Why wiod? Gtap, oecd, ide, usitc, …

Why WIOD? GTAP, OECD, IDE, USITC, …..

• Why WIOD? GTAP, OECD, IDE, USITC, …..

• Construction process in past year

• Challenges ahead

• Aim: to inform and invite comments

Production and consumption of Greenhouse gas emissions

• Production and consumption of Greenhouse gas emissions

• Nakano et al. (2009, OECD), Davis and Caldena (2010, PNAS)
• Quarter of produced CO2 emissions is not ‘consumed’ in same place
• OECD net import is about 15-20% of own production
• China, Russia and Middle East are large net exporters

• Trade in value added

• Series of studies, mostly two regions (US and rest of world)
• Trade imbalance in value added terms much less than in gross terms
• Different angle on competitiveness and trade policy effects
• Link international trade and (wage) inequality within countries

• Almost all studies so far are lacking time-series perspectives

Supply and use tables as the basis

• Supply and use tables as the basis

• Time-series benchmarked on National Accounts data

• Explicit attention for (trade in) services

• Constant price tables

• Satellite accounts (socio-economic and environmental)

• Based on offical statistics with maximum of transparancy in calculations

SUTs and IOTs in current and constant prices

• SUTs and IOTs in current and constant prices

• Harmonized national supply and use tables (purchasers’ and basic price)
• Bilateral trade flows of goods and services
• Inter-country SUTs
• Inter-country IO tables

• Socio-economic accounts : labour and capital types

• Environmental accounts : energy, air emissions, natural resources

• The tables in the WIOD-database will cover period from 1995 to 2006:

• 27 EU countries and 13 other major countries

• 35 industries and 59 products

EU-27

• EU-27

• plus13 non-EU:

• - Canada - China

• - United States - India

• - Brazil - Japan

• - Mexico - South Korea

• - Turkey - Taiwan

• - Russia - Indonesia

• - Australia

National Accounts data is revised over time

• National Accounts data is revised over time

• Revisions of basic data
• Reclassification of activities
• Methodological changes
• Change in classifications

• But this is not (always) followed by revisions in (public) SUT data, in particular outside Europe

SUTs time-series (RUG, IPTS, HTWG)

• SUTs time-series (RUG, IPTS, HTWG)

• Trade in goods and services (WIIW)

• Inter-country IO tables (RUG, WIIW)

• Socio-economic accounts (RUG): building upon EU KLEMS project

• Environmental accounts (IPTS): building upon EXIOPOL project

1. Time-series of SUTs at purchasers’ prices

• 1. Time-series of SUTs at purchasers’ prices

• Extrapolation and benchmarking of SUTs to National Accounts statistics:
• Total Final demand by type
• Total Export and total Import
• Value added and gross output by industry
• Based on SUT-RAS method (Temurshoev and Timmer 2009)

• 2. From SUTs at purchasers’ prices to basic prices

• Construction of margins of wholesale, retail, motor, transport and net taxes at product level
• Estimation of valuation matrices based on structure in margins (e.g. no retail margins on intermediate uses)
• At later stage offical margin matrices, if available

• 3. From national to inter-country SUTs

• Breakdown of Use table into domestic and imported (by delivering country)
• Relying on imports from international trade statistics
• Not simple proportional method, but distinction between intermediate, consumer and capital goods. This was based on a new classification of HS6-digit products to end-use
• In later stage use import tables from NSIs if available

• 4. From SUTs to inter-country input-output table

• Technology assumptions
• Rest of World: exports to RoW is calculated as residual and can become negative

• 5. From current price to constant price tables

• National deflators
• Based on industry gross output deflators, and row wise deflation of SUT
• At later stage add in more information from national accounts (final demand deflators, intermediate input deflators, import/export deflators)
• International deflators (PPPs): World Bank ICP expenditure PPPs adjusted and allocated to industries (for 2005)

Harmonisation SUTs

• Harmonisation SUTs

• Industry and product classification
• FISIM
• Missing or confidential observations
• Ad-hoc adjustments for each country

• Time series of exports and imports at product level

• Total Export and total Import from NatAcc (goods and services seperately if possible)
• Distribution over products from columns in SUTs
• Movement between SUT years based on international trade data trends (at product level)

• Time-series of changes in inventories

• Time-series of margins: trade, transportation and net tax

Data at industry-level that matches SUTs:

• Data at industry-level that matches SUTs:

• Employment and wages by skill-level (low/medium/high),and for OECD also age and gender distinction
• Investment by industry and type (8 assets, including ICT)
• Sources:
• EU KLEMS database November 2009 release for OECD (www.euklems.org)
• wide range of labour, household and capital-surveys for other countries in cooperation with local teams (World KLEMS project)

Main innovations in WIOD

• Main innovations in WIOD

• Timeseries data
• Methodological improvements (e.g. SUT-RAS; import tables)
• Based on official data with transparant flow of adjustments
• Integrated socio-economic and environmental accounts
• Database will be made public
• Including basic data so user can make alternative choices
• parts of data public in 2011
• full data in 2012

During project period

• During project period

• Constant price tables
• Trade in services
• Russia and China accounts
• Revisions triggered by user feedback

• Long-term

• Upcoming revisions in System of National Accounts and industrial classifications
• SEEA and environmental accounts
• Institutionalize this type of work

WP1-3: Construction of harmonized supply and use tables, national input-output tables, price deflators, trade flows and intercountry input-output tables

• WP1-3: Construction of harmonized supply and use tables, national input-output tables, price deflators, trade flows and intercountry input-output tables

• WP4: Construction of environmental satellite accounts (energy use, greenhouse gas emissions, etc.)

• WP5: Construction of socio-economic satellite accounts (skill levels, investment, accumulation of intangibles)

• WP6: Methodological research

• WP7-9: Development of new models and extension/adaptation of models with track record within EC

University of Groningen (The Netherlands)

• University of Groningen (The Netherlands)

• Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (Sevilla, Spain)

• Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche (Vienna, Austria)

• Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (Mannheim, Germany)

• Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (Vienna, Austria)

• Konstanz University of Applied Sciences (Germany)

• The Conference Board Europe (Brussels, Belgium)

• CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (The Hague, The Netherlands)

• Institute of Communication and Computer Systems (Athens, Greece)

• Central Recherche SA (Paris, France)

• * Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (Paris France)

Available as of June, 15 (!!!! PRELIMINARY DATA !!!!)

• Available as of June, 15 (!!!! PRELIMINARY DATA !!!!)

• Timeseries SUTs, current price (purchasers’ price)
• Energy use by type and CO2 emissions
• Other air emissions (EU only)
• Bilateral trade in goods (not mirrored) and services (BoP codes)
• Output and employment time-series from Nat Accounts

• Available end of August

• Timeseries SUTs, current price (basic price)
• Timeseries SUTs, constant price
• Inter-country SUT and IO tables
• Other air emissions (all countries)
• Bilateral trade in goods and services (WIOD codes)
• Updates and corrections of June 15 database