9th gifs tigge wg



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9th GIFS TIGGE WG

  • 9th GIFS TIGGE WG

  • Geneva

  • 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011

  • TIGGE LAM Report

  • Tiziana Paccagnella

  • with contributions from

  • J. Kacker, J. Chen, C. Saulo

  • and other colleagues


Content

  • TIGGE LAM overall activities

    • New Structure of the Panel
    • The Plan
    • Archiving
  • Link with FDPs and RDPs & Link with the WWRP Mesoscale WG

    • Frost FDP RDP
    • Hymex
  • Activities in Europe

    • EurEPS Project (SRNWP)
    • LAM-EPS meeting & LAMEPS BC project
    • EPS DA meeting > Bologna
    • High resolution precipitation analyses (HIPRECA)
    • Link with SRNWP Interoperability Programme
  • Activities in NA by Josh Hacker

  • Activities in Asia by Jing Chen

  • Activities in SA by Celeste Saulo

  • TIGGE LAM @ ….



TIGGE LAM overall activities



Restructuring of the Panel

  • The Panel has been (and is being) restructured trying to make it more efficient at Regional level.

  • New members have been asked to join the Panel to engage people personally involved in LAM EPS and then in the position to make plans and to take commitments.

  • The Panel has been divided in regional sub-groups:

  • N. America < J. Hacker

  • Asia < J. Chen

  • Europe < T. Paccagnella

    • S. America < C. Saulo
  • Africa < S. Landman

  • Australia/New Zealand



TIGGE LAM Plan

  • The TIGGE LAM plan almost ready.

  • Some more work done especially on the scientific issues.

  • Tiziana and Josh will revise it together during the SRNWP meeting in Tallin next month.

  • Plan on the web in November



Archiving

  • Archiving of high priority parameters on regular lat/lon grids.

  • CMA is starting the archiving of TIGGE LAM HP parameters from CMA Regional system.

  • The archiving of European products at ECMWF has been slowed down due to other priorities at ECMWF.

  • Archiving of TIGGE LAM products on their native grids

  • LAM EPS are going to run at the convective-permitting scale. Products on the native grids should be made available and tools to manage these data should be developed.

  • As regards Europe, this task has been included into the GEO-WOW FP7 < D. Richardson presentation



Link with FDPs and RDPs & Link with the WWRP Mesoscale WG







Link with FDPs and RDPs FROST-2014 Forecast and Research in the Olympic Sochi Testbed



FROST



FROST-2014 Forecast and Research in the Olympic Sochi Testbed

  • WG1: Observations and nowcasting (including Verification)

  • WG Leader: Arcadi Koldaev / Valery Lukyanov / Yuriy Melnichuk (radars)

  • Members: Arcadi Koldaev, Yury Melnichuk, Yong Wang, Paul Joe, George Isaac, Roy Rasmussen, Dmitri Moisseev, Peter Romanov, Anatoly Muravev, IRAM representatives, Gdaly Rivin, Evgeny Vasilev, Pertti Nurmi?

  • WG2: NWP, ensembles and assimilation (including Verification)

  • WG Leader: Michail Tsyrulnikov / , Andrea Montani

  • Members: Stephane Belair, Andrea Montani, Detlev Majewski, Gdaly Rivin, Yong Wang, Roy Rasmussen, Tiziana Paccagnella, Donghi Wang, Anatoly Muravev, Michail Tolstykh, Inna Rozinkina, Pertti Nurmi?

  • WG3: IT including graphical tools, formats, archiving and telecommunication

  • WG Leader: Dmitry Kiktev

  • Members: Alex Kolker, Vladimir Krupchatnikov, Sergei Loubov, Gennady Novikov, Alexander Smirnov

  • WG4: Products, training, end user assessment and social impacts

  • WG Leader: Valery Lukyanov / Evgeny Vasilev

  • Members: Vladimir Oganesian, George Isaac, Anatoly Muravev, Dmitry Moiseev, Pertti Nurmi, Galina Zaimskikh, Inna Rozinkina, Pertti Nurmi.





