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China Alt Energy DA Aff Responses

No Chinese Alternative Energy

Their data is flawed – China isn’t winning the race

Stephen Lacey, renewable energy analyst, 4-7-2014, “What Does ‘Winning’ the Clean Energy Race Even Mean?” Greentechmedia, http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/what-does-winning-the-clean-energy-race-even-mean Accessed 5-5-2014

Finally, comparing yearly numbers doesn't always give us a full picture of the market. In 2007 and 2008, Spain had become a top contender in the early global solar race. But when it dismantled a grossly generous feed-in tariff, the market collapsed and investment ground to a halt. The same story has played out in other solar markets around the world. Being a leader in the long term doesn't necessarily mean attracting the most investment each year. It means providing consistency and a path for clean energy to scale with fewer subsidies.¶ In terms of consistency, China certainly beats America. The U.S. hasn't had a real energy policy since 2005, and it continually relies on short-term tax credits to support the industry on the federal level. With absolutely zero political will to price carbon or create more national support schemes for renewables, one could argue that America continues to lag in leadership.¶ Framing this lack of leadership in the context of a global race creates a compelling narrative that could feasibly influence decision-making on the federal level. However, it fails to take into account many other metrics like environmental health, research and development, quality of college and university programs, entrepreneurship, financial innovation, and the full suite of state and federal support.

No Chinese Economic Growth

China’s growth is slowing now – political reforms won’t come fast enough

Nouriel Roubini, Professor of Economics at New York University’s Stern School of Business and co-founder and chairman of Roubini Global Economics, 9-24-2012, “Fear Premium” http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/09/24/fear_premium_roubini_bremmer?page=full Accessed 5-5-2014

In China, there is an economic slowdown in capital spending, infrastructure spending, and in real estate. And the problem of China is to rebalance its growth away from net exports, away from high savings, away from fixed investments (which is now 50 percent of GDP) and facilitate reform that will increase consumption. My concern is that the new leadership is going to come out of China and is going to be a collective leadership with seven or nine members of the founding committee of the Politburo. Some of them are pro-market-oriented folks; some of them are more in favor of civil enterprises; some of them want to accelerate political reforms; but any progress they're going to make in the election of balance in the growth rate of China is going to be slow. It might end up being too late compared to what is desirable enough. And by the mid to late part of next year, a hard landing in China -- meaning growth at 5 percent or below -- becomes a more likely scenario.

Growth will fall in 2013 – Chinese government won’t prevent a slump

Andrew Jacobs, writer for the New York Times, 9-26-2012, “China Politics Stall Overhaul for Economy” http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/27/world/asia/chinas-politics-hinder-effort-to-shore-up-economy.html?pagewanted=all Accessed 5-5-2014

China’s standard economic formula, they say, is losing its potency: overzealous government investment and lagging consumer spending are creating serious imbalances that are expected to lead to a much more painful reckoning, perhaps not long after the new raft of younger leaders assumes power in early 2013. “There are tough choices to make, but the central government appears to be so paralyzed they are just sitting on their hands,” said Ho-Fung Hung, a political economist at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore. “The situation is looking increasingly dire.”

AT: Zero Sum

The race is positive sum – both sides benefit from innovations

Stephen Lacey, renewable energy analyst, 4-7-2014, “What Does ‘Winning’ the Clean Energy Race Even Mean?” Greentechmedia, http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/what-does-winning-the-clean-energy-race-even-mean Accessed 5-5-2014

And then there are the positive impacts that come from other countries with a strong clean energy sector. ¶ For example, if Denmark hadn't become an early leader in developing wind technologies, budding manufacturers in America may not have learned valuable technical lessons as quickly. We can thank Denmark for capturing the value of wind first, and then sending that value over to the U.S.¶ China's (oft-maligned) support for solar manufacturing may have an equally important impact on downstream solar in the U.S. Although China's heavy subsidies helped put American and European solar manufacturers out of business, Chinese producers have dramatically lowered global module prices -- in turn lowering the installed cost of PV and helping create tens of thousands of downstream installation jobs in America.

