last five months. We already know 2015 was the hottest year on record, with the effect of our flagging efforts at curbing emissions exacerbated by the crazy-strong El Niño effect. If Holthaus is right — that it’s too late to turn back — it signals a need to switch the focus of our climate change plans from prevention to contingency. Scientists like Stanford University’s Rob Jackson, Ph.D., already skeptical of the efficacy of the two-degree limit, have suggested chasing options such as “negative-emission energy,” which will allow us to retract the emissions we’ve already dumped into the atmosphere. That technology doesn’t exist yet, but it’s clear that it’s going to have to happen much sooner rather than later.

Reducing emissions is insufficient to stop feedback loops that drive temperature over 2 degrees C

FröLicher et al 14 (Thomas Lukas, PhD Biochemistry, Oceanography, Climatology "Continued global warming after CO2 emissions stoppage : Nature Climate Change : Nature Research," No Publication, http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v4/n1/full/nclimate2060.html)//SZ

Recent research has suggested that the magnitude of CO2-induced warming that will occur and persist for the coming centuries is mainly determined by the amount of future cumulative carbon emissions and that past emissions commit us to hundreds of years at approximately the level of CO2-induced warming that has already been realized. Thus, cumulative carbon emissions are a powerful metric for climate stabilization levels and thus policy, as only the warming per unit cumulative emissions is needed to make projections of global temperature on multi-centennial timescales1, 6, 26. Our study shows that global mean temperature may even increase after zero carbon emissions, because of feedback effects arising in response to the magnitude and geographic structure of ocean heat uptake. Thus, estimates of allowable carbon emissions required to remain below the 2 °C global warming target may be significantly lower than previously thought. A better understanding and monitoring of how ocean circulation changes impact regional ocean heat uptake and thus efficacy is necessary to narrow uncertainties in climate change projections.

Alt Cause – Emissions

1NC 6 indicates that Agriculture methane releases and aviation massively outweigh CO2 emissions – NASA scientist Hansen (Grandfather of GW) reports that current and future climate change is largely caused by alternative emissions, which means CO2 reduction isn’t sufficient – that’s Earth Save. Solar or wind can’t replace power generation needed to supply aviation which doubled in the past decade – Monbiot