FDP (Forecast Demonstration Project) ensemble activities

  • SOCHMEL7: limited-area ensemble system based on COSMO

    • (“relocation” of COSMO-LEPS)
    • Horizontal resoluzion: 7 km.
    • Vertical resolution: 40 model levels.
    • Forecast range: 72 hours.
    • Starting time: 00UTC, 12UTC.
    • Ensemble size: 10 members.
    • Boundary conditions: selected ECMWF EPS members.
    • Initial conditions: interpolated from ECMWF EPS members.


Link with WWRP MWFR WG



Activities in Europe



SRNWP-EurEPS-2013-2017 Cooperation on European Limited-area Ensemble Prediction Systems

  • EurEPS - A proposal by the SRNWP Expert Team on Predictability and EPS

  • In the Roadmap for the Forecasting Capability Area of EUMETNET the creation of a Eur-EPS Programme is envisaged

  • A major cooperative effort is required to develop a capability for convection-permitting ensembles in order to address prediction of severe or high-impact weather in a probabilistic framework

  • EurEPS

    • Phase I is proposed to be carried out in 2013, in order to identify properly all the needed technical facility, the requirements for Research and Development to design properly this innovative kind of systems and the potential framework for running the Phase II as a demonstration project
    • Phase II would be executed over a 4-year time frame (2014–2017) as a demonstration project


SRNWP LAM-EPS meeting, Bologna, 22-23 February 2011 Some Outcomes

  • The EUMETNET Forecasting Roadmap has been presented by A. Horanyi: Short-Range EPS is one of the 4 priority areas for cooperation which have been identified

  • Requirements to ECMWF in terms of EPS boundary conditions to drive LAM-EPSs have been discussed.





SRNWP LAM-EPS meeting, Bologna, 22-23 February 2011 Some Outcomes from the minutes

  • It was decided to make an inventory of the status and plans of LAM-EPS activities within SRNWP, based on the review provided by this meeting, highlighting the scientific issues.

  • This inventory would provide the basis to write a common paper, to be submitted to BAMS, where the status of the European contribution to TIGGE-LAM will be presented. Tiziana will contact the editor.



EPS DA meeting > Bologna



HIPRECA: HIgh resolution PREcipitation Analyses for verification as a complement to TIGGE and TIGGE LAM products.

  • The possibility to implement an European archive of high resolution precipitation analyses based on high density network data is being explored. Contacts are established with ECMWF and with other European groups and initiatives with the same objectives.



HIPRECA: HIgh resolution PREcipitation Analyses for verification as a complement to TIGGE and TIGGE LAM products.

  • Criticity > lack of resources

  • Cooperation with other similar initiatives in Europe.

  • A meeting has been organized by Anna Ghelli at ECMWF on the 2nd Dec 2010. This meeting was aimed to coordinate this activity with the EUMETGRID/EUMETNET project leaded by Ole Tveito from Met.No. Participants: Anna Ghelli (ECMWF), Ole Tveito (Met.No), Dan Hollis (MetOffice), Tiziana Paccagnella (ARPA-SIMC TIGGE LAM). This initiative should also link with other ongoing projects like EURO4M and ARCIS (Northern Italy initiative)

  • Possibility to set-up a coordinated activity (to be hopefully funded by submitting a project proposal to EU)

  • Ongoing contacts with Ole Tveito.

  • This issue will be raised next week at the MWFR WG meeting in Berlin.



SRNWP Interoperability Programme Coordinator: Rachel North – Met Office



SRNWP Interoperability Programme Coordinator: Rachel North – Met Office

  • Continuation of the SRNWP Programme under discussion

    • Possible deliverables:
      • Maintenance Plan for the Adaptors
      • Extension of the existent SW tools to provide Lateral Boundary Conditions from Global and LAM to LAM
      • Soil aspects and Interoperability of Surface fields
  • The ET EPS and TIGGE LAM have been requested by Rachel North to express their opinions about the different possible options for phase two

  • Next steps (during Autumn):

    • Final agreement among the Programme Partners about the content of the continuation proposal
    • Submission of the proposal to STAC/PFAC and the the EUMETNET Assembly


Activities in NA by Josh Hacker



Activities in NA by Josh Hacker





Activities in Asia by Jing Chen



Asia Regional EPS Activities Jing Chen







CMA Future plans









Researches at MRI/JMA relating to regional EPS



Activities in SA by Celeste Saulo





Now includes 54 model outputs, that combine GCMs, with regional models (mainy ETA-BRAMS, and WRF).