AT: Zero Sum

China-US competition over clean energy is not zero sum

Christina Larson, a journalist focusing on international environmental issues, 2-8-2010, “America’s Unfounded Fears of¶ A Green-Tech Race with China,” Yale E 360, http://e360.yale.edu/feature/americas_unfounded_fears_of_a_green-tech_race_with_china/2238/ Accessed 5-5-2014

Meanwhile, folks in the green-tech and environmental frontlines — as opposed to politicians and commentators — don’t see a “race” at all. “I do not see such a pattern exists,” says Wen Bo, a Beijing environmentalist. “The clean-tech war is overblown from the start,” says Richard Brubaker, an American environmental entrepreneur in Shanghai. To them, the green-tech “race” is not one that one side wins and the other loses, but a scenario where partnerships are sought out and the final equation doesn’t have to be a zero-sum game.

Clean energy development is not zero sum

David Roberts, a staff writer for Grist, 2-11-2011, “Are we in a ‘clean energy race’ with China?” Grist, http://grist.org/energy-policy/2011-02-10-are-we-in-a-clean-energy-race-with-china/ Accessed 5-5-2014

All the world’s people will benefit from cheaper clean energy and lower carbon emissions. China and the U.S. will both benefit from the expansion of the global market for clean energy. They will both benefit from joint research initiatives, intellectual property and technology sharing, and the reduction of distorting trade barriers. America happens to be particularly strong in research and tech development; China happens to be particularly strong in economies of scale. Those are complementary strengths that, in a sane world, would produce mutual benefit.

China’s clean tech expansion wont cost the US jobs

Christina Larson, a journalist focusing on international environmental issues, 2-8-2010, “America’s Unfounded Fears of¶ A Green-Tech Race with China ,” Yale E 360, http://e360.yale.edu/feature/americas_unfounded_fears_of_a_green-tech_race_with_china/2238/ Accessed 5-5-2014

Manufacturing in China, especially low and medium-tech manufacturing, has certain clear economic advantages. But it’s also worth considering a few other facts. Most of the green manufacturing jobs that the U.S. stands to “lose” haven’t in fact been created yet; China will gain thousands of new jobs, but not necessarily at America’s expense. Moreover, the United States will still gain many new green-collar jobs, in installation and maintenance, which can only be locally based, as well as sales teams, conference planners, and other positions already arising to support the growing green-tech field.

AT: Zero Sum

Chinese energy is not zero sum with the US

Ezra Klein, political analyst, 7-3-2010, “The global economy isn't zero-sum,” Washington Post, voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-klein/2010/06/the_global_economy_isnt_zero-s.html Accessed 5-5-2014

Polls and focus groups show that people go nuts for this sort of rhetoric. If you want the country to get behind your policy initiative, just tell them that China is beating us to the punch. But global economic growth is not a zero-sum game. Quite the opposite, in fact. If China and America both develop large and innovative clean-energy sectors, the result will be cleaner energy. If India graduates more engineers than we do, that means the world will have more engineers. If China gets a serious medical-research sector going, it will develop cures that will work on diseases that afflict Americans, too.¶ Competitive language is used in service of worthy goals, but it's also dangerous stuff. We're telling Americans to fear the economic development of other countries, when what they should actually fear is the reverse. If China or India stagnate, that means they won't become huge markets for our exports, it means they won't develop new technologies that can better our lives, it means that they won't be geopolitical anchors in the way that only rich, stable countries can be. The global economy isn't a race so much as it's a relay.

Progress on clean energy is collective not competitive

Christina Larson, a journalist focusing on international environmental issues, 2-8-2010, “America’s Unfounded Fears of¶ A Green-Tech Race with China ,” Yale E 360, http://e360.yale.edu/feature/americas_unfounded_fears_of_a_green-tech_race_with_china/2238/ Accessed 5-5-2014

Even as China’s solar panel exports grow, it continues to purchase clean locomotives from an American company, GE. Germany has developed world-class “green” metro cars, with China being a top customer. And French companies are among the world’s top innovators in water solutions. In other words, green-tech encompasses a lot more than windmills and solar panels — and progress in developing it can be a two-way street.

