Water research commission

Lessons learnt from the Case study areas on achieving effective knowledge dissemination

1. Lessons learnt from info sessions

11.1.1 Moorreesburg

This meeting was held on 20/04/2015 and was attended by members of the farming community, WC Department of Agriculture, Agri-business and an NGO.

The focus of the research for this region was wheat and the results of the research were presented. For the Moorreesburg area, the results show that from a financial point of view, a slight decrease in profitability can be expected, although farming operations will still be profitable. Farmers with high debt levels ratios will be more financially vulnerable than those with low debt levels.

Adaptations mentioned and approved by the audience were:

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  Diversification –alternative crops/livestock - using Medics spp as cover crop, keeping sheep to graze and as a hedge during dry years. Also some evidence of using any available water for high value crops (in terms of net rand vale, such as vineyard root stocks, OR in terms of soil improvement value, such as Fava beans and other legumes)
  
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  Applying conservation agriculture principles - minimal/no till planting, not burning or overgrazing residue.
  

Lessons that emerged:

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  Farmers who do not diversify run a higher risk during dry years, but there is evidence that larger farms that practice exclusive wheat production can make enough profit during good years to see them through the poorer years.
  
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  It was felt that for wheat farmers to survive in the future would require them to employ conservation agriculture principles especially minimum till, and that although the capital cost of machinery was considerable, adaptations to existing equipment could be made resulting in considerable saving.
  
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  It was clear that the farmers appreciated the efforts of the team and were grateful for the information provided.
  
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  Although not many farmers were present at the meetings, it was expressed that word amongst the famers travelled fast and that the efforts of the provincial department facilitated the spread of adaptation principles and uptake of conservation agriculture especially.
  

11.1.2 Vredendal (Lower Oliphant’s River Water Users Association)

This meeting was held on 21/04/2015 and was attended by members of the farming community, WC Department of Agriculture, Agri-business, LORWUA and Department of Water and Sanitation.

The focus of the research for this region was grapes, including table, wine and dried, and the results of the research were presented. For the Lower Oliphant’s River region, the results show that from a financial point of view a decrease in profitability can be expected. Farmers with high debt levels ratios will be more financially vulnerable than those with low debt levels.

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  Climate data from four GCMs was applied in the APSIM modelling. All the GCMs project a 20-year average decrease in yield, varying from 9% to 18%.
  
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  Data from five GCMs was applied in the CCCT model. All five models project a decrease in yield for wine grapes, table grapes and raisins and a decrease in quality for table grapes.
  
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  A 10% average annual increase in irrigation requirements is projected for table grapes for intermediate future climates in order to obtain the same yield as with present climates. For wine grapes and raisins, an 11% average increase in irrigation requirements is projected.
  
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  Both climate change financial modelling techniques (APSIM crop modelling and CCCT modelling technique) indicate that intermediate climate scenarios from five different GCMs pose a threat to the financial vulnerability of farming systems in the LORWUA grape producing area.
  

Several adaptation strategies to counter the impact of climate change on financial vulnerability were used by farmers. These strategies include:

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  Shift wine grape cultivars towards cultivars that are more tolerant towards projected climate change
  
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  Increase raisin and table grape production
  
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  Install shade nets over table grapes production areas.
  

The above adaptation strategies all seem to lessen the impact of climate change on financial vulnerability to a certain extent and seem worth further investigation.

Adaptation strategies not included in the model we used, but suggested to the farming group, included:

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  Irrigation at night to save water
  
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  Plastic or mulch cover to conserve moisture
  
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  Soil preparation and site selection for future plantings in order to ensure optimum production – rather scale down and eliminate marginal blocks.
  

Lessons that emerged:

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  Climate information per se was only helpful if it presented farmers with the specific detail they required. For example with grapes, the maximum temperatures were not as limiting as the actual diurnal range experienced, in this case anything less than 10 degrees between maxima and minima on a daily basis, compromised quality.
  
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  The availability of irrigation water is critical to this industry and the projections of flow into and from the Clanwilliam dam and canal system are of paramount importance. The impact of the pending raising of the dam wall is being eagerly anticipated but is slightly offset by the deterioration of the canal system
  
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  Shade nets are a big capital expense and farmers felt that (as with crop insurance) the expense was not always justified.
  

11.1.3 Hoedspruit (Blyde River Irrigation Scheme/Water Users Association)

This meeting was held on 29/4/2015 and was attended by farmers and a representative from SubTrop, the marketing company representing subtropical fruit and nuts.

The focus of the research for this region was mangoes and citrus and the results of the research were presented. For the Blyde River irrigation area, the results show that from a financial point of view a slight decrease in profitability can be expected, although farming operations will still be profitable. Farmers with high debt levels ratios will be more financially vulnerable than those with low debt levels.

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  Empirically downscaled climate values of five GCMs were applied in the CCCT model. Although, only one out of five GCMs projects a decrease in yield for citrus, all models project a negative impact on quality. For mangoes the models project a negative impact on both yield and quality.
  
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  An 8% average annual increase in irrigation requirements is projected for both citrus and mangoes for intermediate future climates in order to obtain the same yield as with present climates.
  
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  The projection of the Blydepoort Dam level was done by UKZN, using the ACRU model. All indications are that the availability of irrigation water for the Blyde River WUA area irrigators (in terms of quota consistency) will not be negatively affected by the projected climate scenarios.
  
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  The CCCT modelling results indicate that intermediate climate scenarios from different GCMs pose a threat to the financial vulnerability of farming systems in the Blyde River mango and citrus producing area.
  

An adaptation strategy to counter the impact of climate change on financial vulnerability is to install shade nets over mango and citrus production areas. The installation of shade nets proves to lessen the impact of climate change on financial vulnerability to a certain extent and seems worthwhile to investigate further.

Adaptation strategies not included in the model, but suggested to farmers, include:

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  Mulching cover to conserve moisture
  
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  More effective management of irrigation systems
  
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  Cultivar development to increase natural heat resistance
  

Lessons that emerged:

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  Hail storms have increased in frequency in the area and just prior to our meeting a severe, but small storm had devastated a mango orchard, which had, ironically, been covered by shade netting. The presence of the netting had reduced the damage, but the farmer concerned was undecided whether to replace the netting due to the capital expense. The question to the team was whether climate change was likely to result in a greater likelihood of hail. This was not in our models and needs to be considered in the future.
  
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  The availability of irrigation water is critical to this industry and the projections of flow into and from the Blyde dam and pipe system are of paramount importance. The demand lower downstream has already impacted on the river flow, but the BRWUA community were assured that their supply from the dam would be maintained. The reality is that regardless of rainfall, they are dependent on irrigation and anything that threatens that source is a risk.
  

11.1.4 Carolina

This meeting was held on 30/4/2015 at the Local department of Agriculture offices in Carolina. Though none of the original case study farmers (who were invited) chose to attend, the meeting was crowded with around 50 small scale farmers invited in collaboration with the department and a former development agent from Grain SA.

The focus of the research for this region was maize and soya beans, and the results of the research were presented. For the Carolina - Middelburg area, the results show that from a financial point of view no change or possibly an increase in profitability can be expected. Farmers with high debt levels ratios will be more financially vulnerable than those with low debt levels.

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  Climate data from four GCMs was applied in the APSIM modelling to project intermediate future yield for maize. One model projects an average decrease of 25% while three models project an increase in average yield of approximately 10%.
  
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  Data from five GCMs was used in CCCT modelling. All five models project an average increase in yield of approximately 10%. This result correlates to a large extent with the APSIM crop modelling results where three out of four models projected similar increases in average yield.
  
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  Both climate change financial modelling techniques (APSIM crop modelling and the CCCT modelling technique) indicate that intermediate climate scenarios from five different GCMs pose no threat to the financial vulnerability of farming systems in the Carolina summer rainfall dryland area. Please note that abnormal climate events like storms, hail, etc., were not included in the climate modelling.
  

Adaptation strategies to counter the impact of climate change on financial vulnerability were included in the model. These strategies include:

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  Cropping systems (crop rotation maize-soybeans-maize)
  
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  Production practices (conservation agriculture).
  

The above adaptation strategies seem to not only counter the impact of climate change, but to positively impact on profitability.

Lessons that emerged:

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  There is a major difference between capacity, technical know-how and resource availability between the commercial farmers and the small scale farmers. In dealing with both groups it became clear that their risk exposure is much more than climate, in both cases, but that the small scale farmers need much more support in terms of advice regarding crop and cultivar choice, weather information and drought warnings. The commercial farmers were already practising precision agriculture, whereas the small scale famers who barely understood English or Afrikaans were seriously disadvantaged when it came to communication dissemination.
  
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  There seems to be very little collaboration between the two groups, which hinders development and cross fertilisation of ideas and adaptation options.
  
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  Coal mining and land redistribution are seen as important threats to successful agriculture in this area, particularly with its very high soil fertility and yield potential, and thus a threat to food security.
  
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  Soya is seen as a very viable alternative to maize when the latter’s price decreases. Farmers see the soya price as more profitable, generally.
  

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