  • Now includes 54 model outputs, that combine GCMs, with regional models (mainy ETA-BRAMS, and WRF).

  • Some models contribute with different members of their ensemble (CPTEC models, for example)

  • Products are available at station points (not maps!)

  • The web page is interactive, and the user can select any model, and any synoptic station and plot surface variables forecasts



Surface temperature according to some models.

  • Surface temperature according to some models.

  • Blue dots are the observations and red curve is the Super Ensemble Mean (bias corrected!)







TIGGE LAM @ ….

  • DRIHMS (Distributed Research Infrastructure for Hydro-Meteorology Study) -First open consultation meeting. Genova 14 Oct. 2010. Limited Area Ensemble Forecasting and TIGGE-LAM” Tiziana Paccagnella

  • EGU 2010 Meeting, Vien. TIGGE, TIGGE LAM and the GIFS T. Paccagnella D. Richardson D. Schuster R. Swinbank Z. Toth S. Worley

  • 4th HYMEX workshop, Bologna, 8-10 June 2010. “HyMeX and TIGGE-LAM”. Laurent Descamps, Andrea Montani, Tiziana Paccagnella

  • QPE QPF Meeting, 2010 Nanjing. Ongoing developments on LIMITED AREA ENSEMBLE FORECASTING and TIGGE LAM Tiziana Paccagnella

  • SOCHI Kick Off Meeting, 2011 Sochi. TIGGE LAM & SOCHI 2014 T. Paccagnella R. Swinbank Z. Toth

  • WWRP JSC Meeting 2011 Geneva

  • EPS DA SRNWP meeting – 2011 Bologna

  • LAM EPS meeting – 2011 Bologna

  • Contribution to the definition of the GEO-WOW FP7 proposal

  • Contribution to THORPEX mid-term report

    • ERM – Sarah Jones
    • TIGGE – R. Swinbank and Zoltan Toth


Thank you!

  • Thank you!



SUPPORTING AND COMPLEMENTARY SLIDES



SRNWP-EurEPS-2013-2017 Cooperation on European Limited-area Ensemble Prediction Systems

  • EurEPS - A proposal by the SRNWP Expert Team on Predictability and EPS



The new EurEPS proposal To be presented at the EUMETNET Assembly on November 22nd

  • In the Roadmap for the Forecasting Capability Area of EUMETNET the creation of a Eur-EPS Programme is envisaged

  • A major cooperative effort is required to develop a capability for convection-permitting ensembles in order to address prediction of severe or high-impact weather in a probabilistic framework

  • EurEPS - Phase I is proposed to be carried out in 2013, in order to identify properly all the needed technical facility, the requirements for Research and Development to design properly this innovative kind of systems and the potential framework for running the Phase II as a demonstration project



Phase I

  • Phase I will:

  • build whenever possible on existing know-how and expertise, available within the various European NWP Consortia;

  • plan the use of results from SRNWP-I and SRNWP-V project for verification and interoperability of EPS;

  • schedule scientific and technical experiments for later to design a convection-permitting ensemble system;

  • consider the most suitable initial state, its ensemble spread, the models errors and lower-boundary uncertainties, the available nesting techniques;

  • meet the requirements of all the involved partners, to provide a suitable system, applicable by the different Meteorological Centres, which will permit to significantly improve the forecasts of high impact weather

  • Analyze and evaluate:

    • state-of-the-art of LAM-EPS scientific methodologies for very high-resolution ensemble, including technical constraints;
    • available and future computer resources scenarios;
    • consider the necessary products for key end-users
    • deliver the EurEPS Phase II project proposal for the EUMETNET Advisory Committees


Phase II

  • Phase II would be executed over a 4-year time frame (2014–2017) as a demonstration project that, outside of a fully operational context, would hopefully show the usefulness of its results towards fundamental case studies and the likely implementability of a full EurEPS project with a distributed load of responsibility among Members when adequate computing resources might be allocated.



LAMEPS BC project










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