No Chinese Alternative Energy

China’s renewable energy market is doomed

Liu Yuanyuan, Director of Operations and Co-Founder of Nanjing Shanglong Communications, 2-1-2012, “China Set to Vigorously Develop Green Economy ,” Renewable Energy World, http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2012/02/china-set-to-vigorously-develop-green-economy Accessed 5-5-2014

However, Chinese green companies, especially privately-held ones, are facing difficulties in gaining support from capital markets and depend mainly on funds and subsidies provided by the government. Industry experts are advising these companies to seek funding sources outside of the country, including sovereign investment and national funds. The Swiss government, for example, has established funds to support the development of the low carbon sector in China.¶ During the recent 4th China International Forum on Green Development held in Guangxi province, industry experts gave speeches on a wide range of subjects, including energy conservation, emission reduction, corporate responsibility and green energy. The cities' commitments to reduce emissions play an important role in China’s green development. "According to official statistics, nearly three quarters of China's carbon dioxide emissions are released from its cities annually, and the top 100 cities make up 51.3 percent of the total emissions per year," said Niu Wenyuan, a counselor to the State Council.¶ An industry analyst pointed out that China would face challenges in raising funds for the development of its green economy. According to the United Nations Environment Program, US$750 billion per year from 2010 to 2030 is required to support the transition to a global green economy — and the figure jumps to US$1.6 trillion per year from 2030 to 2050. From 2007 to 2008, non-OECD countries renewables investment jumped from 29 to 40 percent of the world’s total, with the lion’s share coming from just three countries: China, India and Brazil.

AT: US China War

Domestic issues prevent escalation

Bruce W MacDonald, US Institute of Peace, 2011, Testimony before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission on The Implications of China’s Military and Civil Space Programs, pdf. Accessed 5-5-2014

In the face of this growing Chinese military space challenge, it is easy to assume the worst about Chinese intentions. China seeks to be able to prevail militarily at some point in the future should conflict come, but they see the United States as militarily superior to them and thus would be unlikely to consciously provoke any military conflict. While we should guard against a worst case, we should not treat it as a given. I do not believe China or the PLA is spoiling for a fight with the United States – China has come too far to want to place their substantial economic achievements at risk unless they faced an extraordinary threat to their national security. In addition, China faces serious demographic realities over the next couple of decades, where their ratio of workers to retirees will shrink substantially (the result of their one- child policy), which further underscores China’s need for stability and continued economic growth for years to come. China also has additional needs, and vulnerabilities: • Growing environmental problems and water shortages with no obvious solutions that are growing irritants to the public; • A relentless search for new sources of manufacturing inputs; • An increasingly restive working class that is making new demands for higher wages and political freedoms; • A non-democratic one-party system that leaves its senior leadership constantly looking over its shoulder at possible challenges to its authority, especially in the aftermath of the “Arab Spring”; • Growing citizen anger against corruption and cronyism that seems impossible for the CCP to root out; and many more. These factors are reasons why China is probably not looking for war with the United States, though they also could inadvertently become factors in China’s stumbling into a conflict they would ordinarily not want, through miscalculation or distraction.

It doesn’t go nuclear

James Mulvenon, Deputy Director of the Center for Asia-Pacific Policy at the RAND Corporation, Vice-President of the Intelligence Division at Defense Group Inc. (DGI), Director of DGI’s Center for Intelligence Research and Analysis, 2006, “Chinese Responses to U.S. Military Transformation and Implications for the Department of Defense,” RAND Corporation, http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2006/RAND_MG340.pdf Accessed 5-5-2014

When Chinese strategists contemplate how to affect U.S. deployments, they confront the limitations of their current conventional force, which does not have range sufficient to interdict U.S. facilities or assets beyond the Japanese home islands. Nuclear options, while theoretically available, are nonetheless far too escalatory to be used so early in the conflict. Theater missile systems, which are possibly moving to a mixture of conventional and nuclear warheads, could be used against Japan or Guam, but uncertainties about the nature of a given warhead would likely generate responses similar to the nuclear scenario. According to the predictable cadre of “true believers,” both of the centers of gravity identified above can be attacked using computer network operations (CNO). In the first case, the Chinese information operations (IO) community believes that CNO will play a useful psychological role in undermining the will of the Taiwanese people by attacking infrastructure and economic vitality. In the second case, the Chinese IO community envisions CNO effectively deterring or delaying U.S. intervention and causing pain sufficient to compel Taipei to capitulate before the United States arrives. The remainder of this section outlines how these IO theorists propose operationalizing such a strategy.

