Water research commission

APPENDICES:

Appendix A: Capacity Building.
Student: Katinka Waagsaether

Title: Preparing for the future: Assessing the vulnerability of small-scale farmers in Bushbuckridge

Degree: MSc

University: University of Cape Town

Abstract:

Farming is a precarious profession, impacted by the social, economic, political, institutional and physical environment, to which climate change projections pose an additional challenge. South Africa has a highly diverse agricultural sector, with agricultural systems ranging from subsistence farming in homesteads to commercial estates with thousands of hectares under cultivation. In order to inform agricultural adaptation strategy and action, this thesis takes a multidisciplinary approach that focuses on preparing for the future by understanding the present. The focal aim of this thesis is to assess whether the current coping and adaptation mechanisms of small-scale farmers in the South African Province of Mpumalanga are sufficient for dealing with projected climate change. This is achieved through assessment of how small-scale farmers are currently coping with and adapting to climate variability and extreme weather events. A theoretical framework for vulnerability assessments, that situates farmers in a multi-stressor environment, is employed in order to get an understanding of the multifaceted setting in which small-scale farmers currently live and work. Farmers’ understanding of the current climate is analysed through a comparison of local historical climate data with farmers’ perceptions, while analysis of downscaled climate change projections provides a picture of what the future climate might look like. The study combines fieldwork data with historical and projected climate data from local stations in a combination of qualitative and quantitative data analysis, producing a number of findings that contribute to the discourse on adaptation, and further work to inform future policy and adaptation action.

Student: Hamman Oosthuizen

Title:

Degree: PhD

University: University of Stellenbosch

Abstract:

Numerous studies indicate that the agricultural sector is physically and economically vulnerable to climate change. In order to determine possible impacts of projected future climates on the financial vulnerability of selective farming systems in South Africa, a case study methodology was applied. The integrated modelling framework consists of four modules, viz.: climate change impact modelling, dynamic linear programming (DLP) modelling, modelling interphases and financial vulnerability assessment modelling. Empirically downscaled climate data from five global climate models (GCMs) served as base for the integrated modelling. The APSIM crop model was applied to determine the impact of projected climates on crop yield for certain crops in the study. In order to determine the impact of projected climates on crops for which there are no crop models available, a unique modelling technique, Critical Crop Climate Threshold (CCCT) modelling, was developed and applied to model the impact of projected climate change on yield and quality of agricultural produce. Climate change impact modelling also takes into account the projected changes in irrigation water availability (ACRU hydrological model) and crop irrigation requirements (SAPWAT3 model) as a result of projected climate change. The model produces a set of valuable results, viz. projected changes in crop yield and quality, projected changes in availability of irrigation water, projected changes in crop irrigation needs, optimal combination of farming activities to maximize net cash flow, and a set of financial criteria to determine economic viability and financial feasibility of the farming system. A set of financial criteria; i.e. internal rate of return (IRR), net present value (NPV), cash flow ratio, highest debt ratio, and highest debt have been employed to measure the impact of climate change on the financial vulnerability of farming systems. Adaptation strategies to lessen the impact of climate change were identified for each case study through expert group discussions, and included in the integrated modelling as alternative options in the DLP model. This aims at addressing the gap in climate change research, i.e. integrated economic modelling at farm level; thereby making a contribution to integrated climate change modelling.

Student: Steve Arowolo

Title: The Impact of Climate Variability on Food System Activities - A Case Study of the Maize Value Chain in South Africa

Degree: PhD

University: University of Cape Town

Abstract:

Over a decade ago, during the year 2003/2004, seven out of the South African nine provinces were declared drought risk areas. Maize, the country’s major crop produced for domestic and international markets was severely affected, with major shortages, thereby posing serious threat to the livelihoods of farmers, traders and consumers alike. Using a combination of historical climate, socio-economic and maize yield data over a 30 year period, the study investigates the possible impact of historical climate variability on the maize value chain in South Africa. Station climate data was used for precipitation and temperature from 1980 -2013 in the maize growing regions of South Africa. Maize storage, processing, distribution and consumption data were included in the correlation analysis. In order to emphasis the effects of short term variations in the climate, the study focuses on the possible impact of climate variability on the maize value chain variables, using case studies from the extreme climate events of 1991/1992 and 2003/2004 both representing pre and post maize market liberalization periods, respectively corresponding to ENSO years that do not necessarily represent a trend. Preliminary result shows that maize value chain variables were more sensitive to climate variability during the pre-maize market liberalization years.

Appendix B: Publications

Conference papers:

• 
  Dr Oosthuizen presented a paper at SANCID 2012 Symposium South African National Committee on Irrigation and Drainage “Modelling the Financial Vulnerability of Farming Systems to Climate Change” 20-23 Nov 2012 Alpine Heath Drakensberg
  
• 
  Dr Peter Johnston presented at The International Conference on Regional Climate - CORDEX 2013 held 4-7 November 2013 in Brussels, Belgium, “Using downscaled climate change scenarios to model the impact on farming systems from a financial vulnerability point of view”, which was enthusiastically received by the audience.
  
• 
  Dr Oosthuizen delivered a paper at the International Water Association conference in Mexico.: Oosthuizen, H.J., Louw, D.B., Schulze, R.E., Johnston, P.J., Lombard, J.P. and Backeberg, G.R. Modelling the impact of climate on the financial vulnerability of farms – a Hoedspruit irrigation farm case study. Paper presented at IWA Water Energy and Climate Conference 21 - 23 May 2014, Mexico.
  
• 
  Dr Oosthuizen is due to present a poster at The International Crop Modelling Symposium, iCROPM2016 in Berlin in April 2016: Crop Critical Climate Threshold (CCCT) modelling as an alternative modelling technique to determine the financial impact of climate change on crop yield and quality – a South African case-study" in Session III – Crop modelling for risk/impact assessment.
  

Scientific Papers:

• 
  Submitted to Agrekon for publication: Oosthuizen et al.: Modelling the impact of climate on the financial vulnerability of farms – a Moorreesburg dry land case study.
  
• 
  In draft revision: Johnston and Kloppers: Climate risk, wheat yield variation and ocean - climate teleconnections: Options for adaptation - a Swartland case study.
  
• 
  It is expected to produce at least one more paper on the use of thresholds as an adjunct for crop modelling.
  

Popular Articles

• 
  An article on the project published in Nov/Dec 2015 issue of Water Wheel.
  
• 
  An article in Landbou weekblad awaits publication
  
• 
  Project website: www.csag.uct.ac.za/wrc/a4a.
  

Appendix B: Summary of crop critical climate threshold breaches

Summary of crop threshold breaches – LORWUA case study area




Summary of crop threshold breaches – LORWUA case study area




Summary of crop threshold breaches – LORWUA case study area


Summary of crop threshold breaches – Blyde River WUA case study area


Summary of crop threshold breaches – Blyde River WUA case study area


Summary of crop threshold breaches – Moorreesburg case study area


Summary of crop threshold breaches – Carolina case study area


Summary of crop threshold breaches – Carolina case study area


Summary of crop threshold breaches – Carolina case study area


Reports on CD

1. 
   Modelling Impacts of Irrigation and Other Land Uses on Streamflows and Storage Dam Performance in the Blyde and Olifants (West) Catchments Under Present and Projected Future Climatic Conditions, R.E. Schulze and N.S. Davis
   
2. 
   Simulations of Changes in Irrigation Water Demand and Reservoir Performance in the Upper and Lower Olifants-Doorn Catchment Under Conditions of Climate Change, RE Schulze and NS Davis
   
3. 
   Comparative Analysis of the Natural Capital of the Olifants (West) and Blyde Catchments Under Present and Projected Future Climatic Conditions: Report 1, 2012. R.E. Schulze and N.S. Davis
   

1^ SMART stands for Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Realistic and Time-framed, and is a tool to set feasible goals and to identify the different steps that are necessary for the implementation of adaptations

2^ A chill unit is defined as the minimum period of cold weather after which a fruit-bearing tree will blossom. A full chill unit is assigned only to temperatures lower than 9°C per hour. Temperatures higher than 16°C have negative weights: they reduce the number of accumulated chill units.