AT: US China War

Relations and deterrence prevent escalation to war

Robert Art, Professor of International Relations at Brandeis University and Director of MIT's Seminar XXI Program, 2010 “The United States and the Rise of China: Implications for the Long Haul,” Political Science Quarterly. Accessed 5-5-2014

The workings of these three factors should make us cautiously optimistic about keeping Sino-American relations on the peaceful rather than the warlike track. The peaceful track does not, by any means, imply the absence of political and economic conflicts in Sino-American relations, nor does it foreclose coercive diplomatic gambits by each against the other. What it does mean is that the conditions are in place for war to be a low-probability event, if policymakers are smart in both states (see below), and that an all-out war is nearly impossible to imagine. By the historical standards of recent dominant-rising state dyads, this is no mean feat. In sum, there will be some security dilemma dynamics at work in the U.S.-China relationship, both over Taiwan and over maritime supremacy in East Asia, should China decide eventually to contest America's maritime hegemony, and there will certainly be political and military conflicts, but nuclear weapons should work to mute their severity because the security of each state's homeland will never be in doubt as long as each maintains a seconds trike capability vis-A-vis the other. If two states cannot conquer one another, then the character of their relation and their competition changes dramatically.

Chinese growth is unsustainable – the World Bank says so

David Pierson, staff writer, 2-27-2012, “World Bank to China: Your economic model is 'unsustainable',” LA Times, http://articles.latimes.com/2012/feb/27/business/la-fi-mo-world-bank-china-economy-20120227 Accessed 5-5-2014

The World Bank, taking aim at one of China's most entrenched interest groups, told the country’s top leadership that it had to reform the nation’s powerful state sector to ensure stability in the world’s fastest-growing major economy.¶ China’s economic model is "unsustainable," and the Asian giant is in danger of falling into a so-called "middle-income trap" if it fails to launch meaningful remedies, said World Bank President Robert Zoellick.

China is Resilient

Chinese economy resilient—manufacturing proves

Bloomberg News 10-24-2011 Asia Economic Resilience Seen in China Manufacturing Gauge, Japan Exports http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-24/china-manufacturing-may-expand-for-first-time-in-four-months-index-shows.html Accessed 5-5-2014

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 2.6 percent as of 5:19 p.m. in Tokyo. Stocks in China rallied after the data. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.3 percent to 2,370.33 at the 3 p.m. close. The gauge declined earlier after Premier Wen Jiabao signaled over the weekend that policy makers will maintain an anti-inflation monetary stance. ‘Decisive’ Action The yuan rose 0.17 percent to 6.3732 as of 12:33 p.m. in Shanghai, according to the China Foreign Exchange Trading System. The yen was little changed at 76.21 per dollar at 5:24 p.m. in Tokyo. The currency rose to a post-World War II high of 75.82 last week, prompting Japanese Finance Minister Jun Azumi to signal today he’s ready to intervene in the currency market to stem its gains, saying Japan may take “decisive” steps. Japan’s exports increased 2.4 percent in September from a year earlier as demand for cars and auto parts rose, the Ministry of Finance said in Tokyo today. The median estimate of 26 economists surveyed by Bloomberg was for a 1 percent advance after a 2.8 percent gain in August. In Taiwan, industrial production rose 1.62 percent in September from a year earlier, government data showed today. That was slower than the median of 11 estimates for a 6.1 percent increase. At the same time, the island’s jobless rate fell to 4.27 percent last month compared with economist expectations of a 4.4 percent rate, another report showed. Recession Risk Emerging markets are strong and resilient, Nouriel Roubini, the co-founder and chairman of Roubini Global Economics LLC, said in Jakarta today. He also said there’s a 50 percent probability of recession in the U.S., euro area and the U.K.

Chinese economy resilient—cooperation with Singapore

FE Financial Express 9-3-2012 Cooperation with China makes both economies more resilient: Singapore PM http://www.thefinancialexpress-bd.com/more.php?news_id=142089&date=2012-09-03 Accessed 5-5-2014

SINGAPORE, Sept 2 (Xinhua): The cooperation between Singapore and China makes both economies more resilient, especially in the context of the weakness of global economy, Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said. Speaking in a recent interview with Chinese media ahead of his official visit to China, Lee said he expected the pattern of the bilateral economic cooperation, which has been supported largely by the complementary nature of the two economies, to change in the future as both upgrade their economies. Lee said China is upgrading itself and doing more sophisticated activities, not just labor-intensive manufacturing, but high- skilled technology-intensive manufacturing and some of the services where Singapore and other more developed economies have had a strength. "It's a way the international division of labor works. When one country moves up, the other have to develop new skills to complement the new players so that we can continue to make a living for ourselves," he said. The cooperation between China and Singapore have been expanding fast over the past decades, especially since the establishment of official diplomatic ties in 1990. Bilateral trade grew by 11.2 per cent year on year to 63.5 billion US dollars in 2011, according to Chinese official statisitcs. The bilateral trade in the first half of this year totalled 32 billion US dollars, growing by 1.3 per cent despite the challenging environment. Singapore is the fourth largest foreign investor for the Chinese mainland, with 6.33 billion US dollars of new investment made in 2011. Many Singapore companies, including the home-grown banks, developers, logistics firms and consumer brands, are expanding their operations in the Chinese mainland market. Some of them are involved in the flagship bilateral cooperation projects-from the Suzhou Industrial Park in the 1990s to the recent major projects such as the Tianjin Eco-City and the parks in Guangzhou, Nanjing, Jilin, Chengdu, Xi'an and Henan. Many Chinese companies are using Singapore as a platform to tap the Southeast Asian market, with Chinese investment in Singapore growing by 52 per cent year on year to 1.07 billion US dollars in 2011.

AT: China Key to Global Economy

China isn’t key to the global economy

AFP, 1-27-2008 Accessed 5-5-2014

SHANGHAI, Jan 27, 2008 (AFP) - With fears mounting of a global economic slowdown, some analysts predict developing giants China and India, with their booming growth, will help lessen the impact. Stock market turmoil this week triggered by fears of a U.S. recession in the wake of a massive mortgage crisis has ignited debate over whether Asia’s two rising economic stars are strong enough to power the world economy. This directly challenges the 20th-century economic adage that when the U.S. economy sneezes the rest of the world catches a cold. “What is occurring is the rise of other economies to balance out those of the U.S. — and that has to be a good thing,” said Chris Devonshire-Ellis, a business consultant specializing on China and India trade. “The U.S. has problems but these will be offset against markets elsewhere. The new world order is working,” he told AFP. China saw scorching expansion of 11.4 percent last year, closely followed by India’s 9.4 percent, and the prospects for both economies remain strong. “We expect China and India to support regional growth in the event of a significant slowdown in the U.S.,” said ING Barings Asia economist Prakash Sakpal. Such a shakeup is significant because jobs and livelihoods are at stake, but also because, as financier George Soros wrote in the Financial Times, it could signal a major shift in economic power. “The current financial crisis is less likely to cause a global recession than a radical realignment of the global economy, with a relative decline of the U.S. and the rise of China and other countries in the developing world.” But Zhang Ming, an economist at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, dismisses the notion that the Chinese and Indian economies are independent of U.S. consumption. “If you want to look at who is going to be the motor of global growth then you have to look at who provides the biggest market for the world’s production of goods,” said Zhang. “In the short run America is still strongest. China still has a long way to go.” China, whose 3.4-trillion-dollar economy is about one-third derived from exports, could easily face economic difficulties if it were to lose the 2.5 growth percentage points garnered from trade, said Stephen Green, a Standard Chartered economist. However, Indian exports represent only about 17 percent of its 1.1 trillion dollar gross domestic product, allowing it greater resiliency in the face of a U.S. recession, analysts said. “Our economy is geared to domestic demand. We are insulated so that even if there is a U.S. recession it will not have such a direct impact on the Indian economy,” said Federation of Chambers of Commerce and Industry economic adviser Anjun Roy. But given that India’s share of world trade in 2006 stood at 1.5 percent, it is not in a position to boost the world economy, Roy said, citing official statistics. According to data published by the World Trade Organization, China’s merchandise exports last year totaled 8.0 percent of the world total, while imports stood at 6.4 percent. No cumulative figure was provided. However, Stephen Roach, a leading economist as head of investment bank Morgan Stanley in Asia, said this week that the idea China and India could power the world economy on their own could “turn out to be a fantasy.” Roach, who is forecasting a U.S. recession, also argued in a recent note that when the U.S. consumer is in trouble this has great consequences for the world economy. He calculated that the American consumer spent a combined 9.5 trillion dollars last year while Chinese only laid out one trillion dollars and Indians 650 billion dollars. “It is almost mathematically impossible for China and India to offset a pullback in American consumption,” he said.

Chinese economy is resilient – strong growth and macoeconomic measures

Business Daily Update, 1-26-2006, “China must rely,” Accessed 5-5-2014

For the third consecutive year, the Chinese economy has grown at a rate of about 10 per cent, laying very solid foundations for pressing ahead with the 11th Five-Year Program, from this year. Preliminary estimates indicate China's gross domestic product (GDP) soared to 18.2 trillion yuan (US$2.2 trillion) last year, up 9.9 per cent over the previous year. Though it was marginally lower than the 10.1 per cent growth in 2004, the rate remains impressive given the measures taken to rein in excessive investment in overheated sectors since late 2004. The robust growth demonstrates not only the immense resilience of the Chinese economy as it has survived tough macroeconomic controls, but also its great potential to grow in a more efficient and balanced way. For instance, the country managed to cut consumption of crude and refined oil by 0.5 per cent last year. To fuel similar growth a year ago, the country had to increase oil consumption by 15.3 per cent. The year 2005 marked a successful end to the first five-year period of the 21st century. That the country's per capita GDP reached US$1,700 last year, doubling that in 2000, implies the national economy has fared better than expected in delivering the nation's ambition of quadrupling GDP in the year 2000 by 2020. But while applauding these big strides that China has made in achieving its quantitative economic goals, we should also focus on other challenges that must be overcome if a comprehensively well-off society is to be created.

Chinese Growth Unsustainble

China won’t engage in reforms – prevents sustainable growth

David Pierson, staff writer, 2-27-2012, “World Bank to China: Your economic model is 'unsustainable',” LA Times, http://articles.latimes.com/2012/feb/27/business/la-fi-mo-world-bank-china-economy-20120227 Accessed 5-5-2014

Whether the country’s leaders will act on the recommendations remains to be seen. China is about to embark on a leadership transition this year that traditionally marks a period of policy stasis. However, weak financial conditions in Europe, Japan and the U.S. could force China to change tack sooner than expected.¶ "The case for reform is compelling because China has now reached a turning point in its development path," Zoellick said.¶ "Managing the transition from a middle-income to a high-income country will prove challenging," he said. "Add to this a global environment that will likely remain uncertain and volatile for the foreseeable future, and the need for change assumes even greater importance.”

China’s growth is unsustainable

Jamil Anderlini, reporter in Beijing, 12-23-2010, “China’s growth model ‘unsustainable’,” Financial Times, http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f38e08ce-0e84-11e0-b9f1-00144feabdc0.html#axzz30uGAKatC Accessed 5-5-2014

China’s growth model is unsustainable and the country faces a sudden slowdown unless it undergoes urgent economic and political reforms, according to a renowned Chinese academic and former member of the People’s Bank of China’s monetary policy committee.¶ In a scathing indictment of the country’s extraordinary growth story, Yu Yongding listed rising social tensions, choking pollution, a lack of public services and an over-reliance on exports and investment, particularly in real estate, as threats to the country’s economic future.

Chinese Growth Unsustainable

Breakdown is inevitable if China does not cope with inequality

Jamil Anderlini, reporter in Beijing, 12-23-2010, “China’s growth model ‘unsustainable’,” Financial Times, http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f38e08ce-0e84-11e0-b9f1-00144feabdc0.html#axzz30uGAKatC\ Accessed 5-5-2014

If China cannot change the current system of “capitalism of the rich and powerful” and reduce the sharply widening gap between rich and poor that is “fomenting social tension” then “a serious backlash is brewing”, Mr Yu continued. “Any structural adjustment is painful but the longer the delay, the more painful it will be.”

China’s economic collapse is inevitable

Alan Wheatley, political analyst, 5-23-2011, “Calculating the Coming Slowdown in China,” NYT, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/24/business/global/24iht-inside24.html?_r=0 Accessed 5-5-2014

So the trajectory of China’s growth — a gradual deceleration or an abrupt full stop — matters far beyond its borders.¶ Li Daokui, an adviser to the central bank, said he believed that the economy could maintain annual growth of 9 percent for the next five years.¶ But some economists see the day of reckoning approaching fast.¶ Nouriel Roubini of New York University has warned of a sharp slowdown, most likely after 2013, once it becomes impossible for China to keep increasing fixed investment, the main driver of growth.¶ In my opinion, as I end a six-year stint in Beijing, the odds are that China’s economy can continue to expand for some time and that the government will not have to overhaul its growth model until much later in the decade.

Chinese Growth Unsustainable

China’s former prime minister admits China’s growth is unsustainable

Alan Wheatley, political analyst, 5-23-2011, “Calculating the Coming Slowdown in China,” NYT, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/24/business/global/24iht-inside24.html?_r=0 Accessed 5-5-2014

Back in 2007, Prime Minister Wen Jiabao called the Chinese economy increasingly unstable, unbalanced, uncoordinated and ultimately unsustainable. He has used the same language this year, and there is every chance the description will still apply in another four years.¶ The timing for when China’s growth model will run out of steam is probably the most critical question facing the world economy.

China can’t continue to grow at its current rate

Jamil Anderlini, reporter in Beijing, 12-23-2010, “China’s growth model ‘unsustainable’,” Financial Times, http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f38e08ce-0e84-11e0-b9f1-00144feabdc0.html#axzz30uGAKatC\ Accessed 5-5-2014

In his editorial, Mr Yu described a lack of innovation and creativity as the Chinese economy’s “Achilles heel” and lamented the inefficient use of capital, as reflected by the country’s investment rate of more than 50 per cent.¶ “Some local governments are literally digging holes and then filling them in to ratchet up the GDP,” Mr Yu wrote. “Consequently, there are simply too many luxurious condominiums, magnificent government office buildings and soaring skyscrapers.”¶ While most of Mr Yu’s observations have been expressed before, it is unusual to see such a litany of complaints from such a senior establishment scholar published in state media.¶ His comments even included a call for political reform to help “break the unholy alliance” between government officials and business people.

China’s current pace of growth is unstable

Alan Wheatley, political analyst, 5-23-2011, “Calculating the Coming Slowdown in China,” NYT, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/24/business/global/24iht-inside24.html?_r=0 Accessed 5-5-2014

“Everything that is happening in China today is unsustainable at the current pace,” said Andy Rothman, a China strategist for the brokerage firm CLSA in Shanghai. “That’s not good or bad. It’s just an observation.”¶ The breakneck growth of China’s iron ore consumption five years ago could not last, Mr. Rothman said. Nor could the 2010 pace of car sales. He expects the same will be true at some point of negative real interest rates, housing price growth and inequality.

Painful structural adjustments are necessary to achieve sustainable reform

Jamil Anderlini, reporter in Beijing, 12-23-2010, “China’s growth model ‘unsustainable’,” Financial Times, http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f38e08ce-0e84-11e0-b9f1-00144feabdc0.html#axzz30uGAKatC\ Accessed 5-5-2014

“China’s rapid growth has been achieved at an extremely high cost. Only future generations will know the true price,” Mr Yu wrote in an opinion piece published in the state-controlled China Daily. “[China’s] growth pattern has now almost exhausted its potential. So China has reached a crucial juncture: without painful structural adjustments the momentum of its economic growth could suddenly be lost.”

US Alternative Energy Good

US energy competitiveness is key to economic growth

Ideas Lab, 4-21-2014, “Report: US Needs to Up Its Game in Race for Clean Energy Investment,” http://www.ideaslaboratory.com/2014/04/21/report-us-needs-to-up-its-game-in-race-for-clean-energy-investment/ Accessed 5-5-2014

US trails China and hasn’t topped global rankings since 2009. At stake are a host of benefits including domestic jobs and expanded market share in green technologies.¶ The United States has fallen behind China as the top destination for clean energy investment, and it will need to take action to remain competitive in the multibillion-dollar sector, according to a report from the Center for American Progress.

Clean energy investment is key to jobs

Ideas Lab, 4-21-2014, “Report: US Needs to Up Its Game in Race for Clean Energy Investment,” http://www.ideaslaboratory.com/2014/04/21/report-us-needs-to-up-its-game-in-race-for-clean-energy-investment/ Accessed 5-5-2014

Clean energy investment in the U.S. reached $36.7 billion in 2013, more than double what it was in 2004. However, the country has trailed China in four of the last five years and hasn’t topped the global rankings since 2009. Hanging in the balance are a host of benefits including domestic jobs and expanded market share in green technologies, the report noted.¶ President Barack Obama has sounded the alarm, saying in a speech at Georgetown University last year that countries like China and Germany have gone “all in” on the race for clean energy. He urged policymakers to pave the way for success in the space as more than 100 other countries have established national renewable energy standards.¶ “I believe Americans build things better than anybody else,” he said. “I want America to win that race, but we can’t win it if we’re not in it.”¶ The country already has steady footing in the burgeoning clean energy space. Use of wind and solar power in the U.S. has more than doubled over the last five years, according to the report, and the country has made significant gains in its clean energy